RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It's pretty cool seeing the amount of trees losing leaves as you drive up I91...stark difference between fairfield and hartford counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Welcome dude. Nice to have another poster from CT. Sounds like you're a Game of Thrones fan too FTW LOL, no, I am not a game of thrones fan. But thank you for the warm welcome :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It's pretty cool seeing the amount of trees losing leaves as you drive up I91...stark difference between fairfield and hartford counties.Still a good amount of green, and very few bare trees. Peak will probably be next week which is about the average. I'm surprised 91 through that stretch from Middletown to Hartford is bare. I drove through there less than two weeks ago and it didn't appear to even be at peak yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Still a good amount of green, and very few bare trees. Peak will probably be next week which is about the average. I'm surprised 91 through that stretch from Middletown to Hartford is bare. I drove through there less than two weeks ago and it didn't appear to even be at peak yet. Oh no I'm not saying it's all bare. Just that there are some trees that are bare while in lower fairfield county there are hardly any bare trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It also seems like there are more bare trees in the valley then the elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Gradient pattern incoming first week of Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Gradient pattern incoming first week of Nov? Remember last year's melts when people discussed gradient pattern? Folks on the wrong side seethe...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Gradient pattern incoming first week of Nov?I think Thats what we have to hope for. That would tone down the torch in NOV that Mets are talking about and if we get lucky on right side of front maybe an ice or snow event. At least keep things cool to get into holiday spirit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The appearance of some AK ridging at the end of the euro and GFS ops would bring in some arctic air into NA. More than likely some of it would feed back into the low amplitude trough off the west coast and bring rain to Cali... might cut off out there or at least come out slowly while the SE ridge makes an appearance. Eventually moisture would ride up the gradient... If all that were to occur (big IF obviously) the wild card could be some blocking which would shear everything out and help shunt it east. It's lala land I know... Do think that kind of evolution is possible over the next few weeks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 There is definitely a gradient look, agree. Kevin is way too worried as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Good Evening Fella's Just joined up a few minutes ago. Have been a long time Lurker over here(a couple years), and finally decided to join up. I am currently a member over at the Accuweather Forums, and have been for quite sometime. Lot's of great knowledgeable guys over there too, but love the expert commentary by so many of your members here as well. I'm Looking forward to spending some time here with all of you fine people this winter season, and soaking in some of your great info!! Glad to be here, and I will contribute when I can(really not all to knowledgeable in comparison to all of you), but Thank You for having me :-). Interesting set-up/look on the Operationals and Ensembles for next week. It will be interesting how this all plays out. Love to see something like this about a month to six weeks from now!! Welcome aboard! 5 runs in a row now of the Euro having the cold shot around the 26th..and changing the pattern in and around Alaska Snow possibility up this way for at least the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Could be a bit of a SOS signal next week. October cutoffs can be prolific rain producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Welcome aboard! Snow possibility up this way for at least the higher elevations Yeah its the time of year when the higher elevations up in NNE will start getting more regular shots at flakes. Of course, I'm heading out of town for 10 days at the end of this month into early November (last chance to leave town before April 21st, haha), so you can bet on some sort of Condo Collapser type event during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Another day of weather excitement across the Lower 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Could be a bit of a SOS signal next week. October cutoffs can be prolific rain producers. Just sitting and spinning...some of these runs have just a huge mid-level circulation. How a H7 low near ACY ends up with moisture from northern Maine all the way to BTV-BUF-PIT is a huge swath. Can't see QPF, but the H7 moisture plume is fairly impressive on last night's ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Just sitting and spinning...some of these runs have just a huge mid-level circulation. How a H7 low near ACY ends up with moisture from northern Maine all the way to BTV-BUF-PIT is a huge swath. Can't see QPF, but the H7 moisture plume is fairly impressive on last night's ECMWF. There's no doubt that in winter, you'd get screwed on that depiction since it takes a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 There's no doubt that in winter, you'd get screwed on that depiction since it takes a benchmark track.HA! I was actually going to post that. That low looks near BOS though... I still maintain there's a climo favored track...just like the Benchmark for you SNE guys. You could still get screwed by a Benchmark track and win with a BOS Harbor track, but why does everyone talk about the 40/70 track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Someone from Philly to Maine is going to get dumped on next week. The GFS and Euro have shifted more towards New England. The 00z Euro had 5-8" up there next week and we're not talking about the white stuff. It's pretty rare to ever see that much QPF on the Euro outside of tropical systems. I think it's just a matter of where the H5 closes off. