MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 KCAR is in a hole right now between great snow bands. This is actually comical now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 KCAR is in a hole right now between great snow bands. This is actually comical nowThey did manage 0.06" last hour but I'm holding on for dear life with precip now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 They did manage 0.06" last hour but I'm holding on for dear life with precip now Yeah, that definitely helps the higher end camp. The only saving grace is when the storm pulls away, it holds the banding on the back side together and drags it right through KCAR. That can happen because they are right in the thick of the best banding right now, but that area will be losing the best UL support in the next hour or two based upon Mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah, that definitely helps the higher end camp. The only saving grace is when the storm pulls away, it holds the banding on the back side together and drags it right through KCAR. That can happen because they are right in the thick of the best banding right now, but that area will be losing the best UL support in the next hour or two based upon Mesoanalysis Only 0.02" the next hour. Radar presentation looks a lot worse than it did last hour too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Only 0.02" the next hour. Radar presentation looks a lot worse than it did last hour too Yeah, this is pretty much all she wrote for this system. Final tally looks to be near 0.80. That's a bummer for everyone that went higher with the precip. I think the USL 22z score a coup here so far. Pretty much everything right on target except the high. I need the low and the winds now to save me. I don't think 1st place is an option anymore, but finishing top 10 would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah, this is pretty much all she wrote for this system. Final tally looks to be near 0.80. That's a bummer for everyone that went higher with the precip. I think the USL 22z score a coup here so far. Pretty much everything right on target except the high. I need the low and the winds now to save me. I don't think 1st place is an option anymore, but finishing top 10 would be niceIts going to be cutting it very close. The low and winds will be crucial for me but I'm feeling oddly good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Its going to be cutting it very close. The low and winds will be crucial for me but I'm feeling oddly good Good luck my friend. I'm trying to get back to top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't think I got that 28 knots, but I'm pretty happy with high, low, and precip. At least my score barely below consensus, but it's still a drop city for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Finally a good streak for me to end the city. 38/28/24/0.83 should be the verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Finally a good streak for me to end the city. 38/28/24/0.83 should be the verification.I'm not sure what happened with the verification because this is what I thought it would be. Instead they have 36/28/24/0.75 as the final. Doesn't make any sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm not sure what happened with the verification because this is what I thought it would be. Instead they have 36/28/24/0.75 as the final. Doesn't make any sense to me. That's because they only took only the wind verification of the climo report. Somebody will need to bug them that both the temp and precip verification is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 That's because they only took only the wind verification of the climo report. Somebody will need to bug them that both the temp and precip verification is incorrect. I'm sure that happened before too and then they eventually changed it. Pretty strange they go off climo all forecast period and neglect it now. Just want some consistency. Oh well, I still had a damn good score for the city, so I'll just walk. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 That's because they only took only the wind verification of the climo report. Somebody will need to bug them that both the temp and precip verification is incorrect. Yeah, I'm definitely going to be sending an email. The verification is obviously incorrect for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah, I'm definitely going to be sending an email. The verification is obviously incorrect for some reason. Yeah it should be 38/28/24/0.81" unless I can't add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah it should be 38/28/24/0.81" unless I can't add 0.83", actually, but ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Finally a good streak for me to end the city. 38/28/24/0.83 should be the verification. It took me awhile to figure out this city, but it's nice to go from 5.11 all the way to 0.12 in few days. I'm pretty happy with that score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 0.83", actually, but ya. I added again and still got 0.81" from the 6hr totals.Guess this is why I shouldn't add a math minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I added again and still got 0.81" from the 6hr totals. Guess this is why I shouldn't add a math minor I also got 0.81". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I added again and still got 0.81" from the 6hr totals. Guess this is why I shouldn't add a math minor I also got 0.81". Yep, you're right. Apparently I can't add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Interesting forecast for tomorrow. Looks like a 06z high and a 06z low. Cold front moves through maybe 09z-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philly2034 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Is there a website that you can go to, to see a consensus weather forecast: that is, an average of accuweather, the weather channel, weather bug, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Is there a website that you can go to, to see a consensus weather forecast: that is, an average of accuweather, the weather channel, weather bug, etc? No I don't think so......maybe someone could code a program to do it though.....not that I would want it. Try this: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml Type in the four letter K indentifier on the right side (in lower case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 There are two weatherflow sensors near ABI to the southwest of the ASOS, but they are on water towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Spread tomorrow should be huge, me think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Spread tomorrow should be huge, me think... I could literally see the high being between the upper 40's and upper 60's at 6z, depending on when exactly the front gets there. The NAM appears a bit too slow to get the front through IMO, although the HRRR and RAP are in pretty good agreement on 6-7z, which would mean a warm high. One concern is if I remember right from Norman last year, cold front plunging in from the north in the southern Plains tend to be a bit faster than modelled...looking at the last several RAP and HRRR runs, they've inched faster with the front a little bit each run, although they're still safely north of ABI at 6z on the 21z runs, so I'm not sure it can trend fast enough to get in there by 6z...we'll see, there will be a huge spread I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I could literally see the high being between the upper 40's and upper 60's at 6z, depending on when exactly the front gets there. The NAM appears a bit too slow to get the front through IMO, although the HRRR and RAP are in pretty good agreement on 6-7z, which would mean a warm high. One concern is if I remember right from Norman last year, cold front plunging in from the north in the southern Plains tend to be a bit faster than modelled...looking at the last several RAP and HRRR runs, they've inched faster with the front a little bit each run, although they're still safely north of ABI at 6z on the 21z runs, so I'm not sure it can trend fast enough to get in there by 6z...we'll see, there will be a huge spread I agree. ABI is pretty far south compared to central Oklahoma. I think the front will be slowing its rate of speed soon. Also this is a dry fropa not one with a squall line like last years in OKC. Also it has sped up during the day because the front has been strengthening all afternoon with diabatic heating in front of it and cloudy skies with a cold pool behind it. That temp gradient has only gotten stronger, but with the sun going down that temperature gradient will be slowly decreasing from it's peak because diabatic heating effects will go away. So the speed should trend down from here on in I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 62/33/29/0 Pretty much if the fropa is before 6z, that's it for Abilene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 59/31/26/0 Looked like the front is running a bit ahead of schedule so I was afraid to go into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 HOLY SPREAD BATMAN! WOW! That's impressive. I chose to go on the warmer side with the Euro /USL 63/35/25/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 68/31/31/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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