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October Discussion


TalcottWx

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That's probably over a foot for PF. GFS/ecens hint at it too. We only need to lock it in for another 5-6 days.

lol yeah from having no storm at all on the 12z run yesterday too.

BTV removed any mention of rain after like Saturday morning...

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

Sunday...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s.

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lol yeah from having no storm at all on the 12z run yesterday too.

BTV removed any mention of rain after like Saturday morning...

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

Sunday...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s.

 

 

You have sneakily developed a bit of a point and click fetish the past year or so.

 

Do you share water supply with moneypitmike?

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I refuse to go into verbatim details at 6 days out on the Euro...even though it would be some accumulating snow for even Monads, Berks, ORH hills. It takes an anomaously deeping upper level trough that can change easily between now and then.

 

At the very least, the pretty impressive (albeit brief) cold shot looks to get in here on the weekend.

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I think I'm handling the torch for NOV pretty well. I'm not looking forward to it..I don't think anyone really is. I just hope there's some signs or signals on the Ens that we have a chance of breaking the pattern later in the month

You stated 15+ above normal in your temperature estimation. That's not supported by anything.

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You stated 15+ above normal in your temperature estimation. That's not supported by anything.

Aren't models and ens muted by climo somewhat the farther out in time you get? So if you factor that in..given the indices are all super positive..that would seem like we have the possibility of some well above normal warmth

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Aren't models and ens muted by climo somewhat the farther out in time you get? So if you factor that in..given the indices are all super positive..that would seem like we have the possibility of some well above normal warmth

 

 

MOS is muted by climo in the long range.

 

Ensembles are muted by uncertainty, not climo.

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Aren't models and ens muted by climo somewhat the farther out in time you get? So if you factor that in..given the indices are all super positive..that would seem like we have the possibility of some well above normal warmth

 

To really get a torch pattern this time of year, you need a deep trough over the west coast with SW winds ahead of it along with lake cutters. This is more like lots of high pressure around and a fairly benign zonal flow. It's not a torch pattern...just mild and boring along with intermittent warm and cool shots. At least IMHO.

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To really get a torch pattern this time of year, you need a deep trough over the west coast with SW winds ahead of it along with lake cutters. This is more like lots of high pressure around and a fairly benign zonal flow. It's not a torch pattern...just mild and boring along with intermittent warm and cool shots. At least IMHO.

Exactly! This Looks more zonal.

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You have sneakily developed a bit of a point and click fetish the past year or so.

Do you share water supply with moneypitmike?

:lol:

It's actually a zone forecast fetish...I dislike the point and click. Always go straight to the old school zones like back in the day. Love the wording and old school feel of the zone forecasts...you know the "heavy accumulations possible" stuff, not the odd ranges of "new snow accumulation of 3-11 inches possible" stuff.

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:lol:

It's actually a zone forecast fetish...I dislike the point and click. Always go straight to the old school zones like back in the day. Love the wording and old school feel of the zone forecasts...you know the "heavy accumulations possible" stuff, not the odd ranges of "new snow accumulation of 3-11 inches possible" stuff.

 

I'm ZFP all the way here--I'll cite p/c, but usually with a comment that it will likely be wrong (typically regarding temperature).

 

51.3/39

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I'm ZFP all the way here--I'll cite p/c, but usually with a comment that it will likely be wrong (typically regarding temperature).

 

51.3/39

 

Be a matrix man!

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=AFM

 

I literally do not know how to navigate to this anymore given their website changes, but I have it bookmarked because I find it excellent.

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Be a matrix man!

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=AFM

 

I literally do not know how to navigate to this anymore given their website changes, but I have it bookmarked because I find it excellent.

I am so lost on the BOX site now. Thankfully I had bookmarked a lot of what I use

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I am so lost on the BOX site now. Thankfully I had bookmarked a lot of what I use

 

Me too.  It takes so much time to hunt for information if you don't have it bookmarked.  That's half the reason I started my links page was because I got tired of hunting around for links and just wanted a single page with quick links to stuff.  The way they have it now you go through the menus and hope that a particular link will take you to a page that has what you want. 

 

There's that and the fact that they will put stuff on commercial sites for publicity and not put it on their homepage which should be the source of truth.  Don't get me started on that...lol.

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I'm ZFP all the way here--I'll cite p/c, but usually with a comment that it will likely be wrong (typically regarding temperature).

 

51.3/39

 

lol...I do the same thing but with the 1AM update on clear nights where it will say "near steady temperatures".  Meanwhile, temperatures continue to drop another 5-10 degrees.

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