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Nashville Forecast for 10/11/14


Electric Lizard

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OK guys, my daughter is getting married in Nashville on 10/11/14 and is asking Daddy about the forecast.  Any help?

Welcome to the board and congrats to your daughter.The GFS is showing a cold front coming though us right about this time.Who knows if that's right 324 hrs out,you are asking for a miracle to have anything precise right now

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OK guys, my daughter is getting married in Nashville on 10/11/14 and is asking Daddy about the forecast. Any help?

Welcome to the forum! Like jax said it is virtually impossible for the GFS to accurately forecast that far out in time. The model does run out to 384 hours (16 days) but anything beyond 180 hours (7 days) should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said the last 3 runs of the GFS (0z, 6z, 12z) has shown rain over most of Tennessee on the 11th but that will change drastically. The trough being shown could easily be a ridge on future runs.

Just check back in toward the end of this week and we will have a better idea of what will happen.

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It's starting to look like a cold frontal passage for next weekend.  What's the best source to judge the timing as we get closer?

 

Try this : http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBNA

 

If you have trouble reading it please let me know. This is updated four times a day and the date in questions is getting close enough that you can start taking it seriously.

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Thanks much.  This shows fropa early on Saturday morning - that'll be great if it verifies.  I'll check back regularly.

 

What is interesting about next weekend is that the possible rain may be indirectly caused by a tropical system (but not from the Atlantic). Tropical Storm Simon is currently in the Pacific and is excepted to become a hurricane and recurve into Baja. The system then gets picked up and treks across the desert Southwest and into the heart of the nation and then into the Ohio Valley. Before this happens though there will be a cold front that looks to stall just to the north of us thanks to the Southeast ridge developing. The remnants of the system will probably kick the cold front through our area sometime next weekend. So the threat of rain is there but it is still way out there.

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Electric, unfortunately it is looking like Saturday is most likely going to be wet. The remnants from Simon are currently over the Tucson, AZ area. It is now looking like the energy associated with Simon will be more strung out and not consolidated like past model runs. So the energy won't be strong enough to kick the front clear and the front be still be stalled out in the general Tennessee Valley region with chances of rain tomorrow thru next week.

The GFS and NAM have rain on Saturday morning with lingering showers in the afternoon. I don't think Saturday will be a complete washout yet (70% chance from the NWS). There may be some clearing in the afternoon and lesser chances of rains. It just depends on what time any convective blobs develop. That much detail is still very hard to figure out this far out.

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