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October 2014


Rtd208

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With a good tropical feed becoming established this week, places like JFK 

have a shot at their first 1 inch or greater rainfall since August 14th.

 

attachicon.gifGFS_3_2014101306_F48_PWATIN_SURFACE.png

 

attachicon.gifGFS_3_2014101306_F72_PWATIN_SURFACE.png

This would have been a great setup for a northwestward moving tropical system to impact the area but the timing is off.

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This week's event could be the most exciting in a long time and actually deliver a lot of rainfall and perhaps severe weather. Negatively tilted trough with ample tropical moisture being pumped north. I could easily see some spots picking up several inches of rain.

Looks like a classic fire hose type setup, but as is always is the case with convection, we'll have winners and losers.

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The Euro has sped up yet again and now has the rain moving in by midnight Thursday, lasting into Thursday afternoon. Everyone is over an inch.

Precip amounts are probably not going to be accurate given the synoptics involved. If this setup goes as advertised I believe most locations will easily receive 2-3". This is the type of setup that would have produced some river flooding if the conditions preceeding it had been wetter.

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This would have been a great setup for a northwestward moving tropical system to impact the area but the timing is off.

 

Yeah, Gonzalo is recurving too far east to get captured by the trough. But a little further

west we would be talking about a hurricane coming up the coast.

 

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Anyone else really fascinated by drizzle? A steady, soaking drizzle is delightful, totally different precip processes at work, too.

I have vivid memories of trick or treating with my mom as a little kid on Halloween night once with decent drizzle. It was very atmospheric and fitting.

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Latest GFS shows dynamics for very heavy rainfall weakening in our area, before moisture from Hurricane Gonzola gets involved. Parts of LI and New England could get soaked again on Thursday night/Friday AM.

 

It still dumps over 2 inches on the tristate area. I wouldn't focus on the details from the GFS too much.

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We need a good system this month with a soaking rain and down the line it will payoff just going by the last couple of octobers .The cycle would probably repeat itself sometime in the near future in a cold environment ,a disruptive event in winter if all the players are on the field.

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Most of us don't really see a frost anyway being in an urban setting and next to the coast.

most of the immediate metro area has yet to go below the mid 40's.  we don't really get an "indian summer" because it's usually too late to get back into extended warm wx by the time we get a frost

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