October Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

First half of Novie could be quite dull.

If the bomb or winds don't happen next weekend  which has a 50/50 shot

[CoastalWx]

If the bomb or winds don't happen next weekend which has a 50/50 shot

Less than 50/50 for that "bomb."

[wxjim207]

Will have to watch the trends for the streams. Last what 3 of 4 runs have had this cold system. Of course a lot of things to happen between now and 180ish hours out. 

 

Image thanks to WSI

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats SLK....looking at soundings they'd have the best chance with that deterministic solution. Pretty warm elsewhere until good NW flow develops.

image.jpg

really because it sure looks like your column is well below freezing but it doesn't matter.

[Ginx snewx]

IF the GFS system came true with a 526 5h -11 850 bomb you in NNE wouldn't have to worry about soundings.

[Ginx snewx]

Will have to watch the trends for the streams. Last what 3 of 4 runs have had this cold system. Of course a lot of things to happen between now and 180ish hours out.

Image thanks to WSI

PF says that's rain for him

[Ginx snewx]

Novie is sounding like a fun month as always lol. What is it about that month that's so hard to get exciting storms?

what? Some of the deepest storms in our history come in Nov, doesn't necessarily mean snow but November ain't your Daddy's September

[moneypitmike]

Will have to watch the trends for the streams. Last what 3 of 4 runs have had this cold system. Of course a lot of things to happen between now and 180ish hours out. 

 

Image thanks to WSI

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyaLZHiJJnE

[moneypitmike]

what? Some of the deepest storms in our history come in Nov, doesn't necessarily mean snow but November ain't your Daddy's September

 

This.

[CoastalWx]

The Saturday fantasy GFS solution is already getting too much attention on twitter.

[Ginx snewx]

The Saturday fantasy GFS solution is already getting too much attention on twitter.

for PFs rain only in SLK? Lol no other support but that's not a rain storm in NNE ever

[Mikehobbyst]

One thing is for sure, the sun light at noon is really taking on that "we shoveled snow in these same exact shadows last February" is really true right now.  The sun angle change from 9/1 through 10/30 is what I call the "cliff fall" from reasonably late summer lighting, to entry level snow shoveling / winter lighting.

[eekuasepinniW]

what wonderful timing 

[dendrite]

That may be snow for PF and the higher els in far NNE, but with that track, this time of year, there would be no congrats for me.

[CT Rain]

Definitely a fun fropa this morning with those downpours. Nice wind gust, quick pressure rise, quick temperature jump. 

[Nittany88]

Just a friendly reminder that it's time to dust off the old winter weather procedures at work. AWIPS-2 transition thrashed a lot of what I had built before.

 

Ugh.

[weatherMA]

lol at the Chris lambert, Tim Kelley, Scott back and forth on twitter about next weekend. Good stuff

[powderfreak]

We've actually had some good storms in

November that aren't frozen. I remember some nasty ones. Don't forget the big snow many had after Sandy.

True...it just seems historically October has the better storms and November can be dull.

[powderfreak]

for PFs rain only in SLK? Lol no other support but that's not a rain storm in NNE ever

We know how accurate the snow maps are... But it just seemed mild in the low levels is all.

[Ginx snewx]

True...it just seems historically October has the better storms and November can be dull.

hungover?https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=1g5NVObbJIiryQShpILwCw&url=http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/078/mwr-078-11-0204.pdf&ved=0CC8QFjAJ&usg=AFQjCNFhBcN7LA7DZHliCVEmmtvUpBS10g&sig2=xkWw2ji8gfno1cm0gC7qwA

[moneypitmike]

A reminder of good things--one week from today the model runs will be an hour earlier.

[Typhoon Tip]

Jesus... looking on BUFKIT the GFS supports 60+ knot wind gusts at BDL Saturday lol

 

Big time isallobaric wind burst signaled ...  Huge DPVA and obscene mlv wind acceleration in the day requires some serious q-vector forcing/and low pressure genesis beneath, and as that implosion moves off there's got to be some cross-isobaric restoring force there one would think...

 

Hhehhh, given that solution, that is...    for the win  

[powderfreak]

IF the GFS system came true with a 526 5h -11 850 bomb you in NNE wouldn't have to worry about soundings.

Wait are you talking about 6z or 0z?

00z the map I posted was too warm below 925mb...06z was colder and more snowy like the snow map you posted.

[powderfreak]

hungover?https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=1g5NVObbJIiryQShpILwCw&url=http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/078/mwr-078-11-0204.pdf&ved=0CC8QFjAJ&usg=AFQjCNFhBcN7LA7DZHliCVEmmtvUpBS10g&sig2=xkWw2ji8gfno1cm0gC7qwA

Yeah there have been big storms in every month of the year and that 1950 one was a monster.

I can think of more large October storms in the past 10 years than Nov ones is all. 2005, 2008, 2011, Sandy, but nothing major comes to mind in November except for the one after Sandy. October seems to get more tropical mixed with synoptic storms or tropical transitioning extra tropical.

[powderfreak]

Congrats SLK....looking at soundings they'd have the best chance with that deterministic solution. Pretty warm elsewhere until good NW flow develops.

image.jpg

Ginxy this is what I was looking at for 1200ft at MPV...850 is below freezing but thick low level warmth below that until the good NW flow develops.

