Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 My very clear memory was a mids OKX afd that totally tossed all model solutions the day of, day shift came in and totally rewrote it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 1:53 AM, ORH_wxman said: Thursday night I think you were already pretty high on potential...at least for the hills around the area...but were still pondering whether HFD on the valley floor was going to get smoked or not.I was very surprised how many folks refused to budge off of long standing beliefs despite overwhelming model and real time obs. I have found over the years that the best and brightest can think out of the book and understand how to accept the unthinkable can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 1:56 AM, Ginxy said: I was very surprised how many folks refused to budge off of long standing beliefs despite overwhelming model and real time obs. I have found over the years that the best and brightest can think out of the book and understand how to accept the unthinkable can happen. Jeff Tongue from OKX gave a presentation on the storm at the 2012 Tri-State weather conference and in it he compared the models predicted dew point depressions versus what actually happened. It was astounding, they were off by like 8-10F IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The euro nailed it. It had like -5C down to PYM I think, at 850. I don't care if it's July, that's snow in the interior. By Thursday the features were aligning. Go big or go home. The best were some of the excuses why it may have trouble sticking. As many of us have said before, moderate or heavy snow will stick even amid a nuclear war going on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 2:48 AM, CoastalWx said: The euro nailed it. It had like -5C down to PYM I think, at 850. I don't care if it's July, that's snow in the interior. By Thursday the features were aligning. Go big or go home. The best were some of the excuses why it may have trouble sticking. As many of us have said before, moderate or heavy snow will stick even amid a nuclear war going on, Hmmm, maybe he compared what OKX predicted (with their gridded forecasts I think?) versus what actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 2:56 AM, H2Otown_WX said: Hmmm, maybe he compared what OKX predicted (with their gridded forecasts I think?) versus what actually happened. Oh I wasn't even talking about that lol. Just noting the euro and ensembles nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 12:06 AM, CT Rain said: Still probably the most exciting storm I've been in. Weird one for me. I was off for a few days, then came in the day before on long term. So I never actually had a piece of the storm to forecast. I just remember wearing shorts on the course the week before, and then just 'bang' season over. Maybe that's why we were rewarded with the once in a lifetime March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 1:28 AM, ORH_wxman said: I give kudos to Ryan in the October 2011 storm...I remember several of us in here were stunned by Friday night that the TV mets were still really gunshy on the snow potiential. But he was pretty much gung ho from 60 hours in. The only TV met in the area that was getting the word out that early. It was hard to believe what was being shown on the models given how overwhelmingly strong climo is against that type of storm in late October, but at some point, you had to ditch climo. I remember hearing arguments from mets that climo favored much lower totals....which would have been fine 4-5 days out....but this was like 24-36 hours out. I mean the Euro was showing like -5C at 925mb. It's not going to rain or be a sloppy mix on those profiles...even to the valley floor. You mean like the ground is too warm to stick argument? I think we were consistently 4-6" behind reality at CON for the entire event. Even as the snow was coming to an end we never had more than 14" in our forecast (while 22" sit on the ground). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 8:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Man I've been en fuego the last week or so. We knew yesterday when op runs started locking arms and doe ci doeing each other this cold shot/early winter storm threat had some legs. All about the ops .. Bout the ops.. Now Ensembles did anyone see 10+" of rain the last 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 10:15 AM, SJonesWX said: did anyone see 10+" of rain the last 3 days? The highest reports I saw were 7-8 inches in a few select spots..so no Steven Jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 10:32 AM, Damage In Tolland said: The highest reports I saw were 7-8 inches in a few select spots..so no Steven Jones good call on the winds though. i am a few miles inland from BOS and while there were some winds, it wasn't anything crazy. big difference between here and the coast. btw, aside from hand picking, what is the best way to get acorns out of the yard? i really don't want to rake them because it is a PITA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 10:39 AM, SJonesWX said: good call on the winds though. i am a few miles inland from BOS and while there were some winds, it wasn't anything crazy. big difference between here and the coast. btw, aside from hand picking, what is the best way to get acorns out of the yard? i really don't want to rake them because it is a PITA I've heard the Garden Weasel thing actually works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 10:39 AM, SJonesWX said: btw, aside from hand picking, what is the best way to get acorns out of the yard? i really don't want to rake them because it is a PITA A Stihl 600 magnum or Echo 700. The best back pack blower you can get and they will get them all into a nice pile for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Yikes what an awful pattern being depicted on the ensembles in the 11-15 day. Memories of 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 10:52 AM, dan123 said: Yikes what an awful pattern being depicted on the ensembles in the 11-15 day. Memories of 2011-12where do you live dan123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 11:46 AM, Ginxy said: where do you live dan123 On 10/24/2014 at 11:46 AM, Ginxy said: where do you live dan123 New london Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 11:50 AM, dan123 said: New london put that in your profile-easier for when obs start during storms this winter to see where everyone's posting from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 11:50 AM, dan123 said: New londonNice, welcome aboard, on the hill or by downtown?, great wind spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 11:56 AM, Ginxy said: Nice, welcome aboard, on the hill or by downtown?, great wind spots Thanks! Downtown. I've been lurking around these forums for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 10:52 AM, dan123 said: Yikes what an awful pattern being depicted on the ensembles in the 11-15 day. Memories of 2011-12 in what sense is that? i hope you have seen Wills November winter -AO pattern correlation maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 12:02 PM, Ginxy said: in what sense is that? i hope you have seen Wills November winter -AO pattern correlation maps?I was talking about how the ensembles show an Alaska trough (not GOA trough) and I hear that's bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 But I guess it's better to get it now than in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 12:14 PM, dan123 said: I was talking about how the ensembles show an Alaska trough (not GOA trough) and I hear that's bad unless that is a monster one eyed Pig PV that is semi permanent I wouldn't assume anything. Nov is a transient month, it snows a lot in Alaska usually due to troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 12:14 PM, dan123 said: I was talking about how the ensembles show an Alaska trough (not GOA trough) and I hear that's bad On Sale now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Certainly a mild look in the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You can wear that t-shirt the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 12:14 PM, dan123 said: I was talking about how the ensembles show an Alaska trough (not GOA trough) and I hear that's bad The upcoming pattern has absolutely nothing to do with the upcoming winter. Some of our best usually flipped end of nov into early dec, I wouldn't worry at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 1:35 PM, CoastalWx said: You can wear that t-shirt the first half of November. That certainly is a mild look, it's going to be hard to completely reverse those SSTs in the NE pacific but if it persists long enough it certainly can do damage. Still no need to hit the panic button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 On 10/24/2014 at 1:35 PM, CoastalWx said: You can wear that t-shirt the first half of November. Any signs that that ugly thing goes away after mid-november? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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