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Oct.-Nov Pattern Discussion


jaxjagman

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Another negative AO plunge is in the works.  You can thank recurving Vongfong in the WPAC for that.  

 

ao.sprd2.gif

Yeah,looks like a chance of some severe weather again around the 20-21st maybe.850 anomolies on this afternoons Euro show below normal for the whole Valley through the period.

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AO and NAO are going positive in the medium to long range.  PNA is going negative.  All signs point to a rather tranquil pattern for the SE and also no big cool downs.  Biggest cool down looks like day 10 on the Euro and even farther out on the GFS.  Could even see some above average temps in the medium to long range.   

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Should be beautiful weather this upcoming weekend and into early next week.  I selfishly hope the front and showers hold off for Wednesday next week as we are having trunk or treat at our church.

I have noticed in the last couple of weeks, our overnight lows have busted several times too low.  Cloud cover kept temps up two of the times, but just thought it was interesting.

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Per the 0z Euro."Fantasy Snow Season" starts early.

Saw this also.Gotta love though how its almost in mid range.I think you guys on the east side are gonna have a sweet winter in the higher elev,good luck !!

 

Do we need to start a Nov thread or do you guys just want me to add Nov to this one?

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From MRX. 

 

 

 

ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE WITH BRINGING IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
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While the extreme solution the Euro showed for a few runs will not have a chance of happening, the first flakes of the season look likely for the higher elevations. The GFS has slowly been trending a little bit deeper and further west with the energy coming from Canada. The NAM is just now coming into range and it is slightly sharper than the GFS. I think that the higher elevations could see a couple of inches of upslope snow. If enough moisture can hang around then maybe the valleys from Knoxville northward can see some flakes. It is going to be a quick but impressive cold front for Halloween!

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MRX really stepped up their forecast for snow. I'm up to a 60 percent chance Friday night and Saturday. The mountains should indeed get a few inches. Hopefully it's as potent as the Halloween of 1993 storm that gave me 3 inches but I can't imagine it'll be that great. MRX did say that most of East Tennessee and SW VA would see snow.

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MRX really stepped up their forecast for snow. I'm up to a 60 percent chance Friday night and Saturday. The mountains should indeed get a few inches. Hopefully it's as potent as the Halloween of 1993 storm that gave me 3 inches but I can't imagine it'll be that great. MRX did say that most of East Tennessee and SW VA would see snow.

0Z GFS now has TRI at .37 QPF's

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It's putting down 1-3 inches of snowfall on the Northern Plateau and Northern Valley, up to an inch in the Central valley and 3-6 in the mountains. 

 

That is snow fall keep in mind, not snow depth.

 

Agreed. I think accumulations if any will be lower in the valley due to soil temps, but significant (up to 6") in the mountains due to persistent moisture and good 850mb temps.

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GFS and NAM deliver warning level snows to the mountains. Euro, not so much. MRX mentions light accumulations could happen in the valley areas.

 

I think the Euro isn't that good at handling localized NW Flow events, so I wouldn't rule out 3-6" snowfall accumulation along the AT.

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