jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS 30mb Temperature Instant Weather Maps.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 00z GFS is bringing Friday's storm westward a little compared to 18z and 12z. I'm almost willing to bet real money the NW shift on this thing could be another 150-200 miles. It originally was coastal NC/VA only. Now it's backing into western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 00z GFS is bringing Friday's storm westward a little compared to 18z and 12z. I'm almost willing to bet real money the NW shift on this thing could be another 150-200 miles. It originally was coastal NC/VA only. Now it's backing into western NC. More instability is being shown on the 0z GFS,K index up to 35 for BNA and the 850 winds are now 65 plus,more to the east.Surprised there is no wind advisories posted yet Edit:around noonish time tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 More instability is being shown on the 0z GFS,K index up to 35 for BNA and the 850 winds are now 65 plus,more to the east.Surprised there is no wind advisories posted yet Edit:around noonish time tom The funny thing is at that time period on the GFS you pretty much don't want the snow to be on top of you because it's almost guaranteed that that model run will be wrong. I feel much better about it being to the southeast than on top of us or to the northwest because the GFS has a tendency to put these things to far to the SE. I also mentioned this in the SE forum and got ignored namely because it's not want people in eastern NC want to hear. Oh wells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The funny thing is at that time period on the GFS you pretty much don't want the snow to be on top of you because it's almost guaranteed that that model run will be wrong. I feel much better about it being to the southeast than on top of us or to the northwest because the GFS has a tendency to put these things to far to the SE. I also mentioned this in the SE forum and got ignored namely because it's not want people in eastern NC want to hear. Oh wells. I am not so sure. There are a lot of things against this system being this far west. I have seen countless times the Euro nail it from this range and it really doesn't have anything this far back. I do think a snowstorm is coming, but I think it's more for parts of northern NC and points NNE. Not completely discounting the potential, but just think it gets going a bit too late for parts of eastern TN. If I were putting odds on snow back this far it would be around 10-20 percent and an 80-90% chance it stays mostly east. Let's see how that changes with the 0z Euro this evening. It's already snowed 3 times around KTRI this month (mostly airport and south), so we have that going for us. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 The funny thing is at that time period on the GFS you pretty much don't want the snow to be on top of you because it's almost guaranteed that that model run will be wrong. I feel much better about it being to the southeast than on top of us or to the northwest because the GFS has a tendency to put these things to far to the SE. I also mentioned this in the SE forum and got ignored namely because it's not want people in eastern NC want to hear. Oh wells. Yeah the eastern parts don't look like snow,the interior could do good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The biggest concern I have is having to rely on perfect timing. More often than not, these things don't work out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I am not so sure. There are a lot of things against this system being this far west. I have seen countless times the Euro nail it from this range and it really doesn't have anything this far back. I do think a snowstorm is coming, but I think it's more for parts of northern NC and points NNE. Not completely discounting the potential, but just think it gets going a bit too late for parts of eastern TN. If I were putting odds on snow back this far it would be around 10-20 percent and an 80-90% chance it stays mostly east. Let's see how that changes with the 0z Euro this evening. It's already snowed 3 times around KTRI this month (mostly airport and south), so we have that going for us. lol I just remember last winter and the winters before that with the GFS doing the same thing. I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened with this kind of low. I think things are going to be too hard to see until Monday or Tuesday to be honest due to the massive storm barreling through beforehand. I don't think the 0z Euro tonight or even tomorrow has good odds of nailing it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 When you review the entire catalog of numerical models covering the longer term, you come to the conclusion that there should be a strong warming trend over most, if not all, of the lower 48 states. But having been burned one too many times before (how many times can YOU count that promised relaxation of the -AO signature did not occur?), I am exerting caution and looking not only for a warm-up, but possible scenarios for a return to the rather volatile, "punch in your face" bouts with cold and snow that we have seen during November. Since the analog forecasts have been working extremely well for most of this year (please forget March, it happens to the best of us...grin....), I decided to look at what the last day in the 11 - 15 day forecast might look like if one blended the respective years together. This snapshot is comprised of December 7 from 1952 (twice), 1957, 1960, 1968, 1976 (x3), 1979, 1985, 1986, 1995, 2002 (x3), 2004, 2006, 2009 (twice), and 2012. Surprisingly, the 500MB and surface temperature charts look very much like what we have seen during transition periods. Very mild on both coasts, but cold air surging southward through the Upper Midwest and Great Plains. While not a method that I would pin a whole forecast on, I do like the idea of the spell of moderation lasting only between December 1 and 7. Notice also that, like the current range of ensemble forecasts, there is a stronger southern branch disturbance over the western Gulf Coast. I suspect that such a feature may play as much of a role in introducing a new batch of Arctic air as does a shortwave digging to the lee of ridging along the West Coast and Alaska. So another major precipitation event could be in