TonyLovesSnow Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think October gradually gets cooler not colder but since it'll be on the wet side as fall should be technically autumns that are dry end up having a colder winter. This is why I think it will not get cold right away. For NYC I expect this month temperature to be below a (-1) degree. As this late October should bring nice snows through ohio valley and build that snow pack. Poconos will get some mixture at the end of the month but snows should cover some Southern Michigan and Ohio valley. Hope you enjoy your day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think October gradually gets cooler not colder but since it'll be on the wet side as fall should be technically autumns that are dry end up having a colder winter. This is why I think it will not get cold right away. For NYC I expect this month temperature to be below a (-1) degree. As this late October should bring nice snows through ohio valley and build that snow pack. Poconos will get some mixture at the end of the month but snows should cover some Southern Michigan and Ohio valley. Hope you enjoy your day... Snowpack in October? It can snow but it won't stick around that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 GEFS even more bullish today than yesterday on a big -AO drop. If a drop that big verifies, it would have the lowest readings since March into early April 2013. Lowest daily AO reading 4-6-13 to 10-1-14.....2014 1 27 -2.605 today yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 You can call me weird but I love these kinds of days ( cool and dreary) . I just took my a.c out of the window. Ready for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Snowpack in October? It can snow but it won't stick around that early The longest duration autumn snowpack I can recall was when I lived in SE PA for the October 29-30th event of 2011, the precursor to a craptastic winter. We had about 5" of snow with temps around 32F and the plows going down the highway in midday. That snow cover lasted for a good 5 days, into early November, as temperatures were well below normal. Not something I'd like to see repeated. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/29-Oct-11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 with the ao forecast to plunge here are the winters with the highest ao minimum for the season... 1988-89...-0.318... 1974-75...-1.695 1972-73...-2.044 1999-00...-2.118 2006-07...-2.184 1992-93...-2.228 1987-88...-2.314 2007-08...-2.468 1991-92...-2.597 2013-14...-2.605 1960-61...-2.719 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 40's for possible for NYC metro behind the cold front on Sunday night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Nothing measurable today with a cool high of 63 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 My 9PM flight from LGA to MCO is delayed 1 hour and 45 minutes from this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Today is exactly what I expect early October to be like; cool and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Today is exactly what I expect early October to be like; cool and cloudy. To be fair this is more like late October. Our average high is still near 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 What was the highs today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 My high was 68...I am seeing low to perhaps some mid 70s on my forecast for next week...only one day of real cool on Sunday and then moderating nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The longest duration autumn snowpack I can recall was when I lived in SE PA for the October 29-30th event of 2011, the precursor to a craptastic winter. We had about 5" of snow with temps around 32F and the plows going down the highway in midday. That snow cover lasted for a good 5 days, into early November, as temperatures were well below normal. Not something I'd like to see repeated. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/29-Oct-11.html Please ... No Oct snow, that event laid 3.5" of snow and sleet here and lasted three days and that was the highlight of that awful winter. 79 was similar but lasted less and the winter stunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 late October 2002 we got two consecutive nights with sleet that stuck in some places...That winter wasn't to bad...1925 had an inch near the end of the month and NYC got two 10"+ storms in a one week period in February...1962, 1979 and 1972 had some measurable snow in places and the winter stunk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 My high was 68...I am seeing low to perhaps some mid 70s on my forecast for next week...only one day of real cool on Sunday and then moderating nicely Things do still look quite warm despite the negative AO/NAO which I guess still isn't enough to override the pattern. I think we'll see a couple more days in the 80s next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The GFS ensembles are hinting at the first -3 or lower AO reading since March into April 2013. So we should easily clear the -2 hurdle. NYC seasonal snowfall totals since 2002 following October daily AO reading below -2: 02-03........49.3" 03-04........42.6" 04-05........41.0" 06-07........12.4" plenty of sleet but later blocking lead to cold February with a -6.3 temperature departure 09-10........51.4" 10-11........61.9" 12-13........26.1".....Islip 46.9" with February 2013 blizzard jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The GFS ensembles are hinting at the first -3 or lower AO reading since March into April 2013. So we should easily clear the -2 hurdle. NYC seasonal snowfall totals since 2002 following October daily AO reading below -2: 02-03........49.3" 03-04........42.6" 04-05........41.0" 06-07........12.4" plenty of sleet but later blocking lead to cold February with a -6.3 temperature departure 09-10........51.4" 10-11........61.9" 12-13........26.1".....Islip 46.9" with February 2013 blizzard jackpot ao.sprd2.gif Interestingly enough, a similar but lesser (than currently forecast) dive in the AO took place around 10/10 in 2009 as an El Niño was taking hold. Currently, an El Niño may be in the early stages of development, though the SSTAs are somewhat cooler than where they were in 2009. A little less than two weeks later, another impressive block developed in 2009. It will be interesting to see how things evolve this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Interestingly enough, a similar but lesser (than currently forecast) dive in the AO took place around 10/10 in 2009 as an El Niño was taking hold. Currently, an El Niño may be in the early stages of development, though the SSTAs are somewhat cooler than where they were in 2009. A little less than two weeks later, another impressive block developed in 2009. It will be interesting to see how things evolve this time around. Yeah, we also saw a late September rise in the AO like this year before the drop in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The models seem to have to a consensus of right around .5" of rain for Saturday. The GFS exits the precip by noon so we might salvage some of the day. After last week though I'm not putting too much stock into model QPF. We'll see if the last minute trend towards a drier solution continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Big rutgers-michigan game on saturday so hopefully rain is over in the morning as to not hamper tailgating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Big rutgers-michigan game on saturday so hopefully rain is over in the morning as to not hamper tailgating Looks like it will be over by 2pmish. According to the 12z Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Bit of a trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Pouring pretty good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Pouring pretty good hereYeah some nice rains this morning, up to 0.58" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Some pretty heavy rain for a bit near the Triboro...gotta be nearing .75 by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Some pretty heavy rain for a bit near the Triboro...gotta be nearing .75 by now. LGA reporting 0.72 as of 10:51AM, so that sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 LGA reporting 0.72 as of 10:51AM, so that sounds about right. Not a bad guess. Im soaked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 0.60". Decent rain event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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