IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Quite the interesting setup on the GFS for more active weather next week. Another 500mb low closes off, this time either overhead or just to our southeast. It likely won't bring excessive rainfall but periods of rain and cool temps look likely for at least a few days. For those wondering, the surface freezing line is up near Montreal so virtually zero chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Halfway through departures NYC: +2.6 EWR: +2.0 LGA: 9+1.8 JFK: +2.2 TTN: +2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Halfway through departures NYC: +2.6 EWR: +2.0 LGA: 9+1.8 JFK: +2.2 TTN: +2.6 +1.9 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The changing of the leaves has really accelerated the past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Another awarm day today...next week will be a harsh reality check yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The HRRR brings the showers and storms currently over central PA through here around 9PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Another awarm day today...next week will be a harsh reality check yuck Today's a really nice day and the next couple should be superb. I am gonna start to miss going outside without extra layers to ideal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The HRRR brings the showers and storms currently over central PA through here around 9PM tonight. I doubt we get anything more than sprinkles as the storm already passed us and the humidity (dew points) are dropping . Have a nice day yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean closes off the 500mb low next week right overhead. Looks like cool temps and precip for the middle of next week are becoming close to a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean closes off the 500mb low next week right overhead. Looks like cool temps and precip for the middle of next week are becoming close to a lock. Yes! Cool and dreary weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Yes! Cool and dreary weather!!It's all for the sake of better foliage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Well the 18z gfs kinda goes nuts with this cutoff next week and it really amplifies it too which could make things a little more interesting than just some rain. Also looks like whatever is in the gulf might be aiding with the moisture. I'm hoping we get a long lasting heavy rain with strong winds nor'easter. There's plenty of model support for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The changing of the leaves has really accelerated the past couple days Noticed this as well...lots of leaves to clean up on the lawn route. Some nice colors popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The GEFS and ECENS are in agreement for type of cut-off and coastal storm for middle of next week. Progressive/collapsing ridge causes shortwave energy dig and cut-off over East Coast. Too early to go into the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The GEFS and ECENS are in agreement for type of cut-off and coastal storm for middle of next week. Progressive/collapsing ridge causes shortwave energy dig and cut-off over East Coast. Too early to go into the details. 0zGEFSf144.gif ECENS500mb.gif There does not seem to be a strong reflection down to the surface. 700mb and 850mb vorticity not as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The 00z ECMWF had a large swath of 5-8" over New England with the cut off low or coastal for next week. Wherever this H5 low closes off is going to be key. If overhead or just to our east the main slug of rain will probably be up towards New England. The 10/16 12z/18z GFS had the system retrograding a bit more and really dumping on the area. Either way, this pattern has great support on the GEFS and Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 First real shot at a hard freeze on Monday morning per the 12z NAM for interior sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 First real shot at a hard freeze on Monday morning per the 12z NAM for interior sections. Taken verbatim, that looks more like a widespread frost / light freeze. I would consider a hard freeze to involve minimum temperatures sub 27F. Still, looks like the first 32F readings for many rural locales outside of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 What's the earliest sub 40 degree low temperature for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Taken verbatim, that looks more like a widespread frost / light freeze. I would consider a hard freeze to involve minimum temperatures sub 27F. Still, looks like the first 32F readings for many rural locales outside of NYC.Right on cue. Average first frost/freeze for my area is around October 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 What's the earliest sub 40 degree low temperature for NYC? Looks like September 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Looks like September 30th How about the average date for the first sub 40 degree low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 How about the average date for the first sub 40 degree low? Oh I have no idea. was just looking at uncle's climate thread Just looking at the past few years it seems to be right around this time...a few days before or after the 20th. Some years earlier and like 2010 it was the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Oh I have no idea. was just looking at uncle's climate thread Just looking at the past few years it seems to be right around this time...a few days before or after the 20th. Some years earlier and like 2010 it was the end of the month Thanks for the help anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Taken verbatim, that looks more like a widespread frost / light freeze. I would consider a hard freeze to involve minimum temperatures sub 27F. Still, looks like the first 32F readings for many rural locales outside of NYC. Over the years I've heard of a few different definitions of a hard freeze. I've heard below 28, below 27 and below 26. I've also heard it has to be at least 2 hours and I've heard it has to be for at least 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Over the years I've heard of a few different definitions of a hard freeze. I've heard below 28, below 27 and below 26. I've also heard it has to be at least 2 hours and I've heard it has to be for at least 3 hours. Yeah I mean dropping to 31 for less than an hour would certainly not qualify. Would have to be at least 28 or under which would of course last a few hours anyway since its not likely to drop from 33 to 27 and back up to 33 within an hour's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Yeah I mean dropping to 31 for less than an hour would certainly not qualify. Would have to be at least 28 or under which would of course last a few hours anyway since its not likely to drop from 33 to 27 and back up to 33 within an hour's time. This is directly from the NWS site "Minimum shelter temperature is forecast to be 28°F or less (slightly lower or higher based on local criteria) during the locally defined growing season." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Last nights euro had 1.00+ of rain for the area during the costal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Last nights euro had 1.00+ of rain for the area during the costal storm I guess we'll have to see exactly where the cutoff occurs to know where the dry slot sets up. The very strong block to the north will really slow the cutoff down to a crawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 What's the earliest sub 40 degree low temperature for NYC? September 30th..recent years is October 1st, 1992... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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