Isotherm Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The big story will probably be the coldest daytime temperatures of the autumn season thus far. We may have highs struggle through the mid to upper 50s on Saturday assuming overcast skies. Saturday night will become quite cold with frost possible N / W of NYC given strong surface high pressure. Definitely will feel autumnal this weekend. Weak wave of low pressure along the baroclinic zone will produce some rain, but nothing impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Very mild? Looks pretty average to me I see another +1.5 to +2 type month and higher mins will play a significant role. We're looking at a couple +10 or higher reading early next week while this weekend may only yield a combined -5 or so. Looking ahead it looks like milder weather dominates due to the pacific pattern for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I see another +1.5 to +2 type month and higher mins will play a significant role. We're looking at a couple +10 or higher reading early next week while this weekend may only yield a combined -5 or so. Looking ahead it looks like milder weather dominates due to the pacific pattern for the foreseeable future. Still that's hardly a torch. October 2007 was +6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Still that's hardly a torch. October 2007 was +6.9 Yea but that month was off the charts hot. Some very late season 80s and 90s that month. Disgusting, and so was the winter that followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Yea but that month was off the charts hot. Some very late season 80s and 90s that month. Disgusting, and so was the winter that followed. Hit 89 here on 10/8/07 and by far the warmest Oct here during 37 years of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The big story will probably be the coldest daytime temperatures of the autumn season thus far. We may have highs struggle through the mid to upper 50s on Saturday assuming overcast skies. Saturday night will become quite cold with frost possible N / W of NYC given strong surface high pressure. Definitely will feel autumnal this weekend. Weak wave of low pressure along the baroclinic zone will produce some rain, but nothing impressive. This even that you are talking about ive have had my eyes on it for a while. It seems like this storm is just the remains of a tropical system that was from out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The 18z GFS is further north than its 12z run and soaks all of us with more than an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Is it me or does the Euro and GGEM show a tropical disturbance riding up the coast in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Does this pattern on the day 7 Euro bring back memories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Navgem also shows a lot of rain for the same timeframe that the Euro and GGEM shows the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Is it me or does the Euro and GGEM show a tropical disturbance riding up the coast in the long range? No, its associated with a Cut off Low, a trough coming east next week and/or a strong cold front. It helps to read discussions like this sometimes, rather than just looking/posting model maps and make assumptions: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The southward shift by the NAM for Saturday's rains is bringing back some horrible memories from last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The southward shift by the NAM for Saturday's rains is bringing back some horrible memories from last March. NAM also finally caught on that the rain is over by 8am to 11am for NYC. Previous runs had an all day Saturday washout. Euro and GFS have had the rain ending at 8am for several runs now. Looks like the whole weekend will be salvaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 NAM also finally caught on that the rain is over by 8am to 11am for NYC. Previous runs had an all day Saturday washout. Euro and GFS have had the rain ending at 8am for several runs now. Looks like the whole weekend will be salvaged. Yep probably end up another overnight half incher followed by quick clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Yep probably end up another overnight half incher followed by quick clearing Agree. Maybe even less. 12z Rgem has the rain over by 8am and barely .25" for NYC. More to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The middle of next week could be very active with a deep long wave trough digging all the way to the Gulf and a very amplified pattern in general shaping up. The 00z ECMWF, 00z GGEM and now the 12z GFS are all on board. Could be a cut off low to our southwest with a possible tropical infusion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The 12z Euro is much wetter and brings the .75 inch line to NYC. It's ensemble mean also moved north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The 12z Euro is much wetter and brings the .75 inch line to NYC. It's ensemble mean also moved north. Timing is still 90% of the rain before 8am and ending 10am-11am for NYC. 18z NAM is back to the idea of pouring rain through 2pm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Timing is still 90% of the rain before 8am and ending 10am-11am for NYC. 18z NAM is back to the idea of pouring rain through 2pm again. It also has the .5 line reaching well in to the Hudson valley and CT which is wetter than 12z. Right now the Euro, GFS and NAM have about 0.75 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It also has the .5 line reaching well in to the Hudson valley and CT which is wetter than 12z. Right now the Euro, GFS and NAM have about 0.75 inches for NYC. Gfs has just about an inch.. Gone by 12z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 LOL. Besides me and maybe 1-2 more members, I doubt anyone understands the meaning of "bunker pods". Nice. Biggest one I have ever seen by many times this summer right off jones beach. About a half mile long and so thick it looked like you could walk on them. I snagged a bunch and tried for a bass but no luck. Also to stay on topic I missed posting about the wind event the other night. Some solid 40mph gusts here with small branches and one half tree down in my neighborhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Looks like the rain is going to end early afternoon tomorrow for the NYC area. Going out for my birthday tomorrow so hopefully it clears up by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Too bad it's not a few months later-this would be an easy 6-12" type snow event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Too bad it's not a few months later-this would be an easy 6-12" type snow event for the area. More like 3"-6". 12z Rgem and 12z GFS have .25"-.50"/.50"-.65" for NYC. Bigger totals are south in Jersey. NAM is likely overdone, as it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 More like 3"-6". 12z Rgem and 12z GFS have .25"-.50"/.50"-.65" for NYC. Bigger totals are south in Jersey. NAM is likely overdone, as it usually is. The NAM actually got wetter at 12z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Too bad it's not a few months later-this would be an easy 6-12" type snow event for the area. Winter will be here before you know it. Just purchased a 2 stage snowblower. I'm ready to roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Euro, Rgem, Ukmet, Gfs, Ggem: .25"-.50" of rain Nam: .75"-1.25" OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Another wimper on the way. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Another wimper on the way. Yawn. Love the fall feel though with cooler temps, a light breeze, and cloudy showery days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Still working in shorts...mild october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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