dryslot Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro may have sniffed another one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I like it. Trend the coastals to winter. Slow as they go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks more like another cut off low rather than a noreaster. Just sits and spins for days. Not saying it would happen but wow what a long NE fetch high surf cold miserable stretch would that produce 123 Tue 10/21 15Z 56 ° 56 ° 49 ° 47 ° ESE 7 SSE 16 S 18 0.01 0.00 545 559 -19 ° 4 ° 8 ° 1017 99 % 3 ° 126 Tue 10/21 18Z 56 ° 56 ° 49 ° 51 ° ESE 7 SSE 16 S 18 0.08 0.05 546 559 -22 ° 4 ° 8 ° 1015 100 % 3 ° 129 Tue 10/21 21Z 54 ° 56 ° 54 ° 51 ° ENE 9 ESE 11 SSE 11 0.04 0.02 547 559 -22 ° 5 ° 9 ° 1015 98 % 3 ° 132 Wed 10/22 00Z 52 ° 57 ° 52 ° 50 ° NE 11 ESE 22 SE 13 0.02 0.01 547 560 -22 ° 5 ° 9 ° 1016 96 % 4 ° 135 Wed 10/22 03Z 51 ° 52 ° 51 ° 50 ° NE 11 E 27 ESE 20 0.01 0.00 547 560 -22 ° 5 ° 10 ° 1016 96 % 4 ° 138 Wed 10/22 06Z 51 ° 52 ° 51 ° 50 ° NE 13 E 34 E 27 0.00 0.00 547 560 -23 ° 6 ° 10 ° 1015 86 % 5 ° 141 Wed 10/22 09Z 52 ° 52 ° 51 ° 51 ° NE 13 ENE 43 E 34 0.07 0.06 547 559 -22 ° 5 ° 8 ° 1015 82 % 5 ° 144 Wed 10/22 12Z 52 ° 53 ° 51 ° 50 ° NE 16 ENE 47 E 38 0.03 0.01 548 560 -22 ° 5 ° 8 ° 1015 90 % 4 ° 147 Wed 10/22 15Z 53 ° 53 ° 52 ° 50 ° NE 20 ENE 58 E 47 0.07 0.04 549 561 -21 ° 5 ° 8 ° 1015 95 % 5 ° 150 Wed 10/22 18Z 51 ° 53 ° 50 ° 47 ° NNE 22 NE 63 E 51 0.04 0.02 549 560 -20 ° 6 ° 7 ° 1013 96 % 5 ° 153 Wed 10/22 21Z 48 ° 51 ° 48 ° 46 ° NNE 20 NE 60 ENE 47 0.04 0.01 550 560 -20 ° 7 ° 9 ° 1013 98 % 7 ° 156 Thu 10/23 00Z 48 ° 51 ° 47 ° 46 ° NNE 20 NE 58 E 43 0.09 0.04 551 561 -20 ° 8 ° 9 ° 1012 94 % 6 ° 159 Thu 10/23 03Z 51 ° 51 ° 49 ° 49 ° NNE 18 ENE 51 E 36 0.06 0.04 551 560 -20 ° 9 ° 10 ° 1011 89 % 6 ° 162 Thu 10/23 06Z 51 ° 52 ° 49 ° 49 ° NE 18 ENE 51 E 36 0.05 0.03 551 560 -20 ° 8 ° 10 ° 1010 91 % 6 ° 165 Thu 10/23 09Z 50 ° 52 ° 50 ° 48 ° NNE 18 ENE 49 E 34 0.02 0.00 553 561 -19 ° 8 ° 12 ° 1010 87 % 6 ° 168 Thu 10/23 12Z 48 ° 52 ° 48 ° 47 ° NNE 18 ENE 56 ENE 40 0.18 0.01 553 562 -19 ° 8 ° 10 ° 1011 93 % 7 ° 171 Thu 10/23 15Z 49 ° 50 ° 48 ° 47 ° NNE 20 ENE 58 E 43 0.07 0.02 554 563 -18 ° 9 ° 9 ° 1011 99 % 7 ° 174 Thu 10/23 18Z 50 ° 51 ° 48 ° 47 ° NNE 20 NE 51 E 38 0.03 0.02 554 562 -17 ° 9 ° 10 ° 1010 100 % 7 ° 177 Thu 10/23 21Z 47 ° 50 ° 47 ° 45 ° NNE 18 NE 58 ENE 38 0.13 0.00 554 562 -16 ° 8 ° 8 ° 1009 100 % 7 ° 180 Fri 10/24 00Z 47 ° 50 ° 46 ° 45 ° NNE 18 NE 54 ENE 36 0.22 0.00 554 562 -16 ° 8 ° 9 ° 1009 100 % 7 ° FCST Hour ValidTime MaxTemp °F MinTemp °F Td°F 10m Wind mph 925mb Wind mph 850mb Wind mph Total Precip(") Conv. Precip(") 500-1000 THKNS 500mb Height 500mb Temp °C 850mb Temp °C 925mb Temp °C MSLP mb Total Cloud Cover 850mb Td(°C) 192 Fri 10/24 12Z 52 ° 51 ° 50 ° N 13 NNE 31 NE 29 0.22 0.02 555 559 -15 ° 7 ° 10 ° 1005 98 % 5 ° 204 Sat 10/25 00Z 52 ° 49 ° 49 ° NNW 13 N 36 N 31 0.48 0.00 556 560 -14 ° 8 ° 9 ° 1005 98 % 7 ° 216 Sat 10/25 12Z 51 ° 42 ° 42 ° NW 9 NNW 25 NNW 27 0.01 0.00 554 561 -15 ° 9 ° 9 ° 1007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro next week 5"+ qpf up here..................... :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro crushes parts of Maine with copious rains with coastal next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro crushes parts of Maine with copious rains with coastal next week Absolutely..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Hmm. Maybe it will be days of rain. Definitely ensemble support for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Great ensemble support from the GFS for the coastal/cutoff low next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Kind of cool to see the cutoff evolution. When I spoke about the s/w diving SSE thanks to the ridge in the high Plains..it's still there. The GOA low which spun off the s/w actually digs SW and doesn't act as the kicker as heights rebuild out west. The Plains ridge sort of folds over southern Hudson Bay as well. As a result, it just cuts off with no real kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Kind of cool to see the cutoff evolution. When I spoke about the s/w diving SSE thanks to the ridge in the high Plains..it's still there. The GOA low which spun off the s/w actually digs SW and doesn't act as the kicker as heights rebuild out west. The Plains ridge sort of folds over southern Hudson Bay as well. As a result, it just cuts off with no real kicker. Yes, if you go back to yesterday the models were using that as a kicker but have since gone back to the origional idea that you mentioned. Seeing that type of