[Typhoon Tip]

For what it is not worth the 00z UKMET free-chart looks very ominous for D6:

 

 

 

After looking things over, it appears the southern stream component in all this is a bit weaker in all guidance compared to what was depicted during the runs/trends from 24 hours ago.  The consequence of that seemingly minor discontinuity is a bigger ramification for deterministic mid/extended range forecaster headaches...  (as though that range did not always come along with migraines anyway).

 

The GFS shows remarkable consistency with the N/Polar stream, showing powerful incursion of mid and upper level wave dynamics through the Lakes on a very impressive meridional trajectory. Due to the lacked southern stream, better baroclinic zone is not detected by these incredible dynamics until this is scooting east of New England, but not too fast that there cannot be wrap around ...fledgling CCB activity into CNE.  That's the gist of 00z/06z oper. GFS blend...

 

Okay... But, looking back out over the Pacific upon the 00z initialization... the dynamic interplay between vestigial TC Ana and mid-stream S/W was just beginning to take place out around 40N/160W.   I'd like to see that resolve its self and/or get sampled more discretely then sat -derived/assimilated grid population.

 

Here's the problem with that... Should a strong southern component S/W evolve out of that integration out over the Pacific then you get a more up-down trough orientation [eventually] in the east, with a less progressive GFS-like result. The reason why is because more southern stream induces the phase sooner ...blah blah more intensity slows the whole thing down/carves out feed-back amplitude, and so on.  With less southern stream, however, ...it's kind of metaphoric to a rock skipping off a pond -- the N stream comes down and zips east off the top of the latent southern geopotential medium.. It's just that the current GFS idea has soooo much overwhelming mechanics with the N stream, it's still managing to bring interesting aspects in those depictions.

 

The Euro seems weaker with the N stream, as well as not really doing much with the Ana aspect of all this... Yesterday, the Euro was quite strong with N stream, however, but has since backed off.  It seems easier to go with the Euro, simply because it is less anomalous (where "anomalies" are rarefied - duh).  But, I caution that back ground teleconnectors still support something largely perturbed in the flow during the time frames in question, but also ... the Euro is presently the model with the most continuity issues...    

[Typhoon Tip]

Ginxy this is what I was looking at for 1200ft at MPV...850 is below freezing but thick low level warmth below that until the good NW flow develops.

 

 

Powder',

fwiw - I don't think that MPV clown graph would verify given the synoptics.  I have no idea how that product is derived, but that column up there crashes like Value Jet and that graph has way to many liquid hours given the extremeness of synoptic appeal here.  Just my opinion ..

[powderfreak]

Powder',

fwiw - I don't think that MPV clown graph would verify given the synoptics. I have no idea how that product is derived, but that column up there crashes like Value Jet and that graph has way to many liquid hours given the extremeness of synoptic appeal here. Just my opinion ..

I was just going by the thermal profile there...the liquid matches the thermal profile the model is spitting out. Maybe it would be different in real life but at that point you can just go by the soundings.

Do you see how thick the warm layer is on the thermal time series? The second chart in my post...is that sounding different on other products like twister data?

[wxjim207]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyaLZHiJJnE

Always love that movie! 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

For what it is not worth the 00z UKMET free-chart looks very ominous for D6:

ukmet.jpg

After looking things over, it appears the southern stream component in all this is a bit weaker in all guidance compared to what was depicted during the runs/trends from 24 hours ago. The consequence of that seemingly minor discontinuity is a bigger ramification for deterministic mid/extended range forecaster headaches... (as though that range did not always come along with migraines anyway).

The GFS shows remarkable consistency with the N/Polar stream, showing powerful incursion of mid and upper level wave dynamics through the Lakes on a very impressive meridional trajectory. Due to the lacked southern stream, better baroclinic zone is not detected by these incredible dynamics until this is scooting east of New England, but not too fast that there cannot be wrap around ...fledgling CCB activity into CNE. That's the gist of 00z/06z oper. GFS blend...

Okay... But, looking back out over the Pacific upon the 00z initialization... the dynamic interplay between vestigial TC Ana and mid-stream S/W was just beginning to take place out around 40N/160W. I'd like to see that resolve its self and/or get sampled more discretely then sat -derived/assimilated grid population.

Here's the problem with that... Should a strong southern component S/W evolve out of that integration out over the Pacific then you get a more up-down trough orientation [eventually] in the east, with a less progressive GFS-like result. The reason why is because more southern stream induces the phase sooner ...blah blah more intensity slows the whole thing down/carves out feed-back amplitude, and so on. With less southern stream, however, ...it's kind of metaphoric to a rock skipping off a pond -- the N stream comes down and zips east off the top of the latent southern geopotential medium.. It's just that the current GFS idea has soooo much overwhelming mechanics with the N stream, it's still managing to bring interesting aspects in those depictions.

The Euro seems weaker with the N stream, as well as not really doing much with the Ana aspect of all this... Yesterday, the Euro was quite strong with N stream, however, but has since backed off. It seems easier to go with the Euro, simply because it is less anomalous (where "anomalies" are rarefied - duh). But, I caution that back ground teleconnectors still support something largely perturbed in the flow during the time frames in question, but also ... the Euro is presently the model with the most continuity issues...

Interesting, thank you.