Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 I was just going by the thermal profile there...the liquid matches the thermal profile the model is spitting out. Maybe it would be different in real life but at that point you can just go by the soundings. Do you see how thick the warm layer is on the thermal time series? The second chart in my post...is that sounding different on other products like twister data? Yeah I can't atone for that honestly ... Although, those intervals are based on modeled perception of things ... so, intrinsically we question the veracity of those warm (or cool) layers -- at least I do -- given to the violence aloft. It could be correct in early times frames, but perhaps just too slow to modulate the lower levels during the trough amplitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 The Saturday fantasy GFS solution is already getting too much attention on twitter. My tweet was more in humor for fellow Met's too laugh with. Also I always like to say how this is "technical discussion, not a forecast". Too many people take the 186hr output and take it to heart. Way to many things to change between then and now. I use to brush anything over 120hrs right out of the convo. Just like the 386. I now look at 120-200ish just to talk technical with fellow met's. It is for sure interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Nice hit nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Wild card ... How these features combine and deepen (or not) and can usurp the flow in the more intermediate stream geometry down stream will be something to watch in future runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Nice hit nne.Eh...12Z GFS brings the sfc and mid-level lows over BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Eh...12Z GFS brings the sfc and mid-level lows over BTV. It ain't bad this far out. Jay peak cashes in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 My tweet was more in humor for fellow Met's too laugh with. Also I always like to say how this is "technical discussion, not a forecast". Too many people take the 186hr output and take it to heart. Way to many things to change between then and now. I use to brush anything over 120hrs right out of the convo. Just like the 386. I now look at 120-200ish just to talk technical with fellow met's. It is for sure interesting I didn't mean your tweet....there was some other BS on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Snowing on the summits right now (re NNE thread), nice step down continues with those picnic table dustings becoming more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Eh...12Z GFS brings the sfc and mid-level lows over BTV. It's weaker all around ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 I like the fact we are getting coastals though. Last week now this one. Keep it rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 I didn't mean your tweet....there was some other BS on there. Oh no I wasn't meaning that. HAHA I was explaining how I tweet about long range storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 This would be a wrist-slitter track in January on the GFS. A cold rain for SNE--maybe a couple of flakes at the tail-end for high elevations (Pete). Looks a bit gusty through Saturday night. I'll be sitting in the cold at Lane Stadium cheering on VT for a win over BC while you folks might be having a bit of a breezy rain storm. Winds die down by the time I land at 2:00pm. at BDL. Of course, the storm may not materialize at all. Nice fall day now though. Cloudy and breezy. 47.9/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Let's continue that damaging wind threat in SNE. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 I like the fact we are getting coastals though. Last week now this one. Keep it rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 I like the fact we are getting coastals though. Last week now this one. Keep it rolling. This one looks more like a hybrid coastal on the recent models. But yeah the point is we are getting storms and good trough amplifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 GGEM gets real cold next weekend with -10C at H85 over NNE. No storm though just a dry trough. Then it goes warm like many on here have been speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Today definitely has that classic cold season WNW flow lake effect streamer/upslope appeal to it with occasional rain showers and gusty winds. If this were winter, we'd probably be getting snow showers instead with an inch or two of accumulation. 49° F, but much cooler in the higher elevations. I am the process of securing a plot of land up at 2,230' of elevation on the east slope of the southern Green Mountains about 35 miles north of my current location, so it should be a big upgrade in the snow department from where I am now. I'm guessing they probably average between 110" and 120" per year there according to some of the nearby COOP data. I'm hoping to build on it either next year or in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Today definitely has that classic cold season WNW flow lake effect streamer/upslope appeal to it with occasional rain showers and gusty winds. If this were winter, we'd probably be getting snow showers instead with an inch or two of accumulation. 49° F, but much cooler in the higher elevations. I am the process of securing a plot of land up at 2,230' of elevation on the east slope of the southern Green Mountains about 35 miles north of my current location, so it should be a big upgrade in the snow department from where I am now. I'm guessing they probably average between 110" and 120" per year there according to some of the nearby COOP data. I'm hoping to build on it either next year or in 2016. That's awesome, Mitch! Which town in SVT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 That's awesome, Mitch! Which town in SVT? Stamford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Today definitely has that classic cold season WNW flow lake effect streamer/upslope appeal to it with occasional rain showers and gusty winds. If this were winter, we'd probably be getting snow showers instead with an inch or two of accumulation. 49° F, but much cooler in the higher elevations. I am the process of securing a plot of land up at 2,230' of elevation on the east slope of the southern Green Mountains about 35 miles north of my current location, so it should be a big upgrade in the snow department from where I am now. I'm guessing they probably average between 110" and 120" per year there according to some of the nearby COOP data. I'm hoping to build on it either next year or in 2016. Yeah 2200ft on the east slope of the southern Greens should work, lol. A weenies paradise, high elevation, east of the crest for CAD, but still able to get NW upslope before it dries out, and easterly upslope jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Woah nice gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Stamford.Sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 First official freeze for many coastal sne locales next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 First official freeze for many coastal sne locales next weekend?that ship sailed, only uhi spots left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 that ship sailed, only uhi spots left Not along the ocean and nearby coastal plain. I haven't frozen yet and I'm 5 miles inland. BOS-no but yes on uhi, BVY? I think not, PYM? Don't think so yet. Exclude OWD because they along with MVY are among the best radiators around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Yeah 2200ft on the east slope of the southern Greens should work, lol. A weenies paradise, high elevation, east of the crest for CAD, but still able to get NW upslope before it dries out, and easterly upslope jackpot. That's why I chose it. It should capitalize in both situations. Granted I won't get as much of the NW flow stuff as you do, but I should still get some. However, that location should do best with a nice, juicy coastal that has a ripping easterly LLJ that upslopes as it hits the east side of the spine. In sum, it's far enough south to get in on some of the coastals, but far enough north to still do fairly well in a SWFE pattern like '07-'08, and has enough topography to still get quite a bit of orographic enhancement. It's only 15-20 minutes from North Adams and 45-50 minutes from Pittsfield, so I can get to places fairly easily. I can't wait to spend my first winter up there. I'll definitely take some weenie trips up there this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Still technically no frost/freeze at my house . Lawn has really greened up with the past rain. Anyone have access to the Euro for next weekend's chances for first frozen QPF for us up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Not along the ocean and nearby coastal plain. I haven't frozen yet and I'm 5 miles inland. BOS-no but yes on uhi, BVY? I think not, PYM? Don't think so yet. Exclude OWD because they along with MVY are among the best radiators around. There are still a decent amount of spots that haven't had a frost/freeze...not a ton but even NNE spots like Lake Winni, Gene's hill, that poster Lava Rock in Maine, PWM, BTV...so likewise I'm sure there are spots in SNE, especially some hilltop or coastal sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Not along the ocean and nearby coastal plain. I haven't frozen yet and I'm 5 miles inland. BOS-no but yes on uhi, BVY? I think not, PYM? Don't think so yet. Exclude OWD because they along with MVY are among the best radiators around.I think my lowest is 33.5 so far too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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