RECORD WARM NORTHERN PACIFIC -- AGW driven right?

[DTWXRISK]

 whats really interesting  about this  is the story  was / is being carried by a  "PRO AGW"  web site  CLIMATE CENTRAL. 

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/west-coast-warming-natural-variability-18067

 

 

What’s been heating up the waters? It’s tempting to blame global warming. Sea-surface and nearby coastal air temperatures in the Pacific Northwest have warmed by 1°F or 2°F since 1900. This September, the waters have been as much as 5°F above average. But a study published Monday by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, which is a project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Washington, points the climatological finger for most of the change at a different culprit.

 

Natural changes in winds, air pressures and ocean currents were found to be responsible for more than 80 percent of the observed warming during the 112 years studied. The findings could help scientists refine projections for climate change’s impacts in Western states vulnerable to droughts, flooding and vicious wildfires.

 

“The appearance of a century-long warming trend immediately implies some human impact,” Johnstone said. “This research suggests that there could be other causes of warming or even cooling trends over a certain time period.”

[DTWXRISK]

  ACTUAL STUDY ....   http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/09/16/1318371111

[FPizz]

Very interesting read thanks.

[StudentOfClimatology]

That paper actually has nothing to do with 2014, if I'm reading it correctly.

That said, Re: 2014 N-PAC SSTs, I reached a similar conclusion a few months ago, using data from CERES, WINDSAT, and NOAA ESRL. I don't want to start that whole thing back up again, but the debate is several pages back in the 2014 Global Temp thread if you're interested in reading it.

[csnavywx]

Yep, only goes through 2012.

 

Seriously, we need some more red meat on the physics of the PDO. It's only in the last 100-150 years that we've seen a semi-steady oscillation. It was MUCH more irregular before that (according to the proxies we have), indicating some significant sensitivity to atmospheric circulation changes and small changes in forcing or perhaps some threshold behavior (300 year -PDO phase from 1000-1300 anybody?).

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yep, only goes through 2012.

Seriously, we need some more red meat on the physics of the PDO. It's only in the last 100-150 years that we've seen a semi-steady oscillation. It was MUCH more irregular before that (according to the proxies we have), indicating some significant sensitivity to atmospheric circulation changes and small changes in forcing or perhaps some threshold behavior (300 year -PDO phase from 1000-1300 anybody?).

Agreed 100%. The PDO correlates pretty well to the antecedent AAM/ENSO on a multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale, so I guess the question is what drives long term ENSO variability? The ENSO cycle was very diluted during the early Holocene and has become progressively more amplified over the last 5000yrs...so orbital forcing may explain the longer term trend(s) but I think the timescale there is too long.

That 300yr -PDO event balso coincides with a mega-drought in the North American SW.