CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Can anyone guess If there would be any lightning with the convection or just gusty winds and thunder like quite a few fall storms? Equilibrium level is high enough so thunder definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Very interesting with regards to those steeper lapse rates. Heading home from class now so can look more when I get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Just looked at the 12z nam and it looked less impressive to me then 6z unless im missing something Still looks good but seems like it backed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 NAM is still good for Wed morning, esp south. Wind profiled are a bit weird with winds veering then backing, and then veering again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Always great to see a maturing sfc low as it passes by to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 58 at noon. Not bad fall weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 NAM is still good for Wed morning, esp south. Wind profiled are a bit weird with winds veering then backing, and then veering again.I noticed this too, the result is some rather messy hodographs, despite otherwise strong wind fields/shear. The RGEM isn't all that much different though. Have to imagine that wind this wind support, it won't take much instability for some fun regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Quincy where'd you get the rgem sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Not sure I would go there in the true spirit of an EML, but models do show decent lapse rates aloft advecting over the region early Wed. i.e. a pocket of decent lapse rates, rather than a mixed layer advecting off the western high terrain. The NAM is quite odd. It has a very steep area of lapse rates... nearly dry adiabatic from 850-650mb. Area of relatively steep lapse rates looks to move in from the SW but yeah I don't think I would classify that as a true EML either. I remember a few summers ago we saw a similar feature where it looked like an EML but it was situated lower in the troposphere than usual...we had a debate about whether it was an EML or not and Ekster said it was not a true EML. It's interesting though b/c looking at 850mb RH values, they seem fairly juicy SW of us...I would have guessed drier given where the lapse rates seem to be working in from, however, there is an area of dry air which works in from the Atlantic at 850mb. Would like to do an 850-600mb mean RH field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 One thing for certain is we are going to have to develop adequate enough instability in order to have updrafts strong enough not to get ripped apart by the shear. High shear is great but you don't want it too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Click on this link. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=00〈=en Then click on skew t. You then have to choose USA. I can't believe I never knew this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Click on this link. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=00〈=en Then click on skew t. You then have to choose USA. I can't believe I never knew this. They also have a Quebec window for the graphical output that's convenient for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Click on this link. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=00〈=en Then click on skew t. You then have to choose USA. I can't believe I never knew this. That is AWESOME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The latest NAM-based analogs for Wednesday morning are interesting to say the least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I would like to buy stock in the 12z 4-km NAM run for Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Most of the instability on the 12z GFS remains confined to I-95, like the 6z run. Still, nice >50kt LLJ. The GFS is also 3mb deeper with the surface low swinging to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 NAM is still good for Wed morning, esp south. Wind profiled are a bit weird with winds veering then backing, and then veering again. Uh oh, the Midwest weenies don't like that one bit. But that's typically for widespread tornado outbreaks. If enough turning in concentrated in the low levels around here, it would still be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Uh oh, the Midwest weenies don't like that one bit. But that's typically for widespread tornado outbreaks. If enough turning in concentrated in the low levels around here, it would still be a concern. It's pretty unstable in the lower levels so I wouldn't think it matters too much if the NAM were to be correct...but just noting the interesting profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The NAM is impressive for tomorrow morning as well... not just Wednesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The NAM is impressive for tomorrow morning as well... not just Wednesday AM. For gusty winds/or iso Tor's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 For gusty winds/or iso Tor's? Both. I doubt we get much tomorrow though... it's Wednesday morning that's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Euro looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Euro looks pretty impressive. Does faster timing help us or hurt us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Euro looks pretty impressive.No kidding. Looks like a 55-60kt LLJ crosses over CT with 1000-1500 SBCAPE for much of the area. Even some subtly backed winds to the SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 No kidding. Looks like a 55-60kt LLJ crosses over CT with 1000-1500 SBCAPE for much of the area. Even some subtly backed winds to the SSE. I didn't see that much CAPE on the Euro - but it's hard to read on the wxbell maps anyway. If nothing else the warm sector looked pretty expansive with the triple point fairly far northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Does faster timing help us or hurt us? I don't think timing really matters. Only thing I think timing could affect is how large the warm sector is. Faster timing could mean a less expansive warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Hopefully this comes undone as we move into tomorrow. I wouldn't want this to ruin the "seasons behaving like seasons" mentality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I didn't see that much CAPE on the Euro - but it's hard to read on the wxbell maps anyway. If nothing else the warm sector looked pretty expansive with the triple point fairly far northwest. Yeah that was a typo, looking at it again I meant 500-1,000. The interesting thing is that 10/3/79 was a relatively low instability setup too. (Although a surface low spun right up the valley) 18z estimated about 1,000 J/kg SBCAPE. Meaning at the time of the tornado, it couldn't have been much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah that was a typo, looking at it again I meant 500-1,000. The interesting thing is that 10/3/79 was a relatively low instability setup too. (Although a surface low spun right up the valley) 18z estimated about 1,000 J/kg SBCAPE. Meaning at the time of the tornado, it couldn't have been much higher. It wouldn't surprise me if Cape values shot up to around 1500 locally...from reports I've heard the sun came out fairly strong like an hour before the tornado so the temps probably jumped several degrees and in an environment like that capes would boost quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah that was a typo, looking at it again I meant 500-1,000. The interesting thing is that 10/3/79 was a relatively low instability setup too. (Although a surface low spun right up the valley) 18z estimated about 1,000 J/kg SBCAPE. Meaning at the time of the tornado, it couldn't have been much higher. Yeah... the low level shear was off the charts. There's a couple of interesting journal articles about the storm and how funky the near storm environment was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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