OHweather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I don't see how you can declare a city your drop city after Day 3. I guess if you did really well in Wlmington and Butte then you can but with the potential for a major precip. producer at the end of next week I wouldn't write it off just yet.I'm going to be a few points worse than consensus after day 3, and my "worst" standardized score so far is -5.70 in Wilmington, so for that reason I just can't see this as not my drop city out of the first three. That's not to say I'm going to stop forecasting, I'd still like to get above consensus for the city eventually, so if I do worse in another city I don't have multiple positive score cities to hurt my overall score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm going to be a few points worse than consensus after day 3, and my "worst" standardized score so far is -5.70 in Wilmington, so for that reason I just can't see this as not my drop city out of the first three. That's not to say I'm going to stop forecasting, I'd still like to get above consensus for the city eventually, so if I do worse in another city I don't have multiple positive score cities to hurt my overall score. Okay that's different. I don't know WxBlue's scores but assuming they weren't quite as good as yours I think it's still possible that this won't be his drop city. He's young I see from his sig. I don't want him to get discouraged this early in a city . This is my fifth year and I've seen things swing dramatically from week 1 to week 2 many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 You're right, it's too soon for me to say that but it'll be really tough for me to crack consensus if my low doesn't work out tonight :\ That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm going to be a few points worse than consensus after day 3, and my "worst" standardized score so far is -5.70 in Wilmington, so for that reason I just can't see this as not my drop city out of the first three. That's not to say I'm going to stop forecasting, I'd still like to get above consensus for the city eventually, so if I do worse in another city I don't have multiple positive score cities to hurt my overall score. Okay that's different. I don't know WxBlue's scores but assuming they weren't quite as good as yours I think it's still possible that this won't be his drop city. He's young I see from his sig. I don't want him to get discouraged this early in a city . This is my fifth year and I've seen things swing dramatically from week 1 to week 2 many times. Trust me, I'm not giving up I was being realistic more so than negative as I'm on same boat as OHweather regarding drop city. My scores (I'm noel15) were pretty good for KILM (-3.05) and KBTM (-1.56) so there's high potential for this being my drop city. Right now, I'm several points behind consensus (around 4.00) but I could easily get ahead of it if 30-32 degrees and 14-15 knots work out tonight, which I'm optimistic about after KCAR dropped to 37 last night. Right now, I'm just working my way up to consensus which is definitely possible or even likely for me after seeing some of my peers at UNCA working their way up in Butte. If I sounded negative in recent posts, I apologize about that. I'm usually a upbeat guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Really hoping there's at least a 13-15kt wind left in Caribou today. Assuming we drop to 32-34, a 14kt wind would put me at #1 for Category 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Really hoping there's at least a 13-15kt wind left in Caribou today. Assuming we drop to 32-34, a 14kt wind would put me at #1 for Category 4 Based on BUFKIT yesterday it looked like the strong winds around 950 mb would subside somewhat after 18z. I think they probably snuck a 13 kt wind in there somewhere between 15 and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Do winds decouple or 5-8 knots all night? Just for some reason I don't see them going calm and dropping off a cliff with the surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 These low clouds are really confusing me now. I have no clue what to go for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Gambling on low clouds and went 44/32/6/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 44/30/8/0 I have no clue on the low b/c of these low clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 43/31/8/0 I'm with Max. These clouds are making this low forecast incredibly difficult. I went a little higher than National with my low. After checking all the higher Res models and observing the satellite, I can see Caribou hanging onto these low clouds a little longer than previously anticipated. There is a short window of opportunity per the HRRR and 4km NAM at mostly clear skies around 6z-9z tonight and that's where the temperatures fell the hardest as the winds were basically non existent. The wind was a bit tough since the High will be situated right to there north, so they should remain calm for most of the day until that s/w approaches from the west and starts ramping up the gradient late in the forecast time for tomorrow. The mid-levels should see an increase in cloud cover by late morning and should keep the temperature from rising quickly for most of the period. I hope my gamble pays off since I'm sitting at 17th at the moment and if they get down to 34-35, I'll be top 3. This is a rough city to forecast for thanks in part to these clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 47/29/7/0 Not confident in any of it. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 46/33/6/0 Banking on clouds holding through the night. It they get a few hours of solar heating they could hit the upper 40's but it'll be a battle between tonight's clouds clearing and higher level clouds moving in later so I didn't go as warm as I think it could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 46/33/6/0 Banking on clouds holding through the night. It they get a few hours of solar heating they could hit the upper 40's but it'll be a battle between tonight's clouds clearing and higher level clouds moving in later so I didn't go as warm as I think it could get. Wait, whatta bout the convective clouds? I saw a Tc of like 6C on the NAM which is why I went 43F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 If this temp could drop fast before 6z I'd appreciate not missing the low by 4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wait, whatta bout the convective clouds? I saw a Tc of like 6C on the NAM which is why I went 43F. I think cu may develop, and I'm getting 6C on the NAM too, although today they shot like 4F past their convective temperature before the clouds thickened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Back from the field...the forecasts that I put in on Monday for the last 3 days didn't go so well...I'm ranked worse than 1000th and I have guidance tomorrow. LOL. Not a good city to try and make an extended forecast. Might also have to go back out next week so I probably cut my losses and not waste any time forecasting this crazy city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think cu may develop, and I'm getting 6C on the NAM too, although today they shot like 4F past their convective temperature before the clouds thickened Good point, I'm probably roasted. I can't believe I went 28F on the low too. Good job with the low man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good point, I'm probably roasted. I can't believe I went 28F on the low too. Good job with the low man.I'm feeling better about the warmer low (although a couple hours of clearing right before sunrise would ruin that) but for my warm high the low clouds currently in place would need to clear, so I'm not extremely confident in that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Went with 45/27/5/0 for today. Ummm......crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Went with 45/27/5/0 for today. Ummm......crap. 45/29/5/0. I'll fall some but hopefully max and winds can at least be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'm down around 1000 currently, after getting a trophy last city. It's over for me...Wilmington was already my drop, so I need a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'm down around 1000 currently, after getting a trophy last city. It's over for me...Wilmington was already my drop, so I need a miracle. Yeah, doing just awful in this city, myself. And I thought Butte was bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 My 32 should help me climb up 400 spots to 400th place, but my score is still going to be around 2.50. This is a tough city to beat consensus, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'm down around 1000 currently, after getting a trophy last city. It's over for me...Wilmington was already my drop, so I need a miracle.haha same here, last I checked I was around 1200th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 With a 42/34/6/0 verification (seems reasonable), I'm at 983rd place with a +7.43... and I've actually been trying in this city. This is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 With a 42/34/6/0 verification (seems reasonable), I'm at 983rd place with a +7.43... and I've actually been trying in this city. This is awful. They already hit 43F today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 They already hit 43F today Yeah I hadn't seen that obs yet (even though it was available at the time). Looked like they were stuck at 41F. Anyway, my score WRT national consensus doesn't change unless the high gets above 44F, which I don't think is particularly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yeah I hadn't seen that obs yet (even though it was available at the time). Looked like they were stuck at 41F. Anyway, my score WRT national consensus doesn't change unless the high gets above 44F, which I don't think is particularly likely. Gotcha. There was another 43F at 19z so its possible we get a 44-45F out of it. Hopefully winds stay at 5kts or less tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Gotcha. There was another 43F at 19z so its possible we get a 44-45F out of it. Hopefully winds stay at 5kts or less tonight 5kts would be even worse for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.