jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 The latest from Cosgrove is even more interesting.ImageUploadedByTapatalk1415409001.948771.jpgImageUploadedByTapatalk1415409017.495263.jpgImageUploadedByTapatalk1415409027.695303.jpgImageUploadedByTapatalk1415409038.561906.jpg Looking up,for us in the W/TN to M/TN we have been waiting for this for four year.Of course for us this has a recipe for a warm nose this is why in our area to the west parts of the Valley you want to see cold already set in unlike the orographic parts of the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I have a buddy north of Nashville that has been using the term snow dome for three years, long before Nashville media started using it last year. I told him if the dome doesn't get busted this year, he might want to consider moving if he wants to see snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I have a buddy north of Nashville that has been using the term snow dome for three years, long before Nashville media started using it last year. I told him if the dome doesn't get busted this year, he might want to consider moving if he wants to see snow....... Davidson and Williamson county is the snow dome,anything between i-40 AND hwy 64 have been shut out.Shoot Lawrence county and around that area last year got around a ft of snow or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 TNW CHECK YOUR BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/07/alaska_storm_in_bering_sea_a_post_tropical_cyclone_is_about_to_grow_to_the.html Posting this here because this effects us down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 It looks like the cold coming is all bit a lock. If we can turn the flow from the WSW it's a pretty good bet there will be an overrunning threat to follow for someone from TN to Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Thats 6-8 " calculated,think it could be even better but we will see for Mid Tn on the 17-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The 00z GFS has snowfall of 2+ inches for the entire state in the 6-10 day time frame, which coincides with the very much below normal temp regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png Model Mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png Yeah to me the GFS looks better than the Euro does. The Euro has the cold stretched from West to East and kind of looks odd with the SE ridge being pumped up. You guys may do better than us for cold and snow depending on were the trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah to me the GFS looks better than the Euro does. The Euro has the cold stretched from West to East and kind of looks odd with the SE ridge being pumped up. You guys may do better than us for cold and snow depending on were the trough sets up. I agree,it's own Esm. has the SER way out in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Not sure, but I think this may have become the strongest storm in record for this area. If not, it's crazy low and more than impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 With ENSO finally getting its act together, does anyone know the typical lag time before the southern stream comes alive? (1.5-2 months?) I am thinking sometime in January, but hoping a little sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 With ENSO finally getting its act together, does anyone know the typical lag time before the southern stream comes alive? (1.5-2 months?) I am thinking sometime in January, but hoping a little sooner than that. You started seeing hints of it coming alive a few weeks ago actually. This past week we saw Texas get clobbered with several inches of rain that the subtropical jet brought EPAC tropical moisture with it. Here's the GFS initialization from this morning. See the green and yellow colors from west of the Baja Peninsula across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico? That's a stronger piece of the subtropical jet over in our neck of the woods. You can see the polar jet to the north of it across the States. So it's been active the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Cold anyone?Thank God this is still fantasy range,i like cold but its to early for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1415452766.277894.jpg Not sure, but I think this may have become the strongest storm in record for this area. If not, it's crazy low and more than impressive! What a storm !! https://twitter.com/hashtag/Nuri?src=hash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 the look on the 12z GFS at hr180 has my mouth watering... that is a classic southern snowstorm taking shape right there. That looks an awful lot like the Jan, 2010 storm. Crazy to even see that modeled in mid November, let alone any time of there year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 the look on the 12z GFS at hr180 has my mouth watering... that is a classic southern snowstorm taking shape right there. That looks an awful lot like the Jan, 2010 storm. Crazy to even see that modeled in mid November, let alone any time of there year. Yeah I was going to say I just looked at 12z GFS and was leading to something very big! It is the best look I've seen from models for this time period. Hopefully it can stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I think November just argues against anything big...The older I get the more climo seems to win the day. That said, it did indeed snow in Columbia last week. My parents always talk about a snow in the late 60s that happened around Thanksgiving. Right now, I am cautiously optimistic. If it was Jan...I would say full steam ahead. More things have to happen for snow in November. Mtns, yes. Valleys, going to have to see it to believe it. Still, we are really blessed to be talking about snowstorms this early in the season. Two years ago, we had nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I think November just argues against anything big...The older I get the more climo seems to win the day. That said, it did indeed snow in Columbia last week. My parents always talk about a snow in the late 60s that happened around Thanksgiving. Right now, I am cautiously optimistic. If it was Jan...I would say full steam ahead. More things have to happen for snow in November. Mtns, yes. Valleys, going to have to see it to believe it. Still, we are really blessed to be talking about snowstorms this early in the season. Two years ago, we had nothing to track. I'm just impressed by the magnitude of the cold which is being shown for Nov.I agree climo you'd rather see this in Jan.,but it's rare we track systems this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z Euro has a Lakes Cutter during this time frame looking at these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Euro really amps up that storm and cuts it. Let's see what the ensembles have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z Euro has a Lakes Cutter during this time frame looking at these maps. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1415473579.152371.jpg ImageUploadedByTapatalk1415473598.290132.jpg Euro moved the SER out into the Atlantic, unlike last nights run where for some reason placed it extending into the GOM.We now see the 850 climo almost 16-20 below norms in the NE Valley, a drastic improvement over all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 European is a stormy pattern to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 European is a stormy pattern to say the least. Yeah it does,especially your area,with shear 60-65 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Just some absolutely incredible blocking on the Euro. Send that polar vortex really far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Euro climo for guys in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 European is a stormy pattern to say the least. Just looked at the control and its showing the 850mb winds at 70 kts going through the Valley,wind advisory?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.