ensemble support increases confidence. WPC is already painting signifcant rains in the grid for days 6-7, and that was issued before the 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Mountain snows with this bad boy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Gonna be flakes somewhere under core of that cold ULL. mark the words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro still with sig cold shot day 10..3 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like its well supported Op wise and Ensemble member wise, Just a matter of what lat it cuts off at i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Mountain snows with this bad boy? Not unless you live in Canada. Don't fall victim to the hyper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Its actually more likely to get flakes in that system out in places like Garrett County MD and Snowshoe WV than in New England as the core of the upper level cold ends up out there. We don't have a chance unless the whole things was much further northeast and remained just as deep...an unlikely combination. Perhaps it could start as a few flakes on the picnic tables up around Stowe. BTW, this is not talking about the chance at some rogue flakes in the high terrain of CNE/NNE on Sunday under CAA...different system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Its actually more likely to get flakes in that system out in places like Garrett County MD and Snowshoe WV than in New England as the core of the upper level cold ends up out there. We don't have a chance unless the whole things was much further northeast and remained just as deep...an unlikely combination. Perhaps it could start as a few flakes on the picnic tables up around Stowe. BTW, this is not talking about the chance at some rogue flakes in the high terrain of CNE/NNE on Sunday under CAA...different system. Sunday looks damn chilly with strong winds, Sunday Funday softball not going to be much fun this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean says "Game On" for next week. Nearly complete model agreement. Even the crappy JMA and DGEX have the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Its actually more likely to get flakes in that system out in places like Garrett County MD and Snowshoe WV than in New England as the core of the upper level cold ends up out there. We don't have a chance unless the whole things was much further northeast and remained just as deep...an unlikely combination. Perhaps it could start as a few flakes on the picnic tables up around Stowe. BTW, this is not talking about the chance at some rogue flakes in the high terrain of CNE/NNE on Sunday under CAA...different system. I actually think Sunday has a better shot at flakes than any system early in the week...even at lower like 1,500ft elevations maybe some mangled flurries on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'm rooting for the GEM to win this one. Especially todays 12z run. Would be really cool to see a <990 mb system perform laps south of Long Island. Nevermind the fact that it pumps 10" of water into eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The GFS and Euro ensembles are super soakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 ecens mean has widespread 1-2"+ amounts outside of N VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Our clustering alogrithm for the ECMWF ensembles has the highest % of members for the Nor'Easter storm, but a close second portrays a system that is shifted a bit further south out to sea, with a 3rd solution well out to sea (lowest number of members though). https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 ecens mean has widespread 1-2"+ amounts outside of N VT. Yeah... probabilities of >1" of rain over 50% in many areas of SNE. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Euro Ens are most impressive for Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 how the f does Bermuda this small dot in the middle of nowhere get so lucky/unlucky, being in the flight path FTW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 1 inch of rain is a super soaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Best part is days and days of temps in the 40's next week. You can envision 3-4 days just like this past Saturdsy with cold HP to north and rain with NE winds and region wide highs 42-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 18z GFS I'm gunna guess it shows snow, or totally lost the storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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