H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 49/33/15/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 48/34/12/0.06 I'm taking a gamble on the precip here. I'm not that confident that it'll happen by the end of the forecast period, but it'll be close. Not too sure on the winds, and went with a combo of USL (even if it was 12 kts), Euro and 4km NAM winds and averaged them out. I'm either going to do real well or real bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 50/33/13/0 Hoping the warm advection overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 48/33/25/0 meant to type 15 and wasn't paying attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 assuming the climo is actually for the right city this time, it's not a bad forecast: 47/31/15/0.12 (except for the 0.12" I guess, although even that's not totally unreasonable) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 48/33/25/0 meant to type 15 and wasn't paying attention I was wondering what the hell that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I went with the National Consensus today apparently. 48/34/10/.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 51/31/15/0.02 Hoping that MOS is overdoing cloud cover late tonight into the first half of tomorrow. I debated going that high on the wind. All in all probably a risky forecast, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I considered going higher than 33F on the low. Dew points to the north and west of Caribou are generally in the mid to upper 30s, so unless they condense a lot of vapor out of the air, I'm not sure how they get their dew points down to 29-31 as suggested by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I considered going higher than 33F on the low. Dew points to the north and west of Caribou are generally in the mid to upper 30s, so unless they condense a lot of vapor out of the air, I'm not sure how they get their dew points down to 29-31 as suggested by the models. Same here. I thought about 34, but I didn't want to risk getting caught by sharp, sudden drop to low-30s (esp. with dewpoint at 32 at the time) so I was conservative with the low and see what this city got for Day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 49/31/12/0 Low isn't looking too hot right now with constant 43s for the past 5 hours. Radiate away please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I thought about going 0.04 but I wasnt ballsy enough so I just went zero. Good diffluence in the upper levels but WAA is only good from below 850mb. PWATs are good. Isethropic lift is above where the parcel rises to and that is why I decided to go zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 No clue why I went so cold for tonight. I'd have to imagine that over the now 13 cities I've forecasted for that days 1 and 8 are overall my worst two days respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z gfs now gives .1 precip while the mesos still negligible. I kind of figured I should of went 0.04 to 0.1 but we will see if the gfs is out to lunch or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 50/31/14/0.02 Not looking good for the low. I'm going out to the field this week so I had to forecast a few days in advance...not sure if I'll be able to update them or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Damn it! Don't you hate it when a thought pops in your head with a forecast (like going near 40 for the low) and then you talk yourself out of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Damn it! Don't you hate it when a thought pops in your head with a forecast (like going near 40 for the low) and then you talk yourself out of it? Yep. To be fair, though, I thought it was gonna be clear for much of the night. Had I been smart enough to realize there were going to be low clouds all night, I definitely would have gone higher. You live and learn, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I didnt think low clouds would stick that long last night honestly. Is the area swampy or something? And with clouds hanging through the day I still don't see them hitting 50F. I am worried about precip of .1+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yea very surprised with the cloud cover last night... it looks like a decent fetch off the St. Laurence river actually kept clouds stuck in the boundary layer... but it looks like things might be clearing now so we could have a few hours of heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Clear skies and 44F last update. We'll see what happens with how fast temperatures jump up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm having a terrible day 1. A 15 knot wind and any rain would mitigate that a little bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's calm and fair, but temperature doesn't jump? At least I didn't started off this badly in Butte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Wow. If the high is 48F today (and the wind is 13kts+ and with 0 precip), I'm at +2.48 after day 1 for the city. If the high is 50F today (and the wind is 13kts+ and with 0 precip), I'm at -12.18. How can a 2F difference on the high make such a ridiculously huge difference with the scores? That's insane. Of course, right now it seems like the 50F is unlikely. Hopefully next hour jumps to 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I really need two more degrees to 49F. Please, Caribou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm having a terrible day 1. A 15 knot wind and any rain would mitigate that a little bit though. Climo has 48/40/14/0.00 for now. Hopefully we can squeeze a 0.01" out tonight. My 48/34/14/0.01 won't be perfect but at least I'll get ahead of consensus for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Climo has 48/40/14/0.00 for now. Hopefully we can squeeze a 0.01" out tonight. My 48/34/14/0.01 won't be perfect but at least I'll get ahead of consensus for today. That 48F has me already worse that consensus. Any precip will screw me even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That 48F has me already worse that consensus. Any precip will screw me even worse. Radar doesn't look that impressive and I think we can get into the mid 30s tonight before clouds roll in for the rest of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Radar doesn't look that impressive and I think we can get into the mid 30s tonight before clouds roll in for the rest of the night. I'd need it to get below consensus (34F) for it to help me, scorewise. And that's certainly not going to happen. Maybe a 39F or 38F, bu the clouds are already moving in and we're still at 42F. And the advection isn't going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Tomorrow's forecast looks interestingly spread out on a few things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 61495452. My forecast holds all these numbers tomorrow. Guess what is what lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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