valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 And apparently the mean SREF is 1" for Knoxville. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 God luck guys! Hope yall get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Totally distracted Valkhorn, do you have KTRI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hoping it's not too bad heading over Sam's Gap Saturday morning. I guess there are worse things than getting caught in a driving snowstorm on November 1st, right? Has anyone heard from Carver's? I figured he'd be all over this early season fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hoping it's not too bad heading over Sam's Gap Saturday morning. I guess there are worse things than getting caught in a driving snowstorm on November 1st, right? Has anyone heard from Carver's? I figured he'd be all over this early season fun. Have a safe trip! May have some white knuckle driving after you pass Erwin. Bring the Vols some good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hoping it's not too bad heading over Sam's Gap Saturday morning. I guess there are worse things than getting caught in a driving snowstorm on November 1st, right? Has anyone heard from Carver's? I figured he'd be all over this early season fun. Hey, you all. Been working like 55-60 hour weeks. Been checking in and reading comments. Plus, was on vacation in Florida last week. Anyway, just basically been reading Alan Huffman's, WxRisk's, and WxSouth's social media pages. They pretty much nail it. I think this is a mountain event with an outside shot at an inch in the northern valley. That said, if it switches early it could be fun...well, minus the fact the trees still have leaves. edit: You wouldn't be making the trip to Columbia, heh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good to see you Carvers, hope you can slow down as we head into winter. Looks like we should have plenty to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Good to see you Carvers, hope you can slow down as we head into winter. Looks like we should have plenty to track. Definitely will be around from here on out...This threat is early. I usually don't have to juggle football season and my snowstorm hobby at the same time. LOL. Will be interesting to see the 0z models tonight. I think the trend will tell the tale. Climo argues against Valley snows, so I take anything at this time of year as strictly "bonus snow." Might trek on up to Roan Mtn on Saturday - the State Park if it does snow. I am looking forward to winter - whatever it may hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 WinterWx Advisories are up for the northern Valley locations now. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hmm...I have tried to ignore the potential as long as I can. Climo just argues against this, but MRX may force me to listen. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN901 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWFBRINGS UPPER LOW LATE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A LITTLEFARTHER WEST. HONESTLY...I HAVE NEVER SEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVELDROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS. VERY UN-COMMON. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK BRINGS THECOLDER UPPER LEVEL AIR (NEAR -30C AT 500MB) DIRECTLY OVER THEREGION WITH BETTER DYNAMICS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS...HOWMUCH WILL THE SNOW STICK? SINCE THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THENIGHT-TIME AND MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCEOF THE SNOW STICKING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES.STILL THINK THE ROADWAYS SHOULD BE GOOD GIVEN THE WARMTH OF THEGROUND.IF THIS SYSTEM OCCURRED DURING JANUARY...WOULD HAVE BEEN A MUCHDIFFERENT SNOW POTENTIAL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOSNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL.FOR TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEEWILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EVER-SO SLOWLY INTO THE AREA AND HAVE CHANGEDSKY FORECAST WORDING FOR TONIGHT.WILL HAVE NEW ZFP AND WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS OUT SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Promise not to gum-up the thread past this post...0z NAM looks drier in the northern Valley. Probably is sensing downsloping, rightfully so. Mountains are just going to get plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Totally distracted Valkhorn, do you have KTRI? The latest run of the SREF at 21z had a mean total snow accumulation of around 3.4 inches for KTRI. Very impressive but is probably bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Promise not to gum-up the thread past this post...0z NAM looks drier in the northern Valley. Probably is sensing downsloping, rightfully so. Mountains are just going to get plastered. Your right the 0z NAM cut down on snowfall and QPF by about half of the 18z run. There has to be some surprises with this rare system. Time of day should help a lot even with the warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Your right the 0z NAM cut down on snowfall and QPF by about half of the 18z run. There has to be some surprises with this rare system. Time of day should help a lot even with the warm ground. SREF plus keep 'inching' up for TYS. This is quite remarkable. Are you seeing the latest 2" mean with a 6.5" outlier? Or are my eyes deceiving me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 MRX has extended the WWA back to my area and their other Northern Plateau areas for 1-3 inches of snow. What an awesome way to kick off November if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 From the MRX AFD. Love the heavy snow wording. STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS SE THROUGH THE W TN VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER LOWWITH VERY COLD CORE SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLDAIR ADVECTION VERY STRONG BEGINNING LATER TODAY. FREEZING LEVELFALLS TO BELOW 1500 FEET EARLY TONIGHT. LITTLE QUESTION AS TOPRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE WARM LAYER BECOMING SO SHALLOW. MODERATETO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF KNOXVILLEFAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALLS SHOULD TAPEROFF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THEMOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VARIED ACROSS THE VALLEYSBUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD FREEZINGTEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 MRX graphic has been updated: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mrx/graphicast/image_full6.jpg I find it hard to believe they're expecting 1-2" for Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Wow I've been following this from a distance guys and really really wish I was back at home. Unfortunately for me, I'm in D.C. This weekend. That figures, the time I get to see one of the earliest snowfalls on record and I'll be gone. I can hardly believe the graphic MRX has posted this morning. Looks like they may have to put Knoxville N and E into the advisory too if those numbers are to be believed. That graphic has me in the 3-4in range!!! Incredible for late October. Y'all enjoy it and post lots of pictures for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 SREF plus keep 'inching' up for TYS. This is quite remarkable. Are you seeing the latest 2" mean with a 6.5" outlier? Or are my eyes deceiving me. Dang I missed this post. Yeah you were right. The 21z run had a mean just above 2" and the outlier with 6.5". But now the mean on the 3z run is 1.30 with an outlier of 3". The mean was really the same for KTRI with just above 3". 6z NAM meteogram had a whopping 7" at KTRI and 1.5" at KTYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I am having a hard time believing the NWS graphic out of the Morristown NWS for this system. Giving all of Washington County TN 4-6 inches. I just don't see it. I really think the mountains will do well, but if I had to guess I'd go with 1-2 for the valley locations in and around Washington County, less than that just northwest in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I am having a hard time believing the NWS graphic out of the Morristown NWS for this system. Giving all of Washington County TN 4-6 inches. I just don't see it. I really think the mountains will do well, but if I had to guess I'd go with 1-2 for the valley locations in and around Washington County, less than that just northwest in the valley. The graphic MRX put out this morning is a whole lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 they always do that. The morning and night crews have differing opinions on just about every winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 17z RAP radar reflectivity/ptype at 11z Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 MRX expanded the WWA to the south into Anderson, Hamblen, Grainger and Union counties for 1-2 inches in those areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Moisture's coming in already. Also 441 is going to close at 8PM tonight. I'm on the fence about hiking up to Leconte now. It's going to be pretty dangerous. I guess I'll wait and see how I feel early in the morning, then decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Already been snowing on Leconte for the past couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It is cooooooold and windy out there tonight. It's putting a damper on my haunted forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 21z RAP gave KTRI 2.8 inches and KTYS 1.2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Not getting too many trick or treaters so far this year with these rain squalls. I'm planning a trip up the skyway tomorrow for some fun in the snow. I'm expecting 4-5 inches at the top near the NC state line. TDOT is permitted to use roadway salt on the skyway, so it remains open during events that normally result in highway 441 being closed. No salt can be used for road treatment on 441 in the national park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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