IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 With a good tropical feed becoming established this week, places like JFK have a shot at their first 1 inch or greater rainfall since August 14th. GFS_3_2014101306_F48_PWATIN_SURFACE.png GFS_3_2014101306_F72_PWATIN_SURFACE.png This would have been a great setup for a northwestward moving tropical system to impact the area but the timing is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 With a good tropical feed becoming established this week, places like JFK have a shot at their first 1 inch or greater rainfall since August 14th. GFS_3_2014101306_F48_PWATIN_SURFACE.png GFS_3_2014101306_F72_PWATIN_SURFACE.png Haven't had a 1 inch or greater rainfall here since July 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Haven't had a 1 inch or greater rainfall here since July 15th.June 13th here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The 12z GFS is indicating the potential for a widespread 2.00"+ rainfall event during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 This week's event could be the most exciting in a long time and actually deliver a lot of rainfall and perhaps severe weather. Negatively tilted trough with ample tropical moisture being pumped north. I could easily see some spots picking up several inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 This week's event could be the most exciting in a long time and actually deliver a lot of rainfall and perhaps severe weather. Negatively tilted trough with ample tropical moisture being pumped north. I could easily see some spots picking up several inches of rain. Looks like a classic fire hose type setup, but as is always is the case with convection, we'll have winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Storm is very impressive out in the Midwest...Joplin is over 8" for the month already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The Euro has sped up yet again and now has the rain moving in by midnight Thursday, lasting into Thursday afternoon. Everyone is over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The Euro has sped up yet again and now has the rain moving in by midnight Thursday, lasting into Thursday afternoon. Everyone is over an inch. Precip amounts are probably not going to be accurate given the synoptics involved. If this setup goes as advertised I believe most locations will easily receive 2-3". This is the type of setup that would have produced some river flooding if the conditions preceeding it had been wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 This would have been a great setup for a northwestward moving tropical system to impact the area but the timing is off. Yeah, Gonzalo is recurving too far east to get captured by the trough. But a little further west we would be talking about a hurricane coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Lots of pretty colors on the 15z SREF members, but you get the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Currently 62 here with light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Anyone else really fascinated by drizzle? A steady, soaking drizzle is delightful, totally different precip processes at work, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Anyone else really fascinated by drizzle? A steady, soaking drizzle is delightful, totally different precip processes at work, too. I have vivid memories of trick or treating with my mom as a little kid on Halloween night once with decent drizzle. It was very atmospheric and fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Freezing drizzle's interesting. It's the sneak attack type of weather - doesn't get all the hype of a snow event, but can cause more havoc on the roadways. Also produces a nice glaze on objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The Euro now has rain reaching us Wednesday evening. It has sped up significantly over the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Latest GFS shows dynamics for very heavy rainfall weakening in our area, before moisture from Hurricane Gonzola gets involved. Parts of LI and New England could get soaked again on Thursday night/Friday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The 00z GGEM has the rain mostly over by Thursday morning with moderate rain overspreading the region by Wednesday early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Pretty classic setup for major rainfall event on the 06z RGEM with a closed low over the Ohio Valley and perefect moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Latest GFS shows dynamics for very heavy rainfall weakening in our area, before moisture from Hurricane Gonzola gets involved. Parts of LI and New England could get soaked again on Thursday night/Friday AM. It still dumps over 2 inches on the tristate area. I wouldn't focus on the details from the GFS too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Looks like the low of 63 this morning will make the top 5 highest min for the date...probably have a shot tomorrow as well. With sun wonder if 80 is possible as a high today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 We need a good system this month with a soaking rain and down the line it will payoff just going by the last couple of octobers .The cycle would probably repeat itself sometime in the near future in a cold environment ,a disruptive event in winter if all the players are on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The latest guidance is indicating the potential for two precip maxes, one north of Philly on the PA/NJ border and the other over Long Island into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Summer breeze makes me feel fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Summer breeze makes me feel fine Typical Indian Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Sorry its not...have to have a frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Sorry its not...have to have a frost Already had a frost here, but thanks for playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Already had a frost here, but thanks for playing Most of us don't really see a frost anyway being in an urban setting and next to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 73/65 feeling muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Most of us don't really see a frost anyway being in an urban setting and next to the coast. most of the immediate metro area has yet to go below the mid 40's. we don't really get an "indian summer" because it's usually too late to get back into extended warm wx by the time we get a frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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