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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Another tricky low forecast... this time to figure out if the boundary layer will decouple. Normally its a guaranteed yes unless there is strong WAA. There is WAA forecast tonight, but I'm not sure if its strong enough to keep the boundary layer from at least trying to decouple. With the winds already dropping down to 3 knots before 00z, I feel confident we can go calm in at least brief intervals. Obviously the NAM MOS at 27 is too cold, but it wouldn't be surprising to see conditions go calm briefly and get some rapid temperature swings from hour to hour. I think anywhere in the 30-35 range is fair game. The dewpoint at 29F right now is only forecast to slowly recover.

 

Tomorrow should be a more definitive downsloping day. Even though there will be more cloud cover, 700-hPa temps should be starting a good 5C warmer than yesterday at this time. Combine that with deeper mixing, I think we can crack 60. 

 

61/34/19/0

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Already down to 38...

Several stations upstream bounced up a couple to few degrees as the clouds thickened up...we'll see if Butte does or not. A slightly stronger wind would help. My 39 is probably roasted but I really don't think they cool much more tonight (maybe a couple more degrees).

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Several stations upstream bounced up a couple to few degrees as the clouds thickened up...we'll see if Butte does or not. A slightly stronger wind would help. My 39 is probably roasted but I really don't think they cool much more tonight (maybe a couple more degrees).

 

I'm not sure my 37 will do well either, since dewpoint is still at 30. If the sky cleared for a hour, it'll drop few degrees to 34-35. As long as it stay above 34, I think I'll be okay score-wise...

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I'm not sure my 37 will do well either, since dewpoint is still at 30. If the sky cleared for a hour, it'll drop few degrees to 34-35. As long as it stay above 34, I think I'll be okay score-wise...

I think they'll end up bouncing around a bit the rest of the night. I can see them briefly getting down to 35 or 36 but they should be pretty cloudy the rest of the night.

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