IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 September 30th..recent years is October 1st, 1992...Wow. We are really behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Wow. We are really behind. Why? Thats the earliest not the average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Why? Thats the earliest not the averageOops. Sorry. I misread my comment. I thought it was in response to the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Upton for next week"DESPITE THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTIES...OVERALL CONFIDENCEIS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...ANDWET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I guess we'll have to see exactly where the cutoff occurs to know where the dry slot sets up. The very strong block to the north will really slow the cutoff down to a crawl. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png Wouldn't that also argue for the cutoff to be further south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Oops. Sorry. I misread my comment. I thought it was in response to the average. Average ('81-'10) first sub-40 low: KEWR - Oct 17 KJFK - Oct 21 KNYC - Oct 23 KLGA - Oct 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Pretty decent shower here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Average ('81-'10) first sub-40 low: KEWR - Oct 17 KJFK - Oct 21 KNYC - Oct 23 KLGA - Oct 31 Thanks. We might be ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Frost/freeze advisories up for parts of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 This is probably our only chance at a frost or freeze until November looking at the model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Looks like New England will get the heaviest rains from the cutoff low next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Windy cool and overcast...perfect fall day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Windy cool and overcast...perfect fall day Agree, especially if you work outdoors. Tonight is going to be really nice to sleep. Low 40s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 This is probably our only chance at a frost or freeze until November looking at the model data. At LGA...their first freeze sometimes holds off until December...very long growing season there...probably pushing 240 days...similar to the Tidewater of Virginia, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Even Dallas (DFW) freezes earlier than LGA. Atlanta (ATL) freezes earlier than LGA, NYC, and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 At LGA...their first freeze sometimes holds off until December...very long growing season there...probably pushing 240 days...similar to the Tidewater of Virginia, I suppose. Yes often their first snow event is their first freeze but it looks like many places are going to fall behind on their average first frost and freeze if tonight doesn't deliver even further inland and into most of NJ away from the coast. Also while today is cool and breezy it's still a far cry from how chilly it could be sometimes in mid October. I remember a few years back of mid 40 highs for multiple days in mid and latter October and we already had a day similar to today this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 At LGA...their first freeze sometimes holds off until December...very long growing season there...probably pushing 240 days...similar to the Tidewater of Virginia, I suppose. Most of the city will struggle to drop below 40 tonight I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Most of the city will struggle to drop below 40 tonight I think I mean, I haven't even looked at a weather map to see where the anticyclone is...but I see Chicago / O'Hare...which is a pretty cold station well outside the UHI...only fell to 33 F this morning...so, at first glance...does not seem to be a terribly anomalously cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I mean, I haven't even looked at a weather map to see where the anticyclone is...but I see Chicago / O'Hare...which is a pretty cold station well outside the UHI...only fell to 33 F this morning...so, at first glance...does not seem to be a terribly anomalously cold air mass. The core of the coldest 850mb temps are well to their NE over the Lakes/Northeast -- they had an 850mb temp around +5c this morning. Would expect colder lows overall in the Northeast given generally 0c or lower 850mb temps heading into this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 The core of the coldest 850mb temps are well to their NE over the Lakes/Northeast -- they had an 850mb temp around +5c this morning. Would expect colder lows overall in the Northeast given generally 0c or lower 850mb temps heading into this evening. Yeah...I just looked at the 6z GFS simulation...in its attempt to depict reality...which, as I once said of George C Scott, made a better Patton than Patton. Anyway...the high was centered over the Show Me State @ 12z this morning...but the core of the cold, was, as you said, over the NE & Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Why does interior central nj have frost advisories and se nj is in a frz warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Why does interior central nj have frost advisories and se nj is in a frz warning? Rhetorical questions need no reply... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Euro is pretty wet now for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Nyc/ct/LI all over a inch...ct gets the most rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Currently 49.2 IMBY. Headed for the coldest night since April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Currently 49.2 IMBY. Headed for the coldest night since April. Yeah temps should drop off quickly this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Meteor shower tonight? I just saw 2. Anyway, need to lose this wind out here if there is going to be any frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 49 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Down to 45 already here in Queens...The low was supposed to be 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 39 at Rutgers already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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