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that it's going to happen, where is the $64,000 question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 HA! I was actually going to post that. That low looks near BOS though... I still maintain there's a climo favored track...just like the Benchmark for you SNE guys. You could still get screwed by a Benchmark track and win with a BOS Harbor track, but why does everyone talk about the 40/70 track? That low is definitely at least 50 miles E of BOS (E of the cape longitude) and it tracks right over the BM before getting there...but its 168 hour prog anyway. I'm mostly just teasing you for your adamant hatred of BM tracks...showing that they aren't as bad you probably portray them to be. I do agree that there is a climo favored track. Thats's why the term benchmark exists in the first place as it is climo favored for big SNE snowstorms. But as is usual, it's all about the mid-level low. The one on the Euro is a monstrous feature with a huge circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 While it's the end of the world in Hawaii. HAHA Another day of weather excitement across the Lower 48... Untitled.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 We were 3 SD higher last night for PWAT's for giggles. This thing looks ugly on EURO. I agree in finding it very interesting that it has very high QPF. Not often you see that on non tropical cyclones. Someone from Philly to Maine is going to get dumped on next week. The GFS and Euro have shifted more towards New England. The 00z Euro had 5-8" up there next week and we're not talking about the white stuff. It's pretty rare to ever see that much QPF on the Euro outside of tropical systems. I think it's just a matter of where the H5 closes off. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that it's going to happen, where is the $64,000 question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Might as well get the big cutoff lows out of the way before we hit late December into January right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Might as well get the big cutoff lows out of the way before we hit late December into January right? In this setup the mid levels would torch and most areas would flip over to rain. Would probably be great for the whites and greens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather.St Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 In this setup the mid levels would torch and most areas would flip over to rain. Would probably be great for the whites and greens though. To be honest, some of these setups can be wild cards. So who's to say anything would have happened other than all rain or all snow? Just silly to even speculate when we already know it's rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Another day of weather excitement across the Lower 48... Untitled.jpg its definetly been an interesting week of weather and next week promises more of the same, can't be interesting every day in Oct especially although a cat 4 in BM is very cool, surfs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 To be honest, some of these setups can be wild cards. So who's to say anything would have happened other than all rain or all snow? Just silly to even speculate when we already know it's rain. lol Well you're going to have a direct feed off the ocean in this setup with the mid level closed lows to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 its definetly been an interesting week of weather and next week promises more of the same, can't be interesting every day in Oct especially although a cat 4 in BM is very cool, surfs up It was tongue in cheek more that it's rare to see the entire lower 48 without a watch or warning of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 That low is definitely at least 50 miles E of BOS (E of the cape longitude) and it tracks right over the BM before getting there...but its 168 hour prog anyway. I'm mostly just teasing you for your adamant hatred of BM tracks...showing that they aren't as bad you probably portray them to be. I do agree that there is a climo favored track. Thats's why the term benchmark exists in the first place as it is climo favored for big SNE snowstorms. But as is usual, it's all about the mid-level low. The one on the Euro is a monstrous feature with a huge circulation. Yeah I have to watch how I come off...in my head I never am thinking in absolutes but I know it comes off that way sometimes...same with the obscenely -NAO stuff. I just go by climo favored tracks, though mid-level lows play a more important role, but like you said Benchmark tracks weren't named because they bring big snows to northern VT lol. Likewise, a low sitting off Boston Harbor can bring a blizzard to SNE if wrapped up tightly, but that's not the track you guys are wishing for when speaking in hypothetical ideal or wishful situations...which is how that all started lol. Ginxy wants a benchmark track slow crawler, I'd rather take my chances with a coastline hugger. Obviously there are exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Well you're going to have a direct feed off the ocean in this setup with the mid level closed lows to your south.sort of like March 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Yeah I have to watch how I come off...in my head I never am thinking in absolutes but I know it comes off that way sometimes...same with the obscenely -NAO stuff. I just go by climo favored tracks, though mid-level lows play a more important role, but like you said Benchmark tracks weren't named because they bring big snows to northern VT lol. Likewise, a low sitting off Boston Harbor can bring a blizzard to SNE if wrapped up tightly, but that's not the track you guys are wishing for when speaking in hypothetical ideal or wishful situations. 41/70 is what i prefer............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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