earthlight Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I didn't see that much CAPE on the Euro - but it's hard to read on the wxbell maps anyway. If nothing else the warm sector looked pretty expansive with the triple point fairly far northwest. My concern with these setups always stems from crap-vection ahead of the main forcing and juxtaposition of instability/kinematics....sometimes the environment just becomes too supportive of precipitation development especially when you have little perturbations running out ahead of the main height falls. That'd be my main concern because models usually won't pick up on the effects of those features and the mitigating effect on instability thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 That had to be a classic 0-3KM CAPE classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 It's probably going to be one of those deals with an MCV like feature to look for. Otherwise, I don't think cells zipping along at 45 kts will do much. The classic setups had that. Revere...etc. Edit: Not necessarily a MCV, but a cluster of shwrs/tstms along the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 That had to be a classic 0-3KM CAPE classic. Yeah I'm sure. Good CAPE in 0-3km and 40 knots of 0-1km shear is all you need to drop a sig tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 18z NAM sounding for HFD looks cleaner with less of a veer-back setup and slightly stronger wind fields: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Ugh @MJVentrice: European torch fest in 6-10 day.. cut off low pressure system problems possible though http://t.co/gys8eZ8Dcm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Ugh @MJVentrice: European torch fest in 6-10 day.. cut off low pressure system problems possible though http://t.co/gys8eZ8Dcm His image looks to be exactly what we want for October wrt Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 His image looks to be exactly what we want for October wrt Aleutians.love me some Oct torch fests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 When was the last time we had a spin up at 3 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 When was the last time we had a spin up at 3 am? In Connecticut the only thing I can think of is July of '96 lol. Obviously climo says no way... but the model guidance is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 When was the last time we had a spin up at 3 am?Before Oct 2011, when was the last time we saw 12-15 inches of wet snow on fully foliated trees in the CTRV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 When was the last time Kevin's thermometer was accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 When was the last time Kevin's thermometer was accurate?When was the last time you gave us an accurate rainfall or snowfall measurement rather than guesstimating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Before Oct 2011, when was the last time we saw 12-15 inches of wet snow on fully foliated trees in the CTRV?so 10-12 tors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 so 10-12 tors?I think the main threat is widespread wind damage in a pretty intense squall line.. With brief spinners possible embedded in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I think the main threat is widespread wind damage in a pretty intense squall line.. With brief spinners possible embedded in linedefine widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 When was the last time we had a spin up at 3 am?If I'm estimating the graphic correctly, only ~6% of tornadoes in the area from 1962-2011 occurred between 06-12z. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/grids/066132/map.gif Even mid-late morning tornadoes are fairly rare, but July 1st of last year had one at 9:17 a.m. in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 When was the last time you gave us an accurate rainfall or snowfall measurement rather than guesstimating? Snowfall is accurate. Who cares about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 define widespreadTrees down in multiple towns and power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 It will be quite breezy regardless of convection in the warm sector. Even showers will transport down stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Trees down in multiple towns and power outages Localized widespread damage then? I think of widespread as like most of SNE will see something. But you seem to be saying widespread but within like 4-6 counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Localized widespread damage then? I think of widespread as like most of SNE will see something. But you seem to be saying widespread but within like 4-6 counties.widespread to me would mean 50-100 real damage reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I was just thinking of something with regards to how expansive the warm sector is. Typically we see cases where warm fronts can have trouble blowing too far northward during the spring/fall months, though typically I think spring has more issues. However, given we are dealing with an intensifying surface low with increasing LLJ you have to wonder if this favors the warm front progressing further northward than what we normally may see. The system won't be occluding as it approaches which is something that leads to a halt of the northward progression of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 GFS does not want to drop yet its first flakes days 19th-21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Is this mostly a CT RI SE Mass type of delio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 GFS does not want to drop yet its first flakes days 19th-21st Good ol' 925mb temps are like +3 though for the fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 nice Gulf cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 21z sref has trended more unstable for Wednesday early am. Definitely a spinner risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 NAM is really impressive too. Wow. Someone should make a thread for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 NAM is really impressive too. Wow. Someone should make a thread for the event. heh...2000j sbcape tickling Narragansett Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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