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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Wow .16 for precip right now in CAR, my .15 forecast really paid off. I was nervous I went too low but felt good about it until I saw everyone elses forecast for Caribou last night. This is my first time being in the top 50 in a city this year, but its only day two there isn't a lot of weight with just two days, hopefully I can keep it up.

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Temp already up to 46, but a scattered deck at 2,000 feet could start holding off the quick rise of temps. I can see the high around 48-49 today. Tonight will be a matter of how fast does it clear combined with winds decoupling. The earlier it clears, the harder the temp should crash. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out

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I did HYSPLIT yesterday and got something like 51 or 52...but, I talked myself out of it due to convective temps of 46, good moisture in the BL and mid-level CAA. I figured that clouds would develop once temps hit the mid 40's and figured that continuing mid level CAA would make it hard to get any warmer at that point. Dammit.

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I did HYSPLIT yesterday and got something like 51 or 52...but, I talked myself out of it due to convective temps of 46, good moisture in the BL and mid-level CAA. I figured that clouds would develop once temps hit the mid 40's and figured that continuing mid level CAA would make it hard to get any warmer at that point. Dammit.

Indeed. I had a similar thought process.

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I don't see how you can declare a city your drop city after Day 3. I guess if you did really well in Wlmington and Butte then you can but with the potential for a major precip. producer at the end of next week I wouldn't write it off just yet.

 

You're right, it's too soon for me to say that but it'll be really tough for me to crack consensus if my low doesn't work out tonight :\

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