Max Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Looks like I'll finish possibly in the top 50 and a city score better than -3.5 even after a horrible and I mean horrible last 3 days. On a good note my professor from my alma mater Lyndon State looks to win the overall title at Butte and for Cat 1, so I don't know if they give him two trophies or one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Looks like I'll finish possibly in the top 50 and a city score better than -3.5 even after a horrible and I mean horrible last 3 days. On a good note my professor from my alma mater Lyndon State looks to win the overall title at Butte and for Cat 1, so I don't know if they give him two trophies or one. It's just the one. I've had an awful last four days (well mostly days 5-7), but I'm only going to finish right near national consensus. Better than the alternative, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Butte looks like it will be locked in clouds for the whole afternoon. The high might not get out of the 40s. I shouldn't have gone so warm today, but I didn't expect the rain to be reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Barring something unforeseen with the high/wind over the next couple of hours, it looks like if the low gets to 37 or lower I'll be the 1st or 2nd cat 3 forecaster. It still looks like there will be a few hours of clear skies and light winds before 6z, so I don't think that's unreasonable...although the clouds can't lift north much slower than expected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Barring something unforeseen with the high/wind over the next couple of hours, it looks like if the low gets to 37 or lower I'll be the 1st or 2nd cat 3 forecaster. It still looks like there will be a few hours of clear skies and light winds before 6z, so I don't think that's unreasonable...although the clouds can't lift north much slower than expected at this point. I need the opposite scenario but I'm not sure whether to cheer for the clearing or not. The dew points are relatively high so I think the temperature will have trouble getting below 40 until after 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I need the opposite scenario but I'm not sure whether to cheer for the clearing or not. The dew points are relatively high so I think the temperature will have trouble getting below 40 until after 06Z. It would be preferable (for me, probably not for you) for the dew points to be a bit lower, although they're at 37 right now so I don't think getting below 40 is impossible. But for my colder low to work out they definitely have to clear regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 It would be preferable (for me, probably not for you) for the dew points to be a bit lower, although they're at 37 right now so I don't think getting below 40 is impossible. But for my colder low to work out they definitely have to clear regardless. I'm ok with 39, but I lose the trophy if it gets to 38. I was originally expecting the temperatures to jump quickly around 00 UTC with clearing, but that no longer appears possible. Not a good day for me to make such a bad forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I was way too aggressive with last two forecast days and my score went down from -4.20 to about -1.00. This one hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm ok with 39, but I lose the trophy if it gets to 38. I was originally expecting the temperatures to jump quickly around 00 UTC with clearing, but that no longer appears possible. Not a good day for me to make such a bad forecast... I had iffy or bad day 8 forecasts last year in GRR and BWI and this year in ILM when a good forecast would've handed me a trophy. It's a frustrating feeling.The 4z METAR came in at 37/36, which gets me a top 5 finish in the city and a cat 3 trophy (I was starting to think I'd never get one, and to get it in Butte of all places!). I can finish as high as 2nd for the city if they get to 35. It feels gratifying to finally pull it out, and this city was a b*tch, and it's too bad you couldn't hang on. At least Caribou is more conventional than Butte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Goodbye trophy :axe: Congrats to OHweather though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Goodbye trophy :axe: Congrats to OHweather though! Thanks! I was sweating it when the dews got up to 42F for an hour, not gonna lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 looks like high clouds have arrived .. hoping for another 2 degree drop although unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It would be preferable (for me, probably not for you) for the dew points to be a bit lower, although they're at 37 right now so I don't think getting below 40 is impossible. But for my colder low to work out they definitely have to clear regardless. Are you OHUJMS? Looks like I surpassed you for 1st in cat 3...although you could repass me depending on 5z and 6z. Regardless, I'll come in the top 10 overall and my best performance by far! I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 looks like high clouds have arrived .. hoping for another 2 degree drop although unlikely Quite a tight clustering from 4th- 35th or so...so if the low got down to 34...you would rocket up to 3rd place and OHUJMS would take 2nd with Lyndon's professor retaining first (I would drop to 9th)... Next few observations should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Are you OHUJMS? Looks like I surpassed you for 1st in cat 3...although you could repass me depending on 5z and 6z. Regardless, I'll come in the top 10 overall and my best performance by far! I'm happy.That is me. 36 I think I pass you? Either way I'm also happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 That is me. 36 I think I pass you? Either way I'm also happy! yup. I'm waiting patiently for the 5z ob... Good luck! ..I think you will probably get 36. Even if the ob is 37 it likely will hit 36 sometime between now and 6z, if not 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Quite a tight clustering from 4th- 35th or so...so if the low got down to 34...you would rocket up to 3rd place and OHUJMS would take 2nd with Lyndon's professor retaining first (I would drop to 9th)... Next few observations should be interesting. yup, need a 35 to win cat 2. that is assuming 47/35/10/.03 in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 35-36 will erase my huge mistake and allows me to escape the city with around -1.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 35-36 will erase my huge mistake and allows me to escape the city with around -1.50. Likewise, a 36 or lower would put me at -1.31, which after the last four days, I probably don't even deserve. EDIT: And indeed we got 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 36 at 5z. OSU...you officially got 1st for cat 3. Congrats. I'll take 2nd...no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm finishing in the top 40. Horray! Edit: Top 20 now. Wow. 4th in Cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Final for day 8 will be 47/34/10/0.03" I'll finish second overall and tops in cat 3. Congrats to the others here who are also getting trophies! A freshman at Ohio University will also get a trophy. We don't net two trophies in one city very often, so good stuff in Butte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The low tanked and so did my score lol. Well -2.49 at this place is ok I guess lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Ended up finishing 98th for the city. Best city for me in a while. Made up 1200 spots between day 1 and day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Anybody got wind roses for Caribou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Anybody got wind roses for Caribou? From Brian Tang's wxchallenge page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Wind roses for OCT and NOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 back to trying again (Butte will be my drop city) 48/34/13/0 Precip was a bit of a tough call, but the NMM/ARW/USL were all dry, so I stayed at 0 as well. 13 kts might also be too bullish, especially if the climo report is 12 a.m. local time, but I chanced it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Very conservative forecast considering it's day one and I forgot about WxChallenge until 15 minutes before deadline, but... 49/33/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 48/33/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.