MillvilleWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The high getting above 35 has already benefited me greatly. As long as it doesn't precip at all, I'll stay in 3rd overall. I feel like I'm the only person here even remotely enjoying forecasting for this city haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Damn, I missed a great opportunity to make a comeback today. A forecast of 39/25 would have been huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Damn. All the way to 40. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Rain before 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yep. Certainly wasn't expecting them to get rain with the WARM front. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 As long as it doesn't rain a whole lot, I should barely be above consensus still. It may be my toss city for now, but having my toss city at -0.5 or -1 will (hopefully) help me out later with cumulative scoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 54/33/19/0.17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Sorry Max, I'm the second person in the country who went 54. You'll probably kick my ass on the low again though 54/37/18/0.18 I'm hoping the strengthening southeasterly winds later this evening keep them in the mid to upper 30's after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Ballsy highs ^^ (But props to you if it pans out!) 51/34/15/0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 52/35/17/0.18 It was time to take some risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 47/34/16/0.13 I went a little low on the precip since I feel as though the precipitation totals that come from KCAR are pretty minute compared to the radar depictions. I'm not so sure about my high. I thought about going higher but if they hang onto low clouds all day, it'll be a slower climb. Man Max, you went balls to the wall there on the high. Basically the opposite of my thinking haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 50/35/15/0.20 Not confident in any of them, though obviously I have my reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Wow, I'm like the only one that went low on the high. I'm probably doomed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 50/34/13/0.17" Put almost no thought into it though since I tanked 200+ spots today with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Gfs mixes above 900 tomorrow and euro shows sun by 18z. That combo I like to see stronger winds and warmer temp for the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Got locked out of my room without my phone long enough to miss the forecast. Guidance is going to get blown apart tomorrow (no precip???) so I guess this is my drop city officially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Wow, I'm like the only one that went low on the high. I'm probably doomed Not necessarily. We saw what happened in a similar scenario last week. The only difference I see is they may not have the precip and clouds may not be as thick tomorrow (hence my 50)... but anything from 47 to 52 wouldn't surprise me. 53+ I'd be afraid of the fact that lapse rates are pretty steep between 850 and 950 tomorrow afternoon, and so even if they mix up much higher than forecast, that really only adds a few degrees to the high... maybe. I've been wrong before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Not necessarily. We saw what happened in a similar scenario last week. The only difference I see is they may not have the precip and clouds may not be as thick tomorrow (hence my 50)... but anything from 47 to 52 wouldn't surprise me. 53+ I'd be afraid of the fact that lapse rates are pretty steep between 850 and 950 tomorrow afternoon, and so even if they mix up much higher than forecast, that really only adds a few degrees to the high... maybe. I've been wrong before! Yeah. I can see how it gets higher, but this city has been incredibly annoying to forecast for in general. Just when you think they'll do one thing, it does just the opposite. I'm trying to fight for a trophy, so I can't be too bold on my forecast and go way off the beaten path. I remained fairly conservative and am hoping for the best. The best scenario for me would be to limit the sunshine. When the sun peeks out there, they usually go around to above guidance. When the low cloud deck holds on longer than normal, which it has done numerous times so far, they sit at or 2 degrees below guidance. I checked hypothetical tomorrow and as long as the precip isn't over a 0.25, I'll end up in first, but man does it get bunched up toward the top. Good luck on tomorrow Mallow and everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 51/34/16/.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Wish the rain would slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Crap its gon rain more than my forecast whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Evaporational cooling FTL...34F at 6z... Finals for day 5 will be 41/25/12(13?)/0.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Need that high n wind tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Damn, that 34F for 1 hour had to be right at 06z. 35F would have been great for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Damn, that 34F for 1 hour had to be right at 06z. 35F would have been great for me! Same. A 50/51F will be extremely helpful for me today assuming we get winds somewhere above 13kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 That was a huge obs. I feel like that needed to be at least 50F for the 51F or greater crowd. Now I'm thinking probably no higher than 50F for the high with the relatively strong CAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 That was a huge obs. I feel like that needed to be at least 50F for the 51F or greater crowd. Now I'm thinking probably no higher than 50F for the high with the relatively strong CAA aloft. Strong CAA at 850 doesn't halt warming under clear skies and good mixing. They are still going to be 5C at 925 and will mix to probably above 900 with strengthening winds and sunny conditions. Next ob will be the telling one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Freaking Strato Cu killing their chances of getting into the 50s now. Oh wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 49F. Hopefully they at least squeak out a 50F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Freaking Strato Cu killing their chances of getting into the 50s now. Oh wonderful.Yeah, I saw that moving into the region on the visible. I think they'll touch 50, but going any higher will be a challenge. The city that never cooperates continues to disappoint many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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