John1122 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 06z NAM gives a good portion of middle Tennessee snow, and dumps 3-5 inches on the Northern Plateau and Northern Highland Rim with more in the mountains. This has continued to rise from 18 and 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The NAM snowfall map, once again, not depth, but how much falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This little system that could has me very excited. Most of the weather people I follow are giving at least some token accumulation for swva. And this place is pretty dead huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 KTRI had measurable snow in each month IIRC, per Carvers last year, starting in November, including Dec, Jan, Feb, March, and possibly even April, though I believe last year, the snow in November came later in the month. Will be interesting to see if we can start something similar for KTRI this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The NAM snowfall map, once again, not depth, but how much falls. It's looking like I may have to take a drive up the Skyway on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What's up Stove, I am heading to the UT SC football game, heading over Sam's Gap early Saturday morning. I am hoping for snow covered roads and whiteout conditions, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Good luck with the flakeage guys! I'll take my first freeze of the year and a couple of cold and windy days as well. Possibly a stray flake will break containment down my way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 0z runs of the GFS and NAM had the cutoff further west than the CMC and Euro but it seems with the 12z runs the NAM/GFS have shifted east with the cutoff closer to the Euro. It probably doesn't mean really much as the effects will be generally the same. Maybe it will cutdown on precip a little bit. The 6z NAM was bonkers and is an outlier in my opinion. It produced a whopping 1.38" of QPF at KTRI with all of it being rain. Temps on the 6z NAM were a good 8-10 degrees warmer than the 0z NAM. Meanwhile Knoxville picked up 3 inches of snow and Nashville picked up around an inch and a half. Here are some meteograms: KTRI: KTYS: KBNA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 While I'd love another 1993 Halloween type surprise, I'll settle for flakes in the air. Starting November with snow flying will be excellent. First frost was way earlier than I figured this year and it looks like the first snow will be earlier than I was thinking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm planning on heading up to Mt Leconte or Mt Sterling Saturday morning. 441 through the Smokys will likely be closed so I'll probably hike up Rainbow Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NWS Morristown just put out an accumulation forecast: That's a bit heavier along the AT than I thought. Looks like I'll be heading up the mountain before sunrise with a headlamp in case I get bogged down at higher elevations. I'm going to have to call around to see if I can get some micro spikes in time. I don't think my YakTrax pros will handle this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NWS Morristown just put out an accumulation forecast: That's a bit heavier along the AT than I thought. Looks like I'll be heading up the mountain before sunrise with a headlamp in case I get bogged down at higher elevations. I'm going to have to call around to see if I can get some micro spikes in time. I don't think my YakTrax pros will handle this. Sorta hard to believe some of those number, dont get me wrong, id love to see em, but thats a little excessive i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Sorta hard to believe some of those number, dont get me wrong, id love to see em, but thats a little excessive i think. Seems reasonable to me knowing my experience with the Smokys above 6000'. The moisture will be there for at least a day, and 1-2" of liquid equivalent precip above at least 5000' to me is not unreasonable. Either way I plan on finding out on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm wanting to head up that way too valkhorn, I don't know about hiking in it though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 One good thing about living in Tellico, 20 minutes up the skyway and you're at 5000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm wanting to head up that way too valkhorn, I don't know about hiking in it though lol It's not bad as long as you know how to handle it. Layers, crampons, gaiters, extra clothes, and above all else no blue jeans or cotton clothes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm planning on heading up to Mt Leconte or Mt Sterling Saturday morning. 441 through the Smokys will likely be closed so I'll probably hike up Rainbow Falls That sounds like fun. I've done a snowy LeConte hike in March before and I had to work twice as hard as usual. The frozen/thawed/refrozen stuff up near the top of bullhead was nearly impossible to walk on without specialized boots. Take some pics and post em for us Saturday and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That sounds like fun. I've done a snowy LeConte hike in March before and I had to work twice as hard as usual. The frozen/thawed/refrozen stuff up near the top of bullhead was nearly impossible to walk on without specialized boots. Take some pics and post em for us Saturday and be safe! Will do. I just re-ordered microspikes since my YakTrax were borken thanks to a snowy walk on the AT some time ago. Amazon Prime is a wonderful thing. I've done a few slips and slides on the Bullhead thanks to snow before. I plan on starting early so I can take my time up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm looking at the updated forecast and it's also going to be really windy at the high elevations. This is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 According to the meteograms, the last two runs of the GFS want to put a half inch or more of snow on the ground in Knoxville. While I doubt anything can stick here, the consistency of the models has me excited about seeing flakes in the air at least. I wonder how far I'll have to drive to see decent ground coverage. The Skyway is still looking like a good plan for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 From MRX this morning. Looks like it's going to be interesting in SWVA and the mountains, as expected! .