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October Discussion


TalcottWx

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Early November def looks colder on the Euro ensembles. But its still probably pretty close to normal...since it was mild previously. Plains are still mild...we're trying to cool from the NNW which makes it hard to sustain. So it would probably be some alternating cold shots with brief warmups.

 

But that's just how it looks now. 2 weeks out and beyond can obviously change.

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Why wouldn't it be possible to have it normal to below from early Nov on?

 

 

It is possible...just pretty damned rare. So if you wanted the best odds of a good winter pattern through the holidays, you'd probably root for a flip in later November....or even in early December.

 

At any rate, long ways to go.

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Early November def looks colder on the Euro ensembles. But its still probably pretty close to normal...since it was mild previously. Plains are still mild...we're trying to cool from the NNW which makes it hard to sustain. So it would probably be some alternating cold shots with brief warmups.

But that's just how it looks now. 2 weeks out and beyond can obviously change.

Subtle trend over last several days of split flow look and raising heights near NW Canada.

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