Mallow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Climo has been way off with snow depth this week. Use NOHRSC products for a better guess of the snow depth or lack thereof. Edit: 20z maps show little to no snow on the ground. I highly doubt the ground is covered. Probably only snow piles left. I'm not saying they ACTUALLY have snow on the ground, but that's the official number out of the NWS. So if the NWS determines whether or not to do a liquid equivalent measurement based on whether they have snow on the ground or not, that's the number I'd assume they'd be looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/29/24/.90 Potential for some huge swings tomorrow, although with the weight of 7 days it will be minimized as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/29/27/1.25. Only gamble is precip. Hoping wetter consistency sticks better to the bucket even with high winds tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 37/27/24/0.84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/28/22/0.90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/27/28/1.35" 25+ knots should be doable. Went aggressive for precip because I figured I would need to if I wanted a chance to get above consensus. Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, there looks to be about a 10 hour window (~8z-18z) where moderate to heavy snow is a realistic possibility for a large portion of that window. They'll be just north of nose of very strong 500mb vorticity most of the day and near/just north of the 700mb low track, so they should be close to the axis of heaviest snow. Figured a 10 hour window of .1"+/hr precip rates and looked at some model QPFs and came up with that. The snow shouldn't all blow out of the bucket but some may, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Didn't think about the consistency aspect. Damn. 36/27/22/0.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/27/27/1.07 The upper level dynamics for this storm are going to be pretty impressive, but the best of the storm will be in a good 6-8 hour window in the early to late morning period. There will be decent banding structures within the comma head that could lead to quick down bursts of precipitation in the form of wet snow. The truly cold air behind the system doesn't make it's way to the surface until after the storm passes and the strong gradient will keep the temperatures from falling rapidly immediately after the system. The winds aloft around 925 mb according to Nam bukfit are around 35-40 kts during the height of the event. Any substantial banding can bring some of those winds down to the surface and there would be you higher wind potential. The only fly in the ointment I see is the best banding structure to be just south of the forecast area, in which case, the totals more in the 0.70-0.90 range would be more formidable. This will be impressive to watch unfold regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/27/28/1.35" 25+ knots should be doable. Went aggressive for precip because I figured I would need to if I wanted a chance to get above consensus. Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, there looks to be about a 10 hour window (~8z-18z) where moderate to heavy snow is a realistic possibility for a large portion of that window. They'll be just north of nose of very strong 500mb vorticity most of the day and near/just north of the 700mb low track, so they should be close to the axis of heaviest snow. Figured a 10 hour window of .1"+/hr precip rates and looked at some model QPFs and came up with that. The snow shouldn't all blow out of the bucket but some may, so we'll see. Talk about being on the same page OHweather haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 As for the higher wind numbers (26kts+), I definitely see the opportunity. The only thing that kept me from going high was that a couple previous "analogs" (late Nov 2008 and 2009) had similar MOS winds, and argued for 21-24kts tomorrow. We'll see, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Talk about being on the same page OHweather haha And me lmao. Precip in my opinion is the only thing I'm not confident in. Everything else I like. Even my 29F low. Going with consistency as that was how low they got in their first Nor'easter that dumped a lot of snow on them. I guess this time they could be 1F colder but we'll see. Strong winds and low clouds have plagued this city both weeks and we have seen the low refuse to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/29/25/0.81" Why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 And me lmao. Precip in my opinion is the only thing I'm not confident in. Everything else I like. Even my 29F low. Going with consistency as that was how low they got in their first Nor'easter that dumped a lot of snow on them. I guess this time they could be 1F colder but we'll see. Strong winds and low clouds have plagued this city both weeks and we have seen the low refuse to drop. This is very true and yeah you definitely were on the same page haha. I didn't want to go as high on precip just because the gamble at this point for me isn't worth it with a trophy at stake. I wanted to give myself some leeway just in case the precip doesn't fully pan out. As far as the low goes, I put 27 just because if the storm exits a little quicker, they might fall that extra degree or two. The NAM bufkit was around 28-29 for 6z and 27 at 7z, so I took the plunge. If I can hit it, that would be huge. It's pretty bunched at the top. Should be a crazy finish to this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/29/25/0.81" Why not Very close to mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 As for the higher wind numbers (26kts+), I definitely see the opportunity. The only thing that kept me from going high was that a couple previous "analogs" (late Nov 2008 and 2009) had similar MOS winds, and argued for 21-24kts tomorrow. We'll see, though! I actually went back and looked at the RAP profile from 16z Sunday to see what winds were like during that storm and I found that they had like 30 kts at 970 mb. That's about what they ended up mixing down fully (35G45 in mph). This time I saw only around 20 kts at that level. I suppose though like Millville was saying, if they get into the core of the CCB then all bets are off and they can get a 26-28 kt sustained wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/28/25/0.85 I did this forecast early before 22z USL came in lower with precip. I saw RAP and HRRR being pretty low so I went way under 1"+ most models had at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 38/28/25/0.85 I did this forecast early before 22z USL came in lower with precip. I saw RAP and HRRR being pretty low so I went way under 1"+ most models had at that time. Yeah I like less than 1" QPF tomorrow. I think a perfect forecast from me might actual give me a chance tomorrow, so I'd like to believe I have a chance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Come on rain. Get in there before 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Yeah I like less than 1" QPF tomorrow. I think a perfect forecast from me might actual give me a chance tomorrow, so I'd like to believe I have a chance lol I'm trying to pull off a miracle by getting above consensus after having score of ~6.20 after Day 6. I'm all the way up to 1.90 and I should crack consensus with a good forecast tomorrow... hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Even with the 6z OBS at 37F we still managed a 38 today. So far they've had 0.42" of precip. Today will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maybe few more hours of snow judging by radar so I think under 1" is very likely for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Wow. Absolutely blew it today.........39/26/24/1.25" Dropped from 34 to 245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Maybe few more hours of snow judging by radar so I think under 1" is very likely for today. I think we have a few more hours of good steady precipitation with one of the best banding features about to move into the area, so if they are going to pick up a good deal of precipitation, it would be this upcoming time frame. They are near 0.50 now so an hour or two in the heavier bands could pop them up near 0.8-0.9 by noon and just some smaller accumulation after that till it completely stops. Does look like they'll receive just under an inch, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I think we have a few more hours of good steady precipitation with one of the best banding features about to move into the area, so if they are going to pick up a good deal of precipitation, it would be this upcoming time frame. They are near 0.50 now so an hour or two in the heavier bands could pop them up near 0.8-0.9 by noon and just some smaller accumulation after that till it completely stops. Does look like they'll receive just under an inch, but we'll see. Agree with all of your points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Agree with all of your points.Well, all my points seem to be falling apart at the seams haha. Oh well. I need the winds and low to cooperate now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well, all my points seem to be falling apart at the seams haha. Oh well. I need the winds and low to cooperate now Haha, it happens I think we'll be around 0.80 by the time it's over which is good for me at least. I'm with you on winds because we both went pretty high at 27-28 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 We're at 0.62" which means I have .2" to go. So long as the wind and low cooperate I'll end up top 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 After the disaster that was week 1 for me (was in 924th place with a +6.64 after day 4), days 6-8 finally went my way. Looking like I'll finish ahead of national consensus, which, after week 1, I'm more than happy to accept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 That band to the east and southeast of KCAR is just sitting there mocking all of us who put high precip. It's like it knew or something. Mother Nature is such a tease haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I need the following 3 to happen to take 2nd in Cat 4: 1.) Low temp of 29F or higher 2.) Winds of 23kts or greater 3.) Precip between 0.75-0.82" Bottom line is I shouldn't have gone 18F for that one low this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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