jaxjagman Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Not unusual temps for here. I generally get a November low in the teens about every other year on average. Last year we had 4 days in the teens in November. A 13, two 16's and an 18. Not sure if it's terribly unusual for it to drive that far south this early though. http://davesgarden.com/guides/freeze-frost-dates/index.php?q=32210&submit=Go I was more or less talking about Jacksonville and down south.You can put your zip in,on the page and it will give the average % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Folks, it's looking very cold in 5-10 day range. This is what happens when you get an Aleutian storm for the record books...pumps up the heights in Western Canada and send a plunge of cold air southward, to pretty much all areas East of the Rockies. A we need is a few shortwaves riding around the base of the trough to get some fun action, but at this time, doesn't appear likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Euro shows some snow all the way to B'HAM Edit:11-12,even gives some in N/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 12Z Euro already showing hints the Alaska ridge is just a 10-14 day event. Aleutians low trying to nudge east over the rest of the state by Day 15. That would also allow weak troughing on the West Coast under any West Canada ridge. I don't think cold will lock in through all of November. Might be a break around Thanksgiving. Nino years sometimes have a mild December before going colder than normal again Jan/Feb. But that may be getting ahead of this thread. Can't imagine any meaningful snow in this cold pattern, outside of the mountains and maybe Plateau. Cold fronts will charge through too fast with little chance of a low press wave. This early in the season low press would just stall the cold air keeping lower elevations rain. Be patient though. It is not even calendar or meteorological winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 12Z Euro already showing hints the Alaska ridge is just a 10-14 day event. Aleutians low trying to nudge east over the rest of the state by Day 15. That would also allow weak troughing on the West Coast under any West Canada ridge. I don't think cold will lock in through all of November. Might be a break around Thanksgiving. Nino years sometimes have a mild December before going colder than normal again Jan/Feb. But that may be getting ahead of this thread. Can't imagine any meaningful snow in this cold pattern, outside of the mountains and maybe Plateau. Cold fronts will charge through too fast with little chance of a low press wave. This early in the season low press would just stall the cold air keeping lower elevations rain. Be patient though. It is not even calendar or meteorological winter yet. hardcore meteorology here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 12Z Euro already showing hints the Alaska ridge is just a 10-14 day event. Aleutians low trying to nudge east over the rest of the state by Day 15. That would also allow weak troughing on the West Coast under any West Canada ridge. I don't think cold will lock in through all of November. Might be a break around Thanksgiving. Nino years sometimes have a mild December before going colder than normal again Jan/Feb. But that may be getting ahead of this thread. Can't imagine any meaningful snow in this cold pattern, outside of the mountains and maybe Plateau. Cold fronts will charge through too fast with little chance of a low press wave. This early in the season low press would just stall the cold air keeping lower elevations rain. Be patient though. It is not even calendar or meteorological winter yet. I love that I can count on you and Mr. Bob to provide a detailed and hype free analysis, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 12Z Euro already showing hints the Alaska ridge is just a 10-14 day event. Aleutians low trying to nudge east over the rest of the state by Day 15. That would also allow weak troughing on the West Coast under any West Canada ridge. I don't think cold will lock in through all of November. Might be a break around Thanksgiving. Nino years sometimes have a mild December before going colder than normal again Jan/Feb. But that may be getting ahead of this thread. Can't imagine any meaningful snow in this cold pattern, outside of the mountains and maybe Plateau. Cold fronts will charge through too fast with little chance of a low press wave. This early in the season low press would just stall the cold air keeping lower elevations rain. Be patient though. It is not even calendar or meteorological winter yet. Agree with that as a possibility, but models also tend to break down ridging too quickly at times. A ridge up the west coast, all the way to the pole (if it fully materializes) would be hard to nudge out. I'd be all for a relaxation around Thanksgiving though. Like you said, it's crazy early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 18z GFS brings us something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 18z GFS brings us something to keep an eye on That would make some folks happy,only if it were closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 That was a nice one for Tennessee to North Carolina and points north on the 18z. It'd be sweet to see a wide spread 3-6 event before Thanksgiving. Gonna see if the 00z has anything close to that this run. I was hoping for the new hi-res to 240 GFS soon, but it's apparently been delayed until December 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 00z came in way south of 18z, it has snow in the air from Central Mississippi to near Atlanta in 8 days. It's throwing down some cold air for sure. It also has 20's near Jackson Miss and New Orleans by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 gfsp_T2ma_namer_41.png 1024×622 .png ECH1 240.GIF 768×768 .png Dang son! Y'all are going to force me into model hugging a month early aren't you... Time to add a Euro subscription to round out the suite I guess. *sigh* November looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The GFS keeps sticking with the idea of snow in the 13th-15th time frame. It has snow in the air across a large part of the Tennessee Valley for 48 hours or so and drops 3-6 inches from the Plateau Eastward and Northward into SWVA/SEKy. Some form of this has been showing up since it was 240 hours out, now it is getting going around 150 hours out as of the 00z run. Snow flies across the valley from 150 until 204 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The GGEM also has snow over East Tennessee during this time frame but not as heavy. It has a LP about 100 miles off the South Carolina coast starting at 168 that's throwing some moisture back into some fairly cold air, generally below freezing across the entire state by 180. The GFS has the storm in almost the same spot, but more moisture is reaching back into the cold air over Tennessee, N. Alabama and points north and east. 7am next Friday morning the 14th per the GFS, with precip accumulated between 168-180. Snow looks good for everyone except maybe Chattanooga area as the precip type. We'll see if the models can remain consistent with this as we close in under 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Model Mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 sure looks like an extended period of cold coming for later next week and likely the following week too. Kind of crazy to be talking about another wintry threat before the middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 That's impressive if it's even close to being correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png That's impressive if it's even close to being correct I have to go back to November of 1950 to show a similar level of cold for late November. We all know what happened then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I tend to agree. Impressive for the time of year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png That's impressive if it's even close to being correct Where can this data be obtained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Where can this data be obtained? check your box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 ECMWF GFS DAY 8 10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON.png Model Mayhem 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 check your box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1415388556.220278.jpg I tend to agree. Impressive for the time of year.... Just think if it were Jan,the ens has it also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Just think if it were Jan,the ens has it also I know Jax, it's really crazy for early November to be seeing it so consistently modeled and getting stronger on the Euro. I would have thought we'd be cranking up the forum by now, but I guess it's still too early for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Larry Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm getting interested in the system towards mid month.As Cosgrove mentioned up above a possibility of a Miller "B" and also which could be a downfall we just don't know how cold we will be in the Valley as the models continue to argue the fact as how cold it will be basically from what effects from Nuri.But i glanced at the 18z at the LLJ'S and it's showing it from Mid/Ms to mid/al into S/Tn at 45 kts.,that alone is gonna pump in some gulf moisture.This is gonna be fun to watch this early in the season none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The latest from Cosgrove is even more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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