Nate Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Nate, I'd wait a bit until the GFS and euro come out. My guess is Thursday especially before 2 could be dry or at least some sct showers down there. Wind may be another story. That's what I figured I'd do anyway, even the EURO QPF posted above doesn't show much rain down there before 2PM. In my head I'm picturing one of those muggy windy days with the clouds racing by overhead and the occasional "heavy drizzelish"/small drop showers with the main action occurring at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The coastal in the long range has been showing up last couple days. Gefs back it up too.....Euro has it too and it does offer the idea of first flakes in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Euro has it too and it does offer the idea of first flakes in some areas Yea, I'm tempering my expectations for my yard but certainly interior areas. Still in fantasy range obv but I want to see wrapped up spinners off the coast in the fall, and let it ride through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The ensembles look a bit warmer. I'd pump the brakes a tad on snow. But, nothing wrong with that look...classic look actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The ensembles look a bit warmer. I'd pump the brakes a tad on snow. But, nothing wrong with that look...classic look actually. I might think about snow if I was 3k in the Catskills on that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I might think about snow if I was 3k in the Catskills on that setup. LOL, well yeah maybe on the picnic tables at 3k or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Yea, I'm tempering my expectations for my yard but certainly interior areas. Still in fantasy range obv but I want to see wrapped up spinners off the coast in the fall, and let it ride through winter. It's a cold look for elevations in SNe near or over 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Touch warm out there. 74/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Our positive departures are going to grow pretty quickly in this warm night and mild day regime...low of 49F and a high of 71F so far. Normal is 58/36 at MVL, so a few nights of mins near 50F is going to hurt. Pretty much a lock for an above normal October in this part of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Going to be wild @MattNoyesNECN: I'm expecting localized flooding, possible damaging wind gusts, possible severe thunderstorms Thu/Thu Night. Details: http://t.co/ZvfEL9DsUJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 OK. Typical Sou'easter that will have a low topped squall line with carpet bomb warnings and several reports of rotted limbs down. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It's a cold look for elevations in SNe near or over 2k Congrats Gerylock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 OK. Typical Sou'easter that will have a low topped squall line with carpet bomb warnings and several reports of rotted limbs down. Yawn.baby steps, better than dewing the dew and talking about brown grass and dry leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 baby steps, better than dewing the dew and talking about brown grass and dry leaves Yep agree there..just sort of commenting on the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Ok, I'm going to weenie out a bit. I love the GFS and euro depiciton of that coastal. Classic +PNA s/w diving south from northern Canada. The stuff dreams are made out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Ok, I'm going to weenie out a bit. I love the GFS and euro depiciton of that coastal. Classic +PNA s/w diving south from northern Canada. The stuff dreams are made out of. You looking at next week? Tues/Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 You looking at next week? Tues/Wed? Yep. Sure it's October, but let your mind wander ahead a couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 OK. Typical Sou'easter that will have a low topped squall line with carpet bomb warnings and several reports of rotted limbs down. Yawn. It's a screamer for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It's refreshing to see. After a summer of horrific boredom, it's satisfying to talk synoptics and good old fashioned cyclogenesis....regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Ok, I'm going to weenie out a bit. I love the GFS and euro depiciton of that coastal. Classic +PNA s/w diving south from northern Canada. The stuff dreams are made out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Ok, I'm going to weenie out a bit. I love the GFS and euro depiciton of that coastal. Classic +PNA s/w diving south from northern Canada. The stuff dreams are made out of. Just need to fast-forward 6 weeks. Looks like late Oct could be pretty mild once we lose the trough that gets us next week. Mike Ventrice FTW on the 2nd half of Oct being mild in the CONUS. Might go into early November too looking at everything. We sort of did that last year except we had a 5-6 day cold shot in late Oct after most of the month torched...then a see-saw first 3 weeks of November until the hammer really went down close to T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Just need to fast-forward 6 weeks. Looks like late Oct could be pretty mild once we lose the trough that gets us next week. Mike Ventrice FTW on the 2nd half of Oct being mild in the CONUS. Might go into early November too looking at everything. We sort of did that last year except we had a 5-6 day cold shot in late Oct after most of the month torched...then a see-saw first 3 weeks of November until the hammer really went down close to T-day. I agree...although it seems like the last few days of model solutions have tried to cool a bit after the 25th or so until just before Halloween. The weeklies did a decent job showing the milder wx too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Yep agree there..just sort of commenting on the hype. No hype here..just chatting about the possibility for interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I agree...although it seems like the last few days of model solutions have tried to cool a bit after the 25th or so until just before Halloween. The weeklies did a decent job showing the milder wx too. Yeah, esp in our neck of the woods. That big storm (if it comes to fruition) in the long range could try and plant a trough over NE that takes a little time to erode. I think we'll then be in "wait mode" for the GOA trough to start retrograding a bit as the wavelengths get longer...if/when it does, that's when we'll probably have our first taste of potential winter. Obviously this is a long ways out, but it's something that happens in El Ninos fairly frequently...probably why we have more November snow events in Ninos vs Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Ok, I'm going to weenie out a bit. I love the GFS and euro depiciton of that coastal. Classic +PNA s/w diving south from northern Canada. The stuff dreams are made out of. It's completely gone on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It's completely gone on the 12z GFS LOL, well I guess the point is that we are finally getting active and it's just a pleasant reminder of what is to come. I always enjoy synoptics and cyclogenesis...so for me I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Man the colors today are spectacular,seen some fire red Maples that were stunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 LOL, well I guess the point is that we are finally getting active and it's just a pleasant reminder of what is to come. I always enjoy synoptics and cyclogenesis...so for me I'm looking forward to it. It's a goofy run, the energy responsible gets shunted south and then off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 What drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It's refreshing to see. After a summer of horrific boredom, it's satisfying to talk synoptics and good old fashioned cyclogenesis....regardless of the outcome.This one reminds me of one of those screamers we had back in the autumns of 92 and again 95 where we had quite extensive SSE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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