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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Let's hope it doesn't rise at all...if it doesn't rise above 54F, and the wind is 15kts-19kts, I'll take first. Hoping...

 

Sorry, I'm on upper-50s bandwagon...

 

Although I may have underestimated that flow of moisture/clouds coming in from Pacific so you're in a good shape for now :)

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Once the wind kicks up, downsloping will kick in and the clouds will probably clear to some degree. The high temperature is directly coupled to the winds right now. It only stays in the low 50's if the winds stay down.

Phil we both got screwed going cold on the low last night...you think there's any hope of a miracle 06z low tonight? :lol:

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Anything above my forecast of 58/37/22 will slingshot me all the way up to Top 5 in Category from 200th place and around a point behind from winning a trophy. Let's hope Butte's downsloping do the magic...

If Butte downslopes I probably will get my 24 knots of wind. 

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Probably not... winds will need to rapidly drop off and they probably won't be quick enough. Then again if the winds never come up who knows...

Winds are running 40-45 knots at 700mb. You would think they would come up if they mix past that level right?

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58F now so around 60 looks good for a high. Winds still underwhelming though.

 

I think just about all of us need the wind to pick up in some shape or form. I will be shocked if we don't get at least a short period of high winds. It was around this time the winds were supposed to start ramping up for the area, so I guess we'll see how it plays out. 

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I think just about all of us need the wind to pick up in some shape or form. I will be shocked if we don't get at least a short period of high winds. It was around this time the winds were supposed to start ramping up for the area, so I guess we'll see how it plays out.

I definitely think we'll see them pick up over the next couple hours as we start mixing better due to warmer temps. Question is do they peak at like 13 knots of 20+, and I really don't know haha
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I am surprised the winds have not picked up yet .. I mean it is up to 58 so they must be mixing close to 700 mb now? 

Last hour KDLN was at 59F with a 9 knot southerly wind. This hour they're at 60 with SW winds at 13 knots gusting to 21. I think Butte is close to mixing down those stronger winds, they might just need to warm another degree or two.

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I'm 3 for 3 this week on bad forecasts.

 

Today I was expecting enough clearing in the morning for the temperature to be in the mid-upper 30s by 8-9 AM, so it would have been more difficult for them to mix out of that inversion and get to the upper 50s. Oh well.

I've stayed relatively afloat. Just need tomorrow to be under 4 error and I'll probably get a -3 or better city score. 

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Per climo, the numbers for today as of 22z are:

 

59/39/15/0

 

Slight chance they get another knot out of the wind, but I wouldn't count on it. That will put me 3rd in cat 3 and 1.4 points away from a trophy. Not impossible, but I need a nice tidy day 8 for it to happen. Lows tomorrow look like the trickiest variable.

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