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOPA STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ONTHE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM PULLING WINTER-LIKE CHILL INTO THETENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR THIS WEEKEND. AWINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIAAND THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. AS THE COLD AIRMOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH ORCHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS...FIRST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY EVENINGFOLLOWED BY VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONSARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE2500 FEET...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DECREASING MOISTURE WILLLIKELY BRING DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING.ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ELEVATION. AT THISTIME...BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITHUP TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE TENNESSEEMOUNTAINS. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEEMOUNTAINS BELOW 2500 FEET COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 4 INCHES. ROADS IN THEMOUNTAINS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. PERSONS PLANNING ONTRAVELING ON HIGHWAY 411 OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS OR ROADWAYSACROSS HIGH KNOB...VIRGINIA NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE POSSIBILITYOF SNOW AND ICY ROADS. DOWNED TREES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THESNOW ACCUMULATING ON FOLIAGE STILL LEFT ON MANY TREES. tnweathernut, be careful on your way to SC! Go Vols...worried about this one. All of them, actually! Valkhorn, looking forward to some pics from your trip if you get the chance to post them. Have a safe hike to LeConte. And you're right in your earlier post; cotton kills! If anyone doesn't know the site, I highly recommend High on LeConte: http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Some places are going to clear a foot, maybe some places 18". I'm pretty shocked at how well the models sniffed this out early on. If I didn't have plans I would snag a cabin for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 According to the meteograms, the last two runs of the GFS want to put a half inch or more of snow on the ground in Knoxville. While I doubt anything can stick here, the consistency of the models has me excited about seeing flakes in the air at least. I wonder how far I'll have to drive to see decent ground coverage. The Skyway is still looking like a good plan for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 This might help some out http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Gfs got colder.20 for tri early sun morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN218 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014 ...RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL FOR OCTOBER AT NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE... RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT HAS TOTALED 8.41INCHES WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 8.35 INCHES SET BACKIN 1919. RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH AT CROSSVILLE HAS TOTALED 8.82 INCHESWHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 7.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1981. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINFALL ON HALLOWEEN AND EVENTHE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE UPPERCUMBERLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE SNOW HAS FALLEN ONLY TWICE AT NASHVILLE IN THE MONTH OFOCTOBER. ON THIS DATE IN 1925...NASHVILLE MEASURED ONE INCH OFSNOWFALL. THIS IS THE LARGEST SNOWFALL IN OCTOBER AT NASHVILLE.ALSO...ON THIS DATE IN 1993 NASHVILLE HAD A TRACE OF SNOW. SNOWHAS FALLEN ONLY TWICE ON HALLOWEEN IN NASHVILLE. THE FIRST WAS IN1931 WHEN A TRACE WAS MEASURED...AND THE SECOND TIME WAS IN 1993WHEN 0.4 INCH OF SNOW FELL ON HALLOWEEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GFS has snow in the air in Middle Tennessee by 8 pm, the Plateau and Mountains by 11, most of East Tennessee by 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 David Aldrich is really up selling this. He had trace - 2 inches in the Central Valley, 2-4 from Campbell Co East to the Tri Cities and SW VA, 1-3+ on the Plateau and 5-14" above 2500 feet in all those areas. I think he's too aggressive but MRX talking about the upper low tracking directly across East Tennessee and the fact that it's coming between 11 pm and 6 am may allow for accumulations at lower elevations. Apparently the snowfall rates are going to be very strong where it's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wow the 18z NAM has 5" at KTRI!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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