LithiaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I think 2000-2010 was their snowiest decade. It's trending upward due to a negative feedback caused by AGW. Not enough evidence for either argument thus far. Timescales are fairly short, seems to be a reoccurring problem when drawing conclusions in this field of study. Then why did you claim the bolded as fact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 How can you use historical analogs when the atmospheric content and associated interplay was different? Establishing an internal source of variability helps us understand AGW's effects better. How do you think we know that a significant portion of the warming since the 19th century is attributable to AGW? We know because we measure the internal variability prior to AGW and conclude that the current rise is anomalously out of the typical internal ranges...we combine this knowledge with the physical radiating properties of GHGs and come to the conclusion that feedbacks are not negative and AGW is causing a majority of the warming. For snow cover, we don't really know if AGW is affecting it in a net positive or negative way over Siberia in autumn. The changes are within the bounds of natural variability and we know that past periods of high and low snow cover have occurred. There's arguments that perhaps very recently (since 2007), the lower sea ice in autumn provides much more moisture in northern Siberia which increases the snow cover there...it's a compelling theory, but the sample is so low that it could also just be noise. If it was true, then AGW could be increasing it in the short term. But we don't know by how much because 1) the sample is too low 2) we still don't know how much AGW is responsible for the sea ice decline 3) Other factors such as the PDO and Asian monsoon patterns which could affect snow cover/moisture in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 How can you use historical analogs when the atmospheric content and associated interplay was different? "Dynamic interplay" is never the same from year to year..which is exactly why tying short term trends in snowcover to AGW is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 "Dynamic interplay" is never the same from year to year..which is exactly why tying short term trends in snowcover to AGW is stupid. A continuation above the "background state" would raise alarms, agreed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Then why did you claim the bolded as fact? It'll be interesting to see the response to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 A continuation above the "background state" would raise alarms, agreed? No, because it's done so in the past. If it keeps increasing to the point where it becomes a notable statistical anomaly, then we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 We are witnessing record high extent it appears. The positive anomolies are totally amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Greatest fall snow cover on record. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/04/fall-snow-cover-in-northern-hemisphere-was-most-extensive-on-record-even-with-temperatures-at-high-mark/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Greatest fall snow cover on record. Started fast and has been above normal almost every day since contributing to cold NH continents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 2015 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 2015 2014 That's amazing how the snow in the Pacific NW stops at the US/Canadian border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's amazing how the snow in the Pacific NW stops at the US/Canadian border I know, right. The Eurasian side should be even more divergent in a few weeks. Talking major early season melt out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wasn't 2014 at a record high last year at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know, right. The Eurasian side should be even more divergent in a few weeks. Talking major early season melt out. The Pacific northwest only gets deep snow in the higher elevations and it gets mega deep.... the lower elevations don't really average much anyhow. One storm between now and April will change this situation. The lasting albedo from this cover is pretty short lived. If you want to look at Asia as being low, that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Pacific northwest only gets deep snow in the higher elevations and it gets mega deep.... the lower elevations don't really average much anyhow. One storm between now and April will change this situation. The lasting albedo from this cover is pretty short lived. If you want to look at Asia as being low, that's another story. You are correct. The Cascades can have over 20' of snow while the valleys and coastal regions have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the snow pack on southern Vancouver Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Has been an unusual NHem. snow cover evolution this year with very rapid initial growth and then a stall since the end of November, Could lead to a fast spring warm-up in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is the snow pack on southern Vancouver Island. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Has been an unusual NHem. snow cover evolution this year with very rapid initial growth and then a stall since the end of November, Could lead to a fast spring warm-up in some areas nhemsnow.png Most western US snowcover outside of the mountains averaged around 3-10 inches deep last year at this time. Two sunny days above 40F and it would have melted regardless. So the cooling effect would have been short lived.Actually that map probably changed a lot since you posted it for last year, most of the western US has no snow outside the mountains. The snowcover lasted just a day or two after a torch. Just as I assumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Compared to last year there is less snow in the mountains and just about everywhere else, Eurasia is much lower than last year also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Compared to last year there is less snow in the mountains and just about everywhere else, Eurasia is much lower than last year also. snow2015.jpg Last winter had a few all time snowcover records, so I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Easy to see why harmonics are so important and how fast things can run in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Has been an unusual NHem. snow cover evolution this year with very rapid initial growth and then a stall since the end of November, Could lead to a fast spring warm-up in some areas nhemsnow.png Can you link to the original. It would be great to have in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can you link to the original. It would be great to have in Spring. Ticked a little lower on latest. This year is now the lowest of the last 10 years. http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Easy to see why harmonics are so important and how fast things can run in the other direction. To elaborate a bit more. I think we underestimate how much albedo can affect cloud cover and fog generation. Albedo reduction constitutes a key feedback to global warming, especially before ECS is fully realized. We've never really observed a snow-starved February yet, and as a result the month was running colder on most datasets in recent years. In my mind, this signals a significant shift in the climate system and could be a major impetus for other processes going forward. February GISS temperatures 2008 31 2009 48 2010 74 2011 44 2012 43 2013 51 2014 43 (2015) 76-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 To elaborate a bit more. I think we underestimate how much albedo can affect cloud cover and fog generation. Albedo reduction constitutes a key feedback to global warming, especially before ECS is fully realized. We've never really observed a snow-starved February yet, and as a result the month was running colder on most datasets in recent years. In my mind, this signals a significant shift in the climate system and could be a major impetus for other processes going forward. February GISS temperatures 2008 31 2009 48 2010 74 2011 44 2012 43 2013 51 2014 43 (2015) 76-88 It's like 5% lower than the mean or less.... It's not even the lowest on record. February 1998 was 86. That's unlikely, but in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's like 5% lower than the mean or less.... It's not even the lowest on record. February 1998 was 86. That's unlikely, but in play. It's not done dropping, however I expect some recovery toward late month. Lowest of the 2000s tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 snow cover about to get a big boost this week in the U.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ClimateCrocks has a recent post on N. Hemi snow cover. It's not a topic I know much about so I found it very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Not looking to hot for Eurasia. Big torch coming up next week for the Western 1/2th of Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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