CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 He didn't and that's not what I said Did you wake up still drunk? Your post reads that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 PWM now with the latest freeze on record (still active streak too).Yeah. I saw that on Eric Fishers tv report last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Here's that post from Will lol http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28304-second-winter-storm-threat-oct-2930/?p=1067415 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah. I saw that on Eric Fishers tv report last night Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah. I saw that on Eric Fishers tv report last nightBTV still waiting for a freeze as well.Winter cancel. Yup, winter only coming for those that freeze prior to late-October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Some nice warm wx coming up this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Pony-Os getting restless. Jspin anxiously awaiting to do his first report in snow water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Pony-Os getting restless. Jspin anxiously awaiting to do his first report in snow water content.You sound restless lol.JSpin already did his first trace report. Honestly despite the warmth of +5 we've hit our average first dates of frozen, snow accum on the mountain, first freeze, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Last night was sneaky chilly, still 32F at 8am with ice on the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Worst AFD in history? LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... OTHER THAN THE NAM...NWP SYSTEMS APPEAR IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON PASSING CLOSE TO THE 40/70 CLIMATOLOGICAL BENCHMARK. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A FAIRLY CLASSIC WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR REGION IF IT WERE NOT OCTOBER. 09Z SREF...12Z GEFS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE INCLUDED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ALL ETA MEMBERS OF THE SREF WERE DISCOUNTED AS WELL AS THE 12Z NAM. PTYPE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IS THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE...THUS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE DETAILS. HERE`S MY THINKING... 1. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EVENT WHERE SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW HAS NEVER BEEN OBSERVED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN PER THE 1ST ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS. EVEN INLAND...SCANS OF THE COOP DATA SHOWS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST UNHEARD OF. 2. MOST PCPN IS IN THE AFTN AND SOLAR RADIATION WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS. 3. LASTLY...I COULD NOT FIND SUPPORT OF SFC TEMPS BEING BELOW FREEZING IN ANY OF THE PROFILES I EXAMINED. THUS...IN COLLABORATION WITH HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFO`S...WE HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER INLAND ELEVATION AND ONLY ALLOWED FOR SLUSHY TRACE AMOUNTS ON THE COAST - MOST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE AT LEAST 500` IF NOT 1000` SAT AFTN. ONCE THE SUN SETS THOUGH...ACCUMULATION IN THE EVENING IS LIKELY FOR THE INLAND ROADWAYS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. NO ROADWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND NYC. IMPACT TO TREES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS DECIDUOUS TREES MAY EASILY SHED REMAINING LEAVES. THUS THE WEIGHT ON TREES MAY NOT BE AS BIG A PROBLEMS AS ONE MIGHT SPECULATE AS IT`S PAST PEAK COLOR FOR INLAND AREAS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH FOR IMPACT AS WELL AS THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (THOUGH IT`S NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 You sound restless lol. JSpin already did his first trace report. Honestly despite the warmth of +5 we've hit our average first dates of frozen, snow accum on the mountain, first freeze, etc. LOL couldn't be better. Just based on the tone in NNE, seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah Ginx.. Awful. They couldn't have gotten more things wrong if they tried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 AFD oopsie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Winter cancel.Portland has a pretty long track record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Is that from 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah Ginx.. Awful. They couldn't have gotten more things wrong if they triedDay shift came in and totally rewrote it, snow starting sticking to roads and trees as soon as it fell in their FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Is that from 2011?OKX 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 LOL couldn't be better. Just based on the tone in NNE, seems that way. Haha I wasn't getting that feeling, you mean the BTV and PWM waiting for first freeze comments? I feel like Tolland summit is antsy. The warm October doesn't bother me at all, still got to see snow and hit all the main dates. Just commenting on the warmth and other climo notes this morning but in no way antsy. The chill will come. I'm leaving in 2 days to travel and won't be back up here till Nov 5th so really couldn't care haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Day shift came in and totally rewrote it, snow starting sticking to roads and trees as soon as it fell in their FA.It was almost like that forecaster had just moved here from Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 OKX 2011 What was the date/time on that one? Glad we totally tossed it and went with our own forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 OKX 2011 "perfect winter storm were it not October". I'm sure they wish they could erase that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Please don't live link things in threads , we lost the historical maps, wiz and Bob were the major offenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What was the date/time on that one? Glad we totally tossed it and went with our own forecast lol 27 Oct 2011 0400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Please don't live link things in threads , we lost the historical maps, wiz and Bob were the major offenders. Yeah, in old threads you see that a lot. Like all the old Messenger posts are live linked RUC/HRRR and satellite/radar...so you can't really tell what he's talking about anymore. I end up having to delete them though as my attachments fill up, so that's no better sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What was the date/time on that one? Glad we totally tossed it and went with our own forecast lol yep you did'CT Rain', on 27 Oct 2011 - 8:03 PM, said: I'm totally balls to the wall for Saturday. I'm not sure what OKX is looking at for their interior zones... we had snow accumulation on the roads in the valleys tonight after 30 minutes of snow lol. In fact this looks colder than some of our normal winter storms! Barring a sizable shift west it's game on for a 5-10" snowstorm for many interior areas... possibly higher lollis in the hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah, in old threads you see that a lot. Like all the old Messenger posts are live linked RUC/HRRR and satellite/radar...so you can't really tell what he's talking about anymore.A lot of my attachments are gone, wonder what happened to the DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It really hasn't been a warm month. It's the nighttime lows that are killing us. If you asked folks..they wouldn't say this month has been a torch It hasn't been cold. Noone said that. Just that it hasn't felt like a torch month unless you live at night and sleep all day I wish we could use these posts during this past summer heres storm 2 Roctober first discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28304-second-winter-storm-threat-oct-2930/# I remember you responding a a skew-t I had posted for the Pit and you said "that's a bumper to bumper isothermal bomb for you". Truer words had not been spoken. I'd love to see the early part of that obs thread where Pete, Mitch and I were sitting in whiteout conditions (not sure if Chris was snow from the onset or not) starting at noon or so that day. Inches upon inches/hour ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 A co-worker had a discussion with Harvey about that storm. As anomalous as it was, sometimes you have to look at the data that's in your face, put your balls out there and go for it. I mean eff the fact no first order stations reported it....look at the dam data for God's sake. I came in that morning to help a co-worker out. I remember immediately saying amend all these TAFs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 A lot of my attachments are gone, wonder what happened to the DB Do you ever have to clean yours out? I notice a lot of my photos and cell phone screen shots and stuff are big files so it starts knocking old posts out. I've started putting more on photobucket to host my AMWX media so it wont disappear later in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Do you ever have to clean yours out? I notice a lot of my photos and cell phone screen shots and stuff are big files so it starts knocking old posts out. I've started putting more on photobucket to host my AMWX media so it wont disappear later in time. That's a good idea. You can donate too to get storage. I did that last year. Probably should this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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