OHweather Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Looks like it's just moving in now. http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=LTX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.3673913043478261&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240¢erx=344.2011834319526¢ery=203.25443786982248&transx=-55.798816568047414&transy=-36.74556213017752&showlabels=0&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=23537696&lat=34.24169922&lon=-77.94360352&label=Wilmington%2C+NC Yes, SE winds at 8 knots and temp down to 77 now. They somehow managed 11 knots yesterday with nothing higher than 7 knots on any hourly ob, so I'm hoping that something like that occurs today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Yes, SE winds at 8 knots and temp down to 77 now. They somehow managed 11 knots yesterday with nothing higher than 7 knots on any hourly ob, so I'm hoping that something like that occurs today too. The sea breeze tends to be less gusty. Usually your higher winds come on the onset of it. I don't think anything higher than 10 knots today, but we'll see in a bit with climo due out in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The sea breeze tends to be less gusty. Usually your higher winds come on the onset of it. I don't think anything higher than 10 knots today, but we'll see in a bit with climo due out in less than an hour. It looks like it hit between the 19-20z obs, although probably closer to the 20z ob per the radar. We'll see soon either way! I'd take 10 knots, as long as it's not 8 or 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I almost got my 0.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It looks like it hit between the 19-20z obs, although probably closer to the 20z ob per the radar. We'll see soon either way! I'd take 10 knots, as long as it's not 8 or 9. Yesterday's climo said that the 11 knot sustained came from synoptic flow. Since the water temperature and air temperature difference aren't that huge, I would think nothing more than 10 knots with the sea breeze. I just looked at stations to the south and east of Wilmington. Found a 13mph sustained at Kure Beach but it is decently south. Found an 11mph sustained at Mercer Pier but its at 50ft agl and ILM sits 32ft agl. Best bet is 9-10 knots by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Yesterday's climo said that the 11 knot sustained came from synoptic flow. Since the water temperature and air temperature difference aren't that huge, I would think nothing more than 10 knots with the sea breeze. I just looked at stations to the south and east of Wilmington. Found a 13mph sustained at Kure Beach but it is decently south. Found an 11mph sustained at Mercer Pier but its at 50ft agl and ILM sits 32ft agl. Best bet is 9-10 knots by the looks of it. That seems reasonable. Kure is right on the water too and ILM is a bit inland. Hopefully they put out the climo soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Climo is 83F and 10 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 83/64/18/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Looks like I generally agree with Mallow... 83/63/18/0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 85/63/18/0. Precip is going to be luck tomorrow so taking a shot at zero b/c timing looks after 6z like hi res models are showing but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 83/63/19/0.01 For Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 83/64/15/.12C'mon precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Well that escalated quickly. 69F to 76F in one hour, not bad! But only up to 78F this hour. I'm guessing my 82F is a bit low (83F-84F seems a bit more likely to me), but watch the convective clouds and seabreeze carefully this afternoon. Thunder, not so sure it's a luck in this city... I've found some helpful tools. Well hitting the high versus being 1 degree off, to me that's luck. Tomorrow though... tomorrow's not luck. I went... 83/63/19/0.04 Thinking that WAA will be counteracted by the seabreeze coming in earlier and just wind off the ocean in general for the high staying 83. Clear tonight under the mid-level ridge axis, but dews were 2 degrees higher than they were yesterday when I was forecasting a little before 23z. I'm leading the pack at Valpo on wind, but with 850's approaching 20 kts at the end of peak heating (and then of course continuing to increase after that), and a well-mixed PBL before clouds move in (hopefully right after peak heating), I think we could mix down some higher gusts. (The momentum transfer tool in BUFKIT was hitting 24 kts on the 18z NAM). Precip? Eh, i just took the 15z SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 83/63/15/0.08 Look like I'm not losing or gaining lot of points when it come to me vs. consensus tomorrow, although high winds would help me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 83/62/13/0 really hoping for high by 18z / clouds move in before low lvl wind fields pick up. should have def went higher on winds by 3-5 knts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Went 84/65/19/0 Hoping stronger SSW winds keep the sea breeze from coming in from the east tomorrow. Hoping the light southerly breezes tonight stay up just enough to keep dews from falling and keep lows up. With boundary layer average winds of 20+ knots tomorrow evening and winds at the top of the boundary layer getting close to 20 knots by late afternoon am thinking winds in the high teens to near 20 knots are doable. The rain either gets there before 6z or doesn't. Am leaning slower as the front will still be well west and most hi-res models don't show much getting in there before 6z. Possible fly in the ointment is the 0z 4km NAM and recent HRRR runs showing some showers developing nearby in the middle of the night tonight...am hoping they either don't develop or don't hit ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Went a bit bold for today. Rooting for the sea breeze. 81/63/15/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I think it's going to rain later. None of the hi-res models that keep ILM dry have storms this strong and far east by 15-16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I think it's going to rain later. None of the hi-res models that keep ILM dry have storms this strong and far east by 15-16z.It is going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 It is going to be close.The storms have weakened to a pretty thin line of moderate rain, so if that weakening continues it's not hopeless. Assuming the winds get to 19 knots I'd still move up a good amount even if it rains and even if the temps get to like 85, although I'd move up pretty high if it manages to not rain so I'm still hoping haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Still looks pretty close call on precip. Too close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Looks good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Looks good now. Yes. Hoping the winds come up over the next couple of hours and at least get close to my 19 knots. 18 knots would probably be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Yes. Hoping the winds come up over the next couple of hours and at least get close to my 19 knots. 18 knots would probably be ok. I can't see any higher than 16 knots. Winds just never got going and I have 18 for my forecast. Edit: Good thing winds still got an hour until 5z to get up more even though it will be 1am local but climo comes in for 12am DST so that would be 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I can't see any higher than 16 knots. Winds just never got going and I have 18 for my forecast. Edit: Good thing winds still got an hour until 5z to get up more even though it will be 1am local but climo comes in for 12am DST so that would be 1am. Yeah, the 5z ob will clue us in on the wind soon. I saw Myrtle Beach was sustained at 18 and gusting to 25 knots at 4:30z, so hoping winds increase at least a bit at ILM. I'd settle for 17 knots but really want 18+ Edit: Only 10 knots for the 5z ob. Were 13 knots last hour. So, 18+ knots looks highly unlikely. They usually don't put out the climo until 5-6AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Yeah, the 5z ob will clue us in on the wind soon. I saw Myrtle Beach was sustained at 18 and gusting to 25 knots at 4:30z, so hoping winds increase at least a bit at ILM. I'd settle for 17 knots but really want 18+ Edit: Only 10 knots for the 5z ob. Were 13 knots last hour. So, 18+ knots looks highly unlikely. They usually don't put out the climo until 5-6AM. More like 544am is when they put out the overnight climo. And the precip goose looks to be cooked or close to it. Freaking thunderstorms popped out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 More like 544am is when they put out the overnight climo. And the precip goose looks to be cooked or close to it. Freaking thunderstorms popped out of nowhere. It's going to be extremely close as to whether or not that gets there before the 6z ob. 20 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 No precip on the 6z METAR! Even if I get 1.5 or 2 error points on the wind the lack of precip sort of offsets that. Not a bad end to week one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I can't remember the rule--precip goes down as zero even if they measured after 23:53, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Boy did I luck out putting zero precip for yesterday. I made my updated forecast at the Orioles game 1 match up at 730 between innings. I still ended up doing pretty well. Sitting at 53 right now and can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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