jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/ Didn't even know this came out,another toy to play with..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Also, check out hour 60 on the GFS...is it possible that some piece of energy gets sent up west of the Apps if this is jogging west. Sometimes, these westward trends turn out to be hybrid miller A and B I'm going out of town on Wednesday so it would be my luck if Thanksgiving was white in Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro, NAM, and GFS show little making it over Apps. Whatever does would be erased by downsloping. Maybe rates are high enough in the NC foothills. Basically, this morning's runs show an eastward correction. Looks like that is the rough track. Warm-up to follow, then we wait for the winter pattern to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The 0z Euro has 30 ensemble members showing over 2 inches of snow at KTRI with 16 over 6 and an ensemble mean of almost 4. There is a sharp cutoff no doubt, but I wouldn't count out a sloppy inch or two for the Tri-Cities just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 KTRI with the hope to get "fringed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 KTRI with the hope to get "fringed"ImageUploadedByTapatalk1416834663.758366.jpg My text shows ..22 frozen for Tri,not sure that clown map on wxbell is right. Edit:It's probably a mix of IP and sn,your lower levels arent very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 My text shows ..22 frozen for Tri,not sure that clown map on wxbell is right. The Wxbell clown map is much more aggressive with snow amounts. The one I posted is the Eurowx map posted by DT that shows much less accumulation than Wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Wxbell clown map is much more aggressive with snow amounts. The one I posted is the Eurowx map posted by DT that shows much less accumulation than Wxbell. I.C..Maybe we'll see some difference on the 12z colder wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wish i could bring you guys some better news,the 12z wasnt a kind run for yall to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm WXCASTER added some new tools,not sure if anyone was aware of it but at the top you can compare the GFS to the GFSP Edit:Be careful comparing the snowmaps,the GFS looks outdated.Kuchera ratio http://www.wxcaster.com/gfs-para-snow.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks for the text data Jax. I've still not given up on this storm yet. 0z NAM is colder and wetter than most runs. Has around .80 inches of QPF in KTRI and 5 inches of snow. That being said the NAM is the outlier and is colder and wetter than the GFS and Euro. I think that a snowy solution may happen if we get heavier rates (dynamical cooling) so maybe the NAM is onto something. But I have seen these marginal systems turn out to be rain most of the time. Elevation will play a big role in this system as it most often does in marginal situations. My call would be up to a slushy inch around KTRI and NETN, 3-6 inches for areas in SWVA that have more elevation, and 6+ for the mountains of TN/NC above 3000 feet. I would think that the mountains should be under a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Advisories for SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Northeast TN hanging on by the skin of their hi-res 18z NAM......lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Hoping this little system packs the punch it's being advertised to pack and I can swing 1-2 inches of snow out of it that the WWA for my area advertises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 3z HRRR gives some love with tonight's clipper for the northern valley. HRRR did well with Wednesday mornings non event. Best accumulations outside of mountains will probably be close to Johns place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 In the valleys, climo will win 99% of the time outside of extreme events. The Thanksgiving system, no matter how promising it was modeled, did not pan out for most. Just too much that has to go right for snow this early. Now, I know the foothills and elevation have done OK by Nov standards and even into SC of all places. However, remember the majority of the SE and TN Valley remain snowless as it should be. Now, here comes a moderate warm-up with a very +NAO look if yesterday's Euro is to be believed. Personally, I think those cold, snowy (especially the cold) forecasts are in some serious trouble. And I am not trying to be negative as that is really not scientific. I am very wary of group think. A neat fact, in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) if everyone agrees on a plan, it is the responsibility ot someone in the group to take on the role of devil's advocate. Hope I have to eat crow. I still think we have a good winter, just not epic. Should be cold and snowy, just not to the degree of many forecasts. Going to need some blocking in the Atlantic, not just a +PNA. It would seem a cool down to normal could be seen by mid-Dec. That would be my next time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The CFS2, though vastly undependable at times last winter, is pointing to a warm Dec and Feb with a slightly above Jan. Does anyone have the Euro weeklies? I bet they support a warmer than normal pattern. Warmer temps certainly do not preclude snow, might even make a big snow more likely. Again, I may be in a minority, but it would seem Dec-Feb will average slightly above normal (maybe near normal) with temps and near normal for snow. Now, it is winter and I suspect we will deal with some sever bouts of cold and have storms to track, though through mid-Dec this looks unlikely in the Upper South. The storm track does seem to have a coastal component to it. So, Nor'easters are certainly in the cards. I just don't see the cold November pattern extending into winter. Let's hope the winter remembers November at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 The weeklies are not cold,blah looking Someone needs to start a winter thread,i started the last pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The weeklies are not cold,blah looking Someone needs to start a winter thread,i started the last pattern thread. Yeah, good call. I started a thread for December. Jax, you had pretty good mojo for this thread...especially November. Here's to Nashville finally cashing in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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