CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 On 10/22/2014 at 8:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: He said they had been cooling each run.. Now he says today s torched Yes the models have been waffling and now they warmed. You guys are so uptight. At least your ridging near AK is still around. Big SW US cutoff going to screw around with the progs. Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Euro ens aren't that warm to start November. Pretty close to normal or maybe mildly above as the plains torch tries but muted with that configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 On 10/22/2014 at 9:16 PM, weathafella said: Euro ens aren't that warm to start November. Pretty close to normal or maybe mildly above as the plains torch tries but muted with that configuration. Ruined it. It definitely warmed, but it's no torch verbatim. However Kevin's ideal stretch of 40s and 20s aren't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 So now lie about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 On 10/22/2014 at 9:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So now lie about it? No lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 6z GFS says Get the shovels out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Plenty of time for a se shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 11:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: 6z GFS says Get the shovels out? ...oh, and before I forget, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 No doubt this shifts SE over the next several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 So when does Sat data get back in models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 torchy tuesday on all the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 3:40 PM, Ginxy said: So when does Sat data get back in models? I read this morning they are back. I will see if I can find the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 12z GFS would be a logan11, PF special first weekend of November lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Is there any word on the outage at NCEP? Usual confidence intervals additionally eroded until that gets resolved... of course. But notwithstanding, yeah ... there is a bit of signal here that we confront additional storminess in the D6-9 range. The teleconnectors are also going to be impacted by data sparsity issues, ...if the outage is proven to effect ... so taken for what it is worth, there is a rather clear Archembault PNA signal here; which is to say, the strong index reversal from negative into positive. This is showing up more obviously at CDC than CPC. The Diagnostic folk calculate their PNA derivatives based upon lower troposphere mass flux (wind anomalies); whereas contrasting, the CPC calculates their using mid troposphere geopotential height anomalies. It's hard to say which is more useful. There may even be some seasonal consideration there. I've always hypothesized that the winter, with it's stronger gradients and more "lock-and-sync" R-wave constructs around the hemisphere would argue for the CPC's method; where as in the summer, when short wave lengths and gradients construct a more nebular flow regime in general, perhaps lower fluxes may be more telling... I dunno, but the present signal (again, notwithstanding bad inputs into the grids...) is clearer at CDC then CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 12z GFS showing a chilly beginning to NOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 7:01 PM, NorEastermass128 said: 12z GFS showing a chilly beginning to NOV. So is Euro for about the 7th run in a row.. Brings in an arctic front on Helloween eve..flakes would be in the air for some folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 7:01 PM, NorEastermass128 said: 12z GFS showing a chilly beginning to NOV. Euro on board, we don't toss, Phil tweeted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Ens should finally start picking up on this bitter blast this afternoon or tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 12z Euro latching on to the coastal idea for next weekend as the GFS has had it for a few runs now, Its digging the trough further SE this run as its less progressive, Could make it interesting next weekend if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Remember wieners..Nino's always bring an early snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 7:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So is Euro for about the 7th run in a row.. Brings in an arctic front on Helloween eve..flakes would be in the air for some folks Euro op d10 is damned cold. I'm sure it's overdone but the signal for a little chilly period is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This would be all bass .. No treble @ericfisher: Just a *possibility* - but this has been a fairly steady theme in models. Major cold shot 10/31-11/2 in the east. http://t.co/d0pPUiFNKp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Also, did you see that -20C air starting to spill down on the euro? First half of November would be pretty cold of any of this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 7:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Remember wieners..Nino's always bring an early snow event Tell that to 2006, 1994, 1982, 1977, and 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Scooter and Meteotrade on board @WSI_Energy: Med-Range: Latest European op dropping the hammer down across the Plains and Midwest. Another Nor'Easter? TBS http://t.co/wYchnw88yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 All about that op bout that op....no ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Models have at least been advertising this cold shot clipping into New England for next weekend, but the recent GFS op runs and now the Euro Op are showing it as a more widespread central/eastern cold plunge (albeit likely overdone on today's run) Check out these Euro changes from prior run. No diff in New England, but elsewhere... Better prospects for a coastal now too obviously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 7:15 PM, CoastalWx said: All about that op bout that op....no ensembles.They should pick up on this later today or tomorrow hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I have a question for you God/Creator/astronauts/aliens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 On 10/23/2014 at 7:15 PM, CoastalWx said: All about that op bout that op....no ensembles. Only ignore the OP when it shows a solution you don't like...the formula for WOTY isn't as hard as experts would have you believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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