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October Discussion


TalcottWx

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Starting to see an interesting gradient pattern heading into novie. The dam vortex is so big in NE Canada, that it's keeping Quebec cold and that's spilling into NE. The Plains will roast, but it seems like the warmth may not have an easy time making it into new England. That's not to say it won't, but it has that look.

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Starting to see an interesting gradient pattern heading into novie. The dam vortex is so big in NE Canada, that it's keeping Quebec cold and that's spilling into NE. The Plains will roast, but it seems like the warmth may not have an easy time making it into new England. That's not to say it won't, but it has that look.

.

45 here, 65 KNYC ?

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Starting to see an interesting gradient pattern heading into novie. The dam vortex is so big in NE Canada, that it's keeping Quebec cold and that's spilling into NE. The Plains will roast, but it seems like the warmth may not have an easy time making it into new England. That's not to say it won't, but it has that look.

2004-05 walking though that open door.

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Progress is being made, however.   For those who pine yearly for winter's return ... not much to grouse about. 

 

36000573109 -1915 123218 38070094

42000602846 -2222 153015 42059996 

 

(NAM FRH grid for BOS)

 

That's a snow column there, and per my own recollection I believe the first insert of this type of air mass this transition season.  The only aspect ( I think ) stopping a harder freeze for just about everyone midnight to 8am Monday is the wind.  However, any locations in the interior that manage to decouple during those 6-8 hours is going see their temperatures drop like a blind roofer!  

 

Tomorrow is going to be a classic football day, with temperatures steady and falling through the 40s out of doors, while the white noise of crowd roar occasionally cleaves open heavy eye-lids upon the couch.  The same grid data, above, has it at or below 0C as low as 900mbs by 18z tomorrow, with a classic razor thin autumn thermal layer at the bottom.  In fact, +7C at 1000mb and 0C at 900 is adiabatically unstable.  Could also see the first ice-virga enshrouded CU/Strata CU whizzing by. 

 

This was the air mass that prompted me to start that low probability for a snow thread last week.  Though the atmosphere appears to moderate too quickly for any coastal here-after, sufficed it is to see ...in the greater scheme of things this was close call.  If that coastal were to have evolved sooner, you most likely could not saturate those numbers above and not snow ;) 

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