Mallow Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Right now I'd say 60-61 is most likely, with 59 and 62 not completely out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Right now I'd say 60-61 is most likely, with 59 and 62 not completely out of the question. If it's 59F at 21z I would say 61F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 If it's 59F at 21z I would say 61F. Agreed. Something like 21z temp + 1-3°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Agreed. Something like 21z temp + 1-3°F. You win day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Ha 61 already. 62 or 63 maybe? Never underestimate the warming here I guess lol. I'll be in 3rd for this week it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 61 doesn't hurt me, score-wise, as I'm on consensus for high but it did benefited many Cat 4 forecasters toward top of leader board. It's tougher to win when there are more people in the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I had 62 for the high so today is turning into a huge success. Mallow has a decent shot at a perfect forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 62/21/9/0 so far day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Looks like the day 4 numbers will be 62/21/9/0. If that in fact holds which it should I'll move up to 23rd for Butte. No complaints about that after how I started the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Can't wait for Caribou... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I had 62 for the high so today is turning into a huge success. Mallow has a decent shot at a perfect forecast. This is my third year doing the WxChallenge... if things verify, this will be my first perfect forecast. I would never have expected it in a city like Butte on a day like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 This is my third year doing the WxChallenge... if things verify, this will be my first perfect forecast. I would never have expected it in a city like Butte on a day like this. Congrats! (assuming the wind doesn't do anything crazy) My only perfect forecast was in Juneau of all places, so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Looks very likely that our first precip day will come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Looks very likely that our first precip day will come tomorrow. Agreed. Interesting to see that the models are lowing precip amounts though. Go super bold and put 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Agreed. Interesting to see that the models are lowing precip amounts though. Go super bold and put 0. Euro upped the totals lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Anybody got any good pwat archive sites? I want to look at Oct 19th, 2009 at Butte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp/pdisp2.cgi?ctlfile=narr-a_221_20091019_0000_000.ctl&order_num=5796&ptype=map&povlp=noovlp&var=PWATclm&level=1000&op1=none&op2=none&cint=def&cthick1=4&title=&cScheme=cSchemeRainbow&type=default&conType1=solid&conColor1=Default&hour=18Z&day=19&month=oct&year=2009&proj=nwusa&lon0=-180&dlon=360&lat0=-90&dlat=180&waterBoundColor=Default&waterBoundType=solid&waterBoundThickness=6&countryBoundColor=Default&countryBoundType=solid&countryBoundThickness=6&stateBoundColor=Default&stateBoundType=solid&stateBoundThickness=3&plotsize=800x600 Looks to me like 14-18kg/m^2 for that day. Was a slower mover. Tomorrow will be a bit more progressive, so I don't know how it will compare. I think PWATs are pretty similar. Vortmax looks a lot stronger tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Not the best day to be forecasting early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I think the only thing I'm going to be confident about tomorrow will be the low. Lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I really have no confidence for anything tomorrow. Maybe the wind and that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Either I'll do very well or very poorly tomorrow. This is fun though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 This is a comparison I did for the 22Z run of the USL model versus the actual obs in butte for the day. This is for the past 4 days, the only official day was Friday and is posted on the wxchallenge website. The numbers represent a departure from the actual obs. For example on Friday High -4, the forecasted high of the 22Z run was 4 degrees below the actual ob. High Low Wind Fri -4 +2 0 Sat -1 0 -1 Sun -3 +3 0 Mon -3 -2 -5 (so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 53/32/19/0.31 Very low confidence in everything...decided to gamble on the high end with the wind and went a little on the warm side with the high temperature. Was afraid to take any risks on the low or precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 59/31/22/0.22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 56/32/19/0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 59/31/22/0.22 your forecast is making me feel a lot better about mine right now 59 / 29 / 25 / 0.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 51/32/14/0.24 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 50/32/16/.30 The NAM is going for a high of 48 tomorrow as well as the ECMWF. GFS is at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 50/32/16/.30 The NAM is going for a high of 48 tomorrow as well as the ECMWF. GFS is at 54. 58F* on the 18z GFS. I also did a HYSPLIT run and calculations that gave me a high of 59F around 18z tomorrow. And funny enough I used the super cold NAM as my model in the HYSPLIT run. The only way this doesn't work out is if the speed of the system is not modeled correctly more importantly modeled too slow so the onset of precipitation would be quicker and therefore my high won't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Agree that the key is when the precip / front comes through tomorrow, which is complicated by the complex terrain. If precip starts between 12-15 UTC, the 46-52F camp will likely verify with the precip. keeping in the nocturnal inversion before frontal passage. If precip holds off till after 18 UTC there will be a few hours to warm up with some downsloping, and with 700 hPa temps in the 12-15C range, its not unfathomable to expect temps in the 55-60F range if there is any mixing at all. Low is likely to be in the 30-34F range with some snowfall. Whether or not it gets cooler will depend if the winds die down, not super likely with strong CAA behind the front before 06 UTC. Rain is a total crap shoot... if they can get under a convective cell it could drop a quick .2", but I'm not willing to bet on convection in the valley. 55/33/20/0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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