AppsRunner Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Magic #50F means I make it up above consensus again. Gonna be a wild last day for this city too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Does anyone know if KCAR will do snow core samples like Grand Rapids? I am pretty sure they didn't for the 11/1-11/2 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Does anyone know if KCAR will do snow core samples like Grand Rapids? I am pretty sure they didn't for the 11/1-11/2 storm. I think the snow cores are only done if there is already snow on the ground to begin with. Don't know if they got any left so if its bare ground I'd think that it isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Finally a pretty good forecast in this city for me. Still need two more of them to make up for the disaster that was last week... wish me luck! I'm going to need it. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I think the snow cores are only done if there is already snow on the ground to begin with. Don't know if they got any left so if its bare ground I'd think that it isn't going to happen. Alright, so that means we'll be playing "gauge games." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 44/34/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 43/35/11/0 Not confident (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 44/34/12/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 44/33/11/0.03. Felt OK with all of the numbers but again there's a really tight cluster. Need a 44 and at least a tiny amount of precip to beat consensus tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 44/34/13/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 43/34/11/0.04 Don't know why I put that much precip. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 45/31/12/0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 44/34/13/0 Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 41/33/12/0.14, precip is more of a gamble then an actual forecast. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Considered going higher on the low (like 38F). Kinda wishing I did right now. Those low clouds look like they mean business. EDIT: Though then I'd have to be concerned about a late 06z low, as it'll probably be ~35-37F by then. NOW I'm remembering why I stuck with 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Considered going higher on the low (like 38F). Kinda wishing I did right now. Those low clouds look like they mean business. EDIT: Though then I'd have to be concerned about a late 06z low, as it'll probably be ~35-37F by then. NOW I'm remembering why I stuck with 35F. Yeah I was going to go 36F if there wasn't going to be a possibility of a 06z low tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Went with 44/34/9/0.02 for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 It stinks that alumni can't compete in the tourny.......maybe we should have our own tourny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Already at 44... we'll see if they continue to rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This city has been rough on the kids from Umass Lowell. I'm the only forecaster from th school above the National Consensus and there are only two of us above the local consensus. Talk about getting your butt kicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 This city has been rough on the kids from Umass Lowell. I'm the only forecaster from th school above the National Consensus and there are only two of us above the local consensus. Talk about getting your butt kicked. We have the same going on for Millersville University as well. Three above national and none above local. I'm the only one at our school above 200 right now. This has been a rough city to forecast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 We have the same going on for Millersville University as well. Three above national and none above local. I'm the only one at our school above 200 right now. This has been a rough city to forecast for. Yeah. I'm the only one from UML that is above 340. I think that this city has been awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah. I'm the only one from UML that is above 340. I think that this city has been awesome Oh, I'm enjoying this city a lot. I'm ranked 7th right now overall for the city, but it's been a lot tougher than I was expecting. Tomorrow is going to be a huge moving day with this developing coastal. The spread tomorrow for basically everything should be amusing to see. Of course, it's the final day when I'm trying to fight for a trophy haha. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Oh, I'm enjoying this city a lot. I'm ranked 7th right now overall for the city, but it's been a lot tougher than I was expecting. Tomorrow is going to be a huge moving day with this developing coastal. The spread tomorrow for basically everything should be amusing to see. Of course, it's the final day when I'm trying to fight for a trophy haha. Good luck Yeah. I've made my move up into the top 40. Tomorrow's forecast will be entertaining. Although guidance is remarkably consistent on the qpf for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah. I've made my move up into the top 40. Tomorrow's forecast will be entertaining. Although guidance is remarkably consistent on the qpf for tomorrow. Only thing that worries me is that the Euro is like 1" qpf while the american models are over 1.5". Pretty big difference if you ask me. Plus it being windy tomorrow. How much of that will actually tip the bucket. Only good thing will be possibly it will be the heavy wet variety snow and not super dry high ratio snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Only thing that worries me is that the Euro is like 1" qpf while the american models are over 1.5". Pretty big difference if you ask me. Plus it being windy tomorrow. How much of that will actually tip the bucket. Only good thing will be possibly it will be the heavy wet variety snow and not super dry high ratio snows. I was wondering this same question. Once the storm gets to Caribou's latitude, it seems the storm pulls the best cold air in and turns the situation to a drier type of snow, with the highest ratios the back end of the storm. It's going to be interesting to see how much precipitation will fall in the early morning until 15z. That will be mostly all wet, so they can accumulate a lot of precipitation in that time frame. I'm curious to see how persistent the banding nature will be for the areas in Northern Maine. Normally I don't pay as much of attention as I should for coastals once it gets up into the Maritimes. I know they tend to have lingering precip on the wrap around. This is going to be an interesting spread among everyone nationally for precip, winds and even the low. I think we can all agree it will be an early morning Friday high. Second decent snowfall of the season incoming for the region last 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Only thing that worries me is that the Euro is like 1" qpf while the american models are over 1.5". Pretty big difference if you ask me. Plus it being windy tomorrow. How much of that will actually tip the bucket. Only good thing will be possibly it will be the heavy wet variety snow and not super dry high ratio snows. Or will they do a melted liquid equivalent like they did in Grand Rapids and throw us all for a loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Or will they do a melted liquid equivalent like they did in Grand Rapids and throw us all for a loop? But did the Grand Rapids NWS only do that while they had a snow pack b/c I don't remember them doing it when they had bare ground and then the snow came in. Only when they had snow already on the ground is when they began doing it. All of this is confusing. Wish wxchallenge would just ask them to do it regardless. BTW, looks like precip will get in there before 6z and I desperately need it to get above nat con after day 8 with a good forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 But did the Grand Rapids NWS only do that while they had a snow pack b/c I don't remember them doing it when they had bare ground and then the snow came in. Only when they had snow already on the ground is when they began doing it. All of this is confusing. Wish wxchallenge would just ask them to do it regardless. BTW, looks like precip will get in there before 6z and I desperately need it to get above nat con after day 8 with a good forecast for sure. As of last night's climo, Caribou still had 5" of snow on the ground, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 As of last night's climo, Caribou still had 5" of snow on the ground, though... Climo has been way off with snow depth this week. Use NOHRSC products for a better guess of the snow depth or lack thereof. Edit: 20z maps show little to no snow on the ground. I highly doubt the ground is covered. Probably only snow piles left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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