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October Discussion


TalcottWx

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Call me crazy, but I'm gonna go ahead and say "not going to happen" to the euro solution later next week. 

 

 

That would be close to snow for interior...but looks a shade too warm aloft. Not by much though, lol.

 

 

The funnier part is how the whole hemispheric pattern gets reshuffled with that system a part of it.

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That would be close to snow for interior...but looks a shade too warm aloft. Not by much though, lol.

 

 

The funnier part is how the whole hemispheric pattern gets reshuffled with that system a part of it.

 

Days and days of cold NE winds and rain..lol.  There will be a trough...but I just don't buy days of rain.

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Looks like the pattern wants to amplify cold beyond d10?

 

 

I'm not convinced yet. It looks a bit crazy for how amplified the Euro tries to get around D10....we've seen it do that before.

 

It essentially phases the cutoff with the longwave trough going into Hudson Bay which starts to pull down much colder air into central and E Canada.

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I'm not convinced yet. It looks a bit crazy for how amplified the Euro tries to get around D10....we've seen it do that before.

 

It essentially phases the cutoff with the longwave trough going into Hudson Bay which starts to pull down much colder air into central and E Canada.

 Not to mention the + height changes over Alaska were astronomical compared to prior run, and other guidance...

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Been there done that on the frost and freeze, Could be flakes in the high elevations next week if the Euro would verify

Forget next week, maybe some accums coming on Sunday with decent looking upslope period.

BTV on board...

By Saturday night/Sunday...strong low level cold air advection develops and prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop blw 0c...with gusty northwest winds. This will result in snow levels quickly dropping to Summit level by 06z Sunday and between 1800 and 2400 feet by 12z Sunday...as 850 mb temperatures fall between -3c and -5c by 12z Sunday. Given favorable northwest 850 mb follow of 35 to 40 knots...leftover 850 to 500mb moisture in trough axis...and some 500 mb vorticity...expect mainly terrain driven precipitation...with valley rain and mountain snow showers on late Sat night into Sunday. I have mention high chance to low likely probability of precipitation for the favorable upslope regions of the northern dacks and central/northern greens mountains with chance probability of precipitation in the valleys. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will range from a trace to 0.25 or so in the mountains...with a dusting to several inches of snow likely by Sunday morning above 2000 feet.

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