store for Dixie, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard as we head into the second week of December. Another thing to touch on is the character of weather around the Northern Hemisphere. By now most have heard of the gigantic snow and ice totals about Eurasia and North America. Many, however, may have been misinformed about the ENSO state or not heard about the warm water pooling along the entire western shoreline of the continent. The El Nino is building, and may actually near a moderate realm (+1 deg C above normal SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) before easing off in the spring. Since the Madden-Julian Oscillation is now in a full Phase 2 alignment (clustered over the Indian Ocean and no longer connected to the Aleutian Low complex), the break in the cold seems likely in the longer term forecast. But as we have seen through the autumn, a shift to Phase 6, 7 or 8 occurs with full linkage to negative 500MB height anomalies southwest of Alaska. This is where the roller coaster ridge may begin anew in the December 8 - 12 period. And remember this: it is not even winter yet!Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Its gotta go soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS trended toward the 0z Euro overnight with the precip shield further west. Both accumulation maps have the 2+ inch line right on the NC/TN line. Like valkhorn I think it will trend more to the west but not too much more than 50-100 miles. We need a phase to happen further to the west with the help of the northern stream wave. The digging northern wave helps the broader turn negative tilt as it phases. So dig baby dig is all I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The Euro ensembles are mostly east of the OP from 0z. Keep in mind the Euro tends to wrap storms up a little too much. With other guidance east of the euro I just don't see a further west scenario than the 0z Euro's look. My guess would be small scale corrections east, not west. Would be funny to see the para GFS be correct with a swing and a miss wide right for just about everyone...... Funny in that differing model runs later in winter would create a LOT of message board chatter about what might actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So close but so far away on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 So close but so far away on 12z GFS. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1416759291.821941.jpg Looks like it's still trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 strat.png st.png Its gotta go soon huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The low that is showing up in the upper Midwest is troubling. May not matter where this thing tracks for those in the southeast, as that feature will shut off any cold air transport into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 huh? Polar Vorex.It can't get stretched out much more.10hpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does anyone have text qpf output numbers from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Does anyone have text qpf output numbers from the euro? which site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Those in east TN from KTYS to KTRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Those in east TN from KTYS to KTRI Soon as it loads up i will,i have to take one of my kids to a party in 45 minutes so if dont load up by then, i'll do it when i get back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 No problem. Thanks. Looking forward to the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z GFS rolled in and it is a tick further west with the precip shield and snow accumulations. Also the the 18z NAM was significantly west of its earlier runs but is still well east of the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I say this only for entertainment purposes, but I recall similar conversation last year in the days leading up to an event. "No way it moves further west!" spoken (typed?) over and over again, yet we all know what happened. That said, I'm inclined to err on the side of conservatism as well. The shift could continue and model consistency improve. The best takeaway is that we are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 If it moves further west I will have to eat my words. The introduction of a taller ridge out west is proving to sharpen the eastern trough up even more, causing the western solutions. Fun to have another possibility to track.....before December. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The bigger problem may be temperature profiles in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I think this is an example of it just being too early for snow outside of the mountains and foothills. To me, I like the westward trend, but with the caveat that the trend stops about where it is now, snow in western North Carolina and the E TN mountains. I do not envision this jogging into the eastern Valley, but it certainly could happen. Bastardi has been hammering that the solutions were too far east. I will add that when it snows in DC from storms ejecting northeast, NE TN does have a tendency to get involved at times. I think right now, I am just waiting for the actual winter pattern to show itself...and maybe it already has in November - I hope! As for middle and west TN which I don't mention enough, I don't see this Thanksgiving system getting that far west. Possibly some upslope for the Plateau and west facing slopes of E TN above 2500'. Great conversation by everyone yesterday and today. Blue Ridge, you need to post more. Tnweathernut, great insight as usual. 1234 good input as well. Jax, love the data and maps. Valk, keep it going - saw someone broke a leg on the way to LeConte this weekend. Jeff, excellent analysis - keep it up. I went to the UT game last night or would have posted more today - and yes, I stayed through two onsides kicks and until the clock hit zero. I was a bitter man after that mess of officiating. Teasing of course. PM me your thoughts. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Also, check out hour 60 on the GFS...is it possible that some piece of energy gets sent up west of the Apps if this is jogging west. Sometimes, these westward trends turn out to be hybrid miller A and B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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