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WxChallenge 2014-2015

Jurg

By Jurg,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

Climate report has the low at 42...so I guess that 39 occurred between 11:53 PM and midnight yesterday?

 

Guess so. Fortunately the only variable that counts from the daily climo report for wxchallenge is the wind. Temperatures come from the METARs.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, I think it's because the daily climo is valid from midnight to midnight local STANDARD time, which would be 1AM-1AM local daylight time (07z-07z).

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wi_fl_wx

wi_fl_wx

Posted
Posted

Guess so. Fortunately the only variable that counts from the daily climo report for wxchallenge is the wind. Temperatures come from the METARs.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, I think it's because the daily climo is valid from midnight to midnight local STANDARD time, which would be 1AM-1AM local daylight time (07z-07z).

 

Ok that makes sense. I forgot that temperatures come from the METARs.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

My day 8 forecasts when I've had a trophy on the line have tended to be poor, but I went:

51/35/10/0.01"

For the low, I don't think they'll get cooler than 38 tonight and may even stay warmer. However, most models seemed to agree on a few hours or clear skies tomorrow evening with light winds and dews in the low 30's. If that clearing occurs then I think mid 30's is doable, but there isn't much margin for error on the clearing. For the high, the clouds look lower than today so I don't think they'll get much solar heating. They don't look to mix high at all and the winds should be too weak to downslope, so with most raw model data keeping things in the 40's I figured MOS was too warm. Tried HYSPLIT with the 18z NAM and if I did it right got a temp of 50-51 at 21z so went with that number. They don't look to mix down stronger winds tomorrow so only went 10 knots, we'll see. Most models show a few hours of decent lift over a slanted frontal boundary during the afternoon, and show the atmosphere saturated only about 500m above ground level for a time, so with little to no downsloping I think that may be enough to get some light rain...my 0.01" is really just a play for 0.4 points though if I'm right. We shall see!

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

0.04" of rain...LOL

Good, maybe they can do it again tomorrow :P

 

I was looking at the 12z Euro and it spit out like 0.05" of rain from 0-3z (3-6z) this evening, and of course it's right on (off by 3 hours).

 

EDIT: Here's the text output:

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BTM    LAT=  45.95 LON= -112.50 ELE=  5551                                            12Z OCT23                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700     3/6     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK THU 12Z 23-OCT   2.7     8.3    1013      64      86    0.00     567     556    THU 15Z 23-OCT   3.6     7.7    1014      66      70    0.00     567     555    THU 18Z 23-OCT   9.7    10.9    1013      55      69    0.00     567     557    THU 21Z 23-OCT  12.7    14.4    1010      41      70    0.00     567     559    FRI 00Z 24-OCT  10.0    13.8    1010      55      81    0.00     567     559    FRI 03Z 24-OCT   7.0    11.6    1012      74      91    0.02     567     557    FRI 06Z 24-OCT   5.7    10.1    1013      88      83    0.05     567     556    FRI 09Z 24-OCT   4.5     9.6    1014      87      85    0.01     568     556    FRI 12Z 24-OCT   4.6     8.3    1016      90      95    0.02     568     554    FRI 15Z 24-OCT   4.5     7.3    1018      91      96    0.01     568     553    FRI 18Z 24-OCT   5.4     7.3    1019      84      96    0.02     569     554    FRI 21Z 24-OCT   5.4     7.7    1018      90      96    0.03     570     555    SAT 00Z 25-OCT   5.2     7.9    1017      98      82    0.05     571     556    SAT 03Z 25-OCT   2.9     8.2    1017      98      67    0.00     572     558    SAT 06Z 25-OCT   2.2    10.1    1016      97      40    0.00     573     559
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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

I'm not so sure...that warm front shows up around 03Z tomorrow so I think the low will be tonight.

Especially since the clouds have decided to disappear!'

You could well be right. The WAA looks pretty weak tomorrow evening so I do think they can get cooler than tonight if they are in fact clear enough, but the front does look a bit faster on the 0z NAM than it did on the 12-18z runs, which may make it harder to drop.

 

Just saw your edit. We'll see how long that hole in the clouds lasts haha (and dews are in the upper 30's still). I need 35 at some point and I know it'll be a stretch tonight and tomorrow evening it's iffy too.

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wi_fl_wx

wi_fl_wx

Posted
Posted

The temperature could easily jump up to the mid-50s if that warm front arrives early enough. Or, the clearing could happen after sunset and be enough to plunge the temperature into the mid-30s.

 

If the high sticks in the 40s all day, I somehow still get a trophy--2nd place Cat 2--with another UW grad student passing me for #1. If the high gets into the mid-50s and the low stays at 39 or above, I could still get 1st place overall. If the high stays cold and the low drops into the mid 30s tonight... :axe: :axe: :axe:

 

The satellite looks beautiful with that ridge building nicely. However, the rain keeps back-building and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. I think the colder scenario is likely right now, but I'm not giving up yet.

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