jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png The Euro has been consistent with keeping the SER by Cuba,now the GFS is showing the same thing,but both of the esms show it way out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro got a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Euro gives a few inches of snow to almost all of Tennessee. This is for days7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The models have been pretty consistent in putting down a few inches in the 14-18th time frame. I hope it comes to pass but the cold is almost assuredly coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 As I reviewed weather forecast charts over the past few days, my memory was jogged back to a time when incessant cold intrusions, massive winter storms, and extensive blocking signatures were the rule and not the exception. I am talking about the late 1970s, a magical time in my life when forecasting the weather was far more difficult than what is the case today. However, the predictions were more exciting not just because of difficulty (computer modeling was in its infancy, with only the Barotropic, LFM, and AVN series to choose from), but also because if you liked the challenges and the eventual extreme outcome, you got to view history in the making. All of this nostalgia has a point, you see. It has been a long while since I saw nearly all of the numerical models set up a triple or quadruple blocking signature with an active southern branch jet stream. Even more bizarre is the notion is that this configuration could last for two weeks or more! You see, if you review even the extreme cold seasons of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the radical cAk plunges were quite progressive. Colder monthly averages were achieved by multiple delivery of colder values, not by a routine day-after-day cold spells. This "long lived chill" is the scenario we may be facing for much of the rest of November, IF the equations verify! There seems to be some agreement also on the idea of yet another storm taking shape in southern Texas around November 20. The most probable track for this system is probably a "Miller A" type along the Gulf Coast and then running up along the Eastern Seaboard. If we do maintain a mild West vs. cold Central and East alignment, the snowpack will drop as far south as the Ozark Plateau, Tennessee Valley, and possibly just to the right of the Appalachian Mountains (NC to ME). Remember that the more snow we get farther south only favors a longer stay of cold air and more of a "duration winter". I am still sticking with the idea that after a volatile late November and December (leaning cold but still capable of some warmer "burps" east of the High Plains), that we settle into a rather painful stormy and bitterly cold period from January through much of March. So far the analog comparisons have been correct with respect to the coldest values this month being mainly between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. Speaking of analogs, I am toying with the idea of adding 1976-77 and 1957-1958 to the roster of comparative winters. The ferocious 1976 set-up had help from a typhoon injection (just like Nuri), while the fall of 1957 saw a very warm SST anomaly along the entire eastern shoreline of the Pacific Ocean. The former period had a lasting and strong national warm-up starting in mid-February, while the latter was notorous for its balmy December followed by a brutal JFM time frame. The 500MB and temperature deviation charts for the DJFM realm are included above, using the additional analogs. "Mild West, Cold, Stormy Central And East" may be ringing in your brain this winter. Along with high energy and grocery bills, too.Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 12z Euro looks a little interesting for the weekend. I am just eyeballing the PSU e-wall site. I would take that look most days. I still say climo wins the day. Just too early for snow in the Valley...but still a man can hope can't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 If the pattern is right, climo doesn't matter that much this time of year. That's why we have had major snow storms in November, March, and even April. We even saw a major snow event two weeks ago in South Carolina because the pattern was right. That said, who knows if the pattern will be right, at the best of times that's often tough here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Interesting to say the least when you compare the Parallel to the the GFS on the 18z Edit:On my text,just going to throw these two out on the regular GFS It shows mem with .00 qpf's BNA .01 QPFS This is for the system this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 If the pattern is right, climo doesn't matter that much this time of year. That's why we have had major snow storms in November, March, and even April. We even saw a major snow event two weeks ago in South Carolina because the pattern was right. That said, who knows if the pattern will be right, at the best of times that's often tough here. This weekend, from what I can tell, looks to be the type of storm you plateau folks will do decent with. Just enough elevation to overcome the marginal conditions that will likely keep the valley in a cold rain or mix. I hope you cash in bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Interesting to say the least when you compare the Parallel to the the GFS on the 18z ecmwf ens_z500a_namer_11.png 1024×622 .png gfsp_asnow_namer_28.png 1024×622 .png Edit:On my text,just going to throw these two out on the regular GFS It shows mem with .00 qpf's BNA .01 QPFS This is for the system this weekend Another comparison,quite a bit of difference http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111018/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_28.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111018/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 00z GFS dropped a nice one across most of the state, basically 1-5 inches along all but the southern border areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Para GFS even better, John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 In Orlando on business, but couldn't help but post this from Larry Cosgrove, off Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Crossville on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That would be an incredible snow map for the middle of November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I know the para is in beta, but it seems to be bonkers like the old GFS with extreme amounts. I hope it's correct and not wonky at all. Was it available for the Halloween snow event and if so, what did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Crossville on the GFS. .54 qpfs all sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Interesting to say the least when you compare the Parallel to the the GFS on the 18z ecmwf ens_z500a_namer_11.png 1024×622 .png gfsp_asnow_namer_28.png 1024×622 .png Edit:On my text,just going to throw these two out on the regular GFS It shows mem with .00 qpf's BNA .01 QPFS This is for the system this weekend There's even more support for the 00z GFS models. It's too far out to really tell, but I do remember some people saying the Euro supported something at that timeframe a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 00z GFS dropped a nice one across most of the state, basically 1-5 inches along all but the southern border areas. Guess it's time to come out of hibernation then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wish we could see the boundaries on the GFSP,obviously it's much colder to get that amount of sn,this woudn't support that snow map one bit,not for BNA anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Can't help but think this is going to be rain for the valley areas south of 40. Maybe a bit of snow at the tail end. Need to see cold HP just a little further south to keep warm air from getting trapped in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I know the para is in beta, but it seems to be bonkers like the old GFS with extreme amounts. I hope it's correct and not wonky at all. Was it available for the Halloween snow event and if so, what did it show? Yes it was available...it actually did fairly well. Better than the old GFS. Its also been pretty consistent with this weekends system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Spag plots look alot better than yesterday.GFS today looked interesting for the system towards next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The para GFS has given me accumulation on 12 of it's last 14 runs, and it's actually gotten heavier the closer we get to the event. You can see the higher resolution locally, as it drops a small spot of the heaviest snow where the local mountains are 3500 feet or so in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Coming in later now on tonight's run and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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