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October Discussion


TalcottWx

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classic pre-warm frontal underestimation by the NAM wrt to ceiling RH levels... Just looked at that last several cycles of the FRH grids and it was partly sunny the whole time, and then finally upon the 12z run this morning it's over 70% ... That's not guidance, sorry -- that's miss-guidance, period. 

 

It's cloud and annoying for a day off.  Personal bust on my part ... I was under the impression there would be 20 minute sun intervals but this is rim to rim pan gray cool trapping, and it's kind of annoying, too, because I have a personal challenge not to turn on the heat until Nov 1.    

 

If you guys are NGRID users, they're making up lies and excuses so they can jack rates 20 to 30% at the meter.  My house is all electric too, so despite its smallish size, I'm going to be like 5 Ben Franklyns during DJF.  It's enough to want to build a home off grid and then send NGRID a letter that stuffs their greed down their throat.  But I digress...  

 

Anyway, with days shortened and shortening, you can't "wait" really ... By mid afternoon the angles are lowering to the point of irrelevant should it clear then.  

 

October being cocktober I guess...

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classic pre-warm frontal underestimation by the NAM wrt to ceiling RH levels... Just looked at that last several cycles of the FRH grids and it was partly sunny the whole time, and then finally upon the 12z run this morning it's over 70% ... That's not guidance, sorry -- that's miss-guidance, period. 

 

It's cloud and annoying for a day off.  Personal bust on my part ... I was under the impression there would be 20 minute sun intervals but this is rim to rim pan gray cool trapping, and it's kind of annoying, too, because I have a personal challenge not to turn on the heat until Nov 1.    

 

If you guys are NGRID users, they're making up lies and excuses so they can jack rates 20 to 30% at the meter.  My house is all electric too, so despite its smallish size, I'm going to be like 5 Ben Franklyns during DJF.  It's enough to want to build a home off grid and then send NGRID a letter that stuffs their greed down their throat.  But I digress...  

 

Anyway, with days shortened and shortening, you can't "wait" really ... By mid afternoon the angles are lowering to the point of irrelevant should it clear then.  

 

October being cocktober I guess...

When it's 75-80 Tues-Thurs with high dews..open the windows and warm the cockles

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T-Bone!

THURSDAY SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS THE T-BONE OCCLUSION ZIPS OVER S NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. PIVOTING SE-FLOW DRAWS COOL AIR FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH...COLLIDING WITH THE WCB TO PERHAPS YIELD MARINE STRATUS /MORE SO AS IT APPEARS THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION LINGERS/. CONTINUED WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH KEEPING MID-60 DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ABOVE THE ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE OF THE WCB LIKELY TO YIELD SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.

A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS PUTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TIMEFRAME FOR WHICH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. S-FLOW /H925-85 WINDS NEAR 50 MPH/ ADVECTS DEEP-MOISTURE N WITH PWATS NEARLY 2-INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD. ATTENDANT DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD YIELD A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ALSO A HIGH SHEAR LOW INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THOUGH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE EVENTS EARLIER THIS MONTH AND DURING LATE-SEPTEMBER...A MORE STABLE ONSHORE ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER AIR FROM OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LIMITS THE THREAT. GREATER CONFIDENCE WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT PER PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO CATEGORICAL AND CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM WORDING.

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