ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm not buying what the D7-8 OP ECMWF is selling me. I'll reassess in 48 hours. That's my stance. I do agree that there is a pretty decent signal for some type of storm along/near the east coast in that time frame, but the details are going to be just model fodder at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah I agree with you about something near the East Coast....all I'm saying is that it seems a little over-amped. Won't argue that the Euro is over doing it, but how... Firstly, I'm proooobably the biggest cheerleader on the blogosphere re not trusting the Euro -trash mega party solutions it sells on it's D6-10 ranges. Having said that, it's a little disconcerting this 12z GFS insane depth in central NE. You take a straight up blend on these and...absurd or not, more than one or two zones from the MA to NE get taken out behind the wood pile. Goodness. I mean, typically at this range the GFS has a bit of an opposing bias of being too progressive, so it's overcoming that is ...well, interesting. Leave it at that. The important take away this early in the game is the recognition of potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm not buying what the D7-8 OP ECMWF is selling me. I'll reassess in 48 hours. That's my stance. I do agree that there is a pretty decent signal for some type of storm along/near the east coast in that time frame, but the details are going to be just model fodder at this point. Easy to walk away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 true or false, if nothing else these long lead systems that show up on the models will often give a clue as to model performance of future forecasts for the season some seasonal patterns, the Euro latches on early and does well, while others it doesn't decent early test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 in any event, it's a classic "DT's honking" run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 true or false, if nothing else these long lead systems that show up on the models will often give a clue as to model performance of future forecasts for the season some seasonal patterns, the Euro latches on early and does well, while others it doesn't decent early test I haven't seen any evidence to support either claim...but I'd lean skeptical (as in false) until someone provides solid evidence that a model performing well in October or November means it performs well in the following winter. I'd probably play it the way it normally gets played in the winter...favor Euro/Euro ens in this time range...don't get caught up in details. Euro and its ensembles have been hinting at this for a couple days now but now the GEFS are coming on board a bit. Seems to be a believable story in any long-range modeled storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I haven't seen any evidence to support either claim...but I'd lean skeptical (as in false) until someone provides solid evidence that a model performing well in October or November means it performs well in the following winter. I'd probably play it the way it normally gets played in the winter...favor Euro/Euro ens in this time range...don't get caught up in details. Euro and its ensembles have been hinting at this for a couple days now but now the GEFS are coming on board a bit. Seems to be a believable story in any long-range modeled storm. believe me, I do not think me or anyone south of me is getting snow anytime soon like I said, I'm more interested in assessing early season model performance p.s. but that doesn't mean I won't look at the Wunderground Euro snowfall maps from the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It looks like the euro overdoing things in the day 7+ timeframe and possibly exacerbated by autumn tendency to cutoff anyways given the changing wavelengths. That said..I agree with Tippy and Will about the signal being there and probably leaning towards and EC type solution..favoring the ensembles. Normal day 7+ caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Of course I did scoff a bit at the euro solution for this past storm and we know what happened....it's just that this solution is quite extreme. It also moved north from 00z so it may be correcting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I haven't seen any evidence to support either claim...but I'd lean skeptical (as in false) until someone provides solid evidence that a model performing well in October or November means it performs well in the following winter. I'd probably play it the way it normally gets played in the winter...favor Euro/Euro ens in this time range...don't get caught up in details. Euro and its ensembles have been hinting at this for a couple days now but now the GEFS are coming on board a bit. Seems to be a believable story in any long-range modeled storm. Yeah ... model performance seems to vary more based on a number other criteria, unique to each models strength and weakness'. For example, as simple model to explain this: If the pattern is longitudinal ...meaning, it is flatter/zonal in structure, the GFS may perform better than the Euro (we're talking middle/extended ranges); contrasting, if the flow is "buckled" and "blocky", featuring steeper/angular wave structures, the Euro would like perform better than the GFS -- which would be trying to "stretch" the flow. The UKMENT, GGEM, NOGAPS ... they all have their own peccadillo biases, too. I suppose if a pattern is multi-month locked in one form or the other, it could be studied that some models fair better over that longer period. But seeing as most patterns are have intra-time span distractions, what then? Inclined to say false as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 How much are we thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 How much are we thinking? Kevin is a 5'11" hornet nest poker. His mind is some deviant 12 year old with a penchants for destruction and torment... He comes in, assesses the best possible nest poke point, then pumps the poker into it with this beady eyed violent refrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 This is one of those 7 days deals where the euro ensemble will come in and get the weenies all excited. LOL. Many moving parts though. Regardless of any storm, coldest air of the season likely to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 This is one of those 7 days deals where the euro ensemble will come in and get the weenies all excited. LOL. Many moving parts though. Regardless of any storm, coldest air of the season likely to appear.who you kidding you won"t miss a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 who you kidding you won"t miss a run What does that mean? I'm referring to knowing when to hold and knowing when to fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Looks like the landscaping crew is leaf blowing near the ASOS at ORH. KORH 251927Z 26008KT 1 1/2SM HZ CLR 16/04 A2964 RMK AO2 T01560044= (SPECI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 How much are we thinking? Can anyone say how many that post deserves??? I might have a bumpy flight to BDL on my return from Blacksburg on Sunday. Of course, D7 so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Kevin is a 5'11" hornet nest poker. His mind is some deviant 12 year old with a penchants for destruction and torment... He comes in, assesses the best possible nest poke point, then pumps the poker into it with this beady eyed violent refrain.Im at a soccer tourney all day and I log in and see mets talking about a snowstorm next weekend.. So I was just curious on amounts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Im at a soccer tourney all day and I log in and see mets talking about a snowstorm next weekend.. So I was just curious on amounts ? Go back to being the ball boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Im at a soccer tourney all day and I log in and see mets talking about a snowstorm next weekend.. So I was just curious on amounts ? Who mentioned a snowstorm on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Mitchnick, if anything I think it's quite difficult to judge model performance at a time when we are undergoing seasonal transition. Once things become stable, then perhaps your thought on model performance may have more merit, but I think it's too simplified. A more accurate description could be model biases. For instance the GFS being too cold 4-5 days out..etc or too far SE. This is just an example...not trying to imply that yet. We've been able to call out the biases in past winters in a well established regime like the 07 and 08 La Ninas..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Who mentioned a snowstorm on here? He knows ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What does that mean? I'm referring to knowing when to hold and knowing when to fold.I kind of like the 100 mph 850 winds though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 He knows ... He's so good at it...just getting multiple fish per cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 How much for VA Beach? Lol...I see SOME similarities with the N American upper air pattern from Nov 5-7 53 and today's 12z EURO...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Who mentioned a snowstorm on here?Pretty much everyone posting this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 How much are we thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Pretty much everyone posting this afternoonI don't even know how to respond to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Just ignore his troll bait...it's not that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I don't even know how to respond to that Well then is it rain? I haven't seen any models all day and was just checking in. So is it rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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