TonyLovesSnow Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I'm 99% sure that our severe weather is done. Sorry to break it to you severe weather weenies. There's just no way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I'm 99% sure that our severe weather is done. Sorry to break it to you severe weather weenies. There's just no way ! Did you just call earthlight a weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 I'm 99% sure that our severe weather is done. Sorry to break it to you severe weather weenies. There's just no way !Very insightful, some of your references were from objective points of view but alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Did you just call earthlight a weenie? And Quincy....2 of the best mets on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I'm 99% sure that our severe weather is done. Sorry to break it to you severe weather weenies. There's just no way ! No way?Care to eloborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 How come the Euro and to an extent the GFS are so much more wet than the NAM? The Euro had over half an inch for the tristate and the GFS was close to that. The NAM barely has a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 How come the Euro and to an extent the GFS are so much more wet than the NAM? The Euro had over half an inch for the tristate and the GFS was close to that. The NAM barely has a tenth.The GFS has a tendency to "smooth" out convection, most of the more steady rain is NW of us so our area will likely have the typical totals of summertime convection, some areas will see an inch or so while others see almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 How come the Euro and to an extent the GFS are so much more wet than the NAM? The Euro had over half an inch for the tristate and the GFS was close to that. The NAM barely has a tenth. MT HOLLY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SWINGING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE ISOLATED OR SCT THUNDER IN E PA/NW NJ AND POSSIBLY E MD, AND CERTAINLY A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN DECREASING CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF KPHL. AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH. PWAT 1.3 INCHES AND DIFFLUENT THICKNESS COULD YIELD A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN E PA AND WESTERN NJ LATE TUE EVENING. FROM THE MID SHIFT DISCUSSION: AN IMPRESSIVE 55-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ONCE AGAIN AN INTERIOR TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE CWA. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. LACK OF MLCAPE LIMITS SVR POTENTIAL BUT 40 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A TSTM I95 NWWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Lol at the Sandy-esque LR of the 18z Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Where is that, Don? Larchmont Reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 How come the Euro and to an extent the GFS are so much more wet than the NAM? The Euro had over half an inch for the tristate and the GFS was close to that. The NAM barely has a tenth. The NAM is hilarious-what a joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Quite breezy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 All of the major models except for the NAM salvage 80%+ of Saturday. The NAM is a total washout. The GGEM is way south and a distant outlier. The GFS is a bit more robust than the Euro. We'll have to see which camp the models sway towards today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 All of the major models except for the NAM salvage 80%+ of Saturday. The NAM is a total washout. The GGEM is way south and a distant outlier. The GFS is a bit more robust than the Euro. We'll have to see which camp the models sway towards today. I'd lean towards drier, at least up here that has been the trend for months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The 12z NAM continues to be wet with up to 1.50"+ for parts of the region Friday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The 12z NAM continues to be wet with up to 1.50"+ for parts of the region Friday into Sunday. GFS paints a similar scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 GFS paints a similar scenario. 6z GFS ended the rain by 8am Saturday. 12z NAM is total washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 6z GFS ended the rain by 8am Saturday. 12z NAM is total washout. NAM is most likely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 NAM is most likely out to lunch. Agree. The 0z euro is further south and also ends most of the rain by 7-8am Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Agree. The 0z euro is further south and also ends most of the rain by 7-8am Saturday. It's also much weaker in general. The 6z GFS is a ton of rain. I'm wonder if the 12z continues that wet look. I'll give it to the NAM with last night's event though. It was very dry for our area and most places around the tristate got very little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I am hoping there is no rain sunday so i can actually get on some bunker pods outside fire island inlet after work! Sunday and yesterday were a no go because of rough seas in the bay and ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 The 12z GFS is much stronger but it's about 50 miles south of the NAM and still salvages most of the day. QPF bullseye is over Central NJ as opposed to NNJ on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I am hoping there is no rain sunday so i can actually get on some bunker pods outside fire island inlet after work! Sunday and yesterday were a no go because of rough seas in the bay and ocean LOL. Besides me and maybe 1-2 more members, I doubt anyone understands the meaning of "bunker pods". Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 My companies annual golf outing is this Saturday morning and some of us take off Friday and play too. Hoping for dry weather here. The course we play doesn't drain well. (Great Gorge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 LOL. Besides me and maybe 1-2 more members, I doubt anyone understands the meaning of "bunker pods". Nice. Yea probably shouldve just said school of big bait fish instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 LOL. Besides me and maybe 1-2 more members, I doubt anyone understands the meaning of "bunker pods". Nice. Im sure more people than that knows about bunker pods. Ive worked fishing boats for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 You would think that with such a negative AO/NAO that we would see more cooler, stormier conditions. The rest of this month looks very mild but probably wetter so that's never a bad thing. I don't care if October torches because it's how the parameters are setting up that matters and if we're able to get those -AO/NAO periods along with a good Siberian snow advance, and how NPAC SSTs are doing are what matters. November is another story though, most below average Novembers set the tone for the following winter so I wouldn't want a November torch at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 You would think that with such a negative AO/NAO that we would see more cooler, stormier conditions. The rest of this month looks very mild but probably wetter so that's never a bad thing. I don't care if October torches because it's how the parameters are setting up that matters and if we're able to get those -AO/NAO periods along with a good Siberian snow advance, and how NPAC SSTs are doing are what matters. November is another story though, most below average Novembers set the tone for the following winter so I wouldn't want a November torch at all. Very mild? Looks pretty average to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Change the 10C line to 0C during the winter on these models and we'd have one heck of a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Dry begets dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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