Rtd208 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 All eyes are now on October as we look for atmospheric conditions, trends and obervations that will lead us into the 2014-2015 winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Warm and dry I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 AO and NAO are forecasted to drop to negative levels as we approach October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Definitely lower departures in the start of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 October records and averages from NYC...decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6.........................................3.55"1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"2010's.....58.4.......60.2....57.1......80.8...38.3......86...33......3.57"1870---2009.......56.8............................80.0...36.8.....................3.66"1980---2009.......57.2............................78.9...38.0.....................4.36"Warmest...63.6 in 194763.6 in 200763.1 in 194962.7 in 197161.9 in 1990Coolest...48.6 in 188849.7 in 188950.6 in 192550.6 in 187650.9 in 1869wettest"...16.73 in 200513.31 in 190312.97 in 191309.00 in 192708.63 in 1983driest...0.14 in 19630.28 in 1924 0.36 in 20130.43 in 18790.59 in 18920.66 in 20010.66 in 1909Snowiest"...2.9 in 20110.8 in 19250.5 in 18760.5 in 1952Hottest max..94 in 1941 10/591 in 1939 10/1090 in 1927 10/290 in 1941 10/690 in 1938 10/1789 in 1922 10/5Coolest monthly max...66 in 188870 in 189470 in 189570 in 197771 in 1981Coldest min...28 in 1936 10/2729 in 1879 10/2529 in 1976 10/2729 in 1976 10/2829 in 1925 10/3129 in 1887 10/30 30 in 1879 10/26 30 in 1940 10/19 30 in 1940 10/22 31 in 1871 10/21 31 in 1925 10/29 31 in 1925 10/30 31 in 1936 10/26 31 in 1969 10/24 31 in 1974 10/20 31 in 1975 10/31 31 in 1988 10/31 32 in 1887 10/31 32 in 1876 10/15 32 in 1889 10/24 32 in 1904 10/31 32 in 1917 10/31 32 in 1928 10/30 32 in 1933 10/26 32 in 1933 10/29 32 in 1965 10/29 32 in 1969 10/23 32 in 1972 10/20 32 in 1974 10/19 32 in 1974 10/21 number of 32 or lower minimum... 1925...3 1974...3 1879...2 1887...2 1933...2 1936...2 1940...2 1969...2 1976...2warmest monthly min...45 in 194645 in 197144 in 200443 in 199443 in 1927 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 29, 2014 Author Share Posted September 29, 2014 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Going to swing for the fences. First ten days, below normal temperatures and above average rainfall Middle ten days, Above average temps and average rainfall Last ten days, Below average temps, major noreaster with abundent rainfall and significant snows for interior PA/NY and NNE. KNYC Overall Temperature departure +1.5C Overall Precipitation departure +3.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Going to swing for the fences. First ten days, below normal temperatures and above average rainfall Middle ten days, Above average temps and average rainfall Last ten days, Below average temps, major noreaster with abundent rainfall and significant snows for interior PA/NY and NNE. KNYC Overall Temperature departure +1.5C Overall Precipitation departure +3.75" Did you mean -1.5? You have 2/3 of the month below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Did you mean -1.5? You have 2/3 of the month below average No, I think the middle of the month is going to be well above normal to the point where the rest of the month won't be enough for a negative departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Going to swing for the fences. First ten days, below normal temperatures and above average rainfall Middle ten days, Above average temps and average rainfall Last ten days, Below average temps, major noreaster with abundent rainfall and significant snows for interior PA/NY and NNE. KNYC Overall Temperature departure +1.5C Overall Precipitation departure +3.75" No, I think the first ten days are going to be well above normal to the point where the rest of the month won't be enough for a negative departure. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Hmmm Yeah I screwed that up, fixed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Yeah I screwed that up, fixed now. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 AO and NAO are forecasted to drop to negative levels as we approach October I certainly hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 https://m.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/the-party-is-over-major-pattern-change-coming-for-october-2014/752945191419408/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Going to swing for the fences. Last ten days, Below average temps, major noreaster with abundent rainfall and significant snows for interior PA/NY and NNE. Anything is possible; and in fairness, the last few years have had some anomalously early snowstorms over the interior...but you get into this business, you play the odds...and I think significant snowfall in places like Binghamton, Bradford, the Adirondacks, the hills of New England, & Garrett County Maryland holds off until November...at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I certainly hope not. Common Greenland Blocking in October promotes more Greenland Blocking for DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Anything is possible; and in fairness, the last few years have had some anomalously early snowstorms over the interior...but you get into this business, you play the odds...and I think significant snowfall in places like Binghamton, Bradford, the Adirondacks, the hills of New England, & Garrett County Maryland holds off until November...at the earliest. Anything is possible if you're talking about a deepening system in late October with strong dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 GEFS going for lowest AO readings since January. 2014 1 18 -2.2552014 1 19 -2.4262014 1 20 -2.2272014 1 21 -1.8432014 1 22 -1.2632014 1 23 -0.7742014 1 24 0.2762014 1 25 0.1332014 1 26 -1.4322014 1 27 -2.6052014 1 28 -2.408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 GEFS going for lowest AO readings since January. 2014 1 18 -2.255 2014 1 19 -2.426 2014 1 20 -2.227 2014 1 21 -1.843 2014 1 22 -1.263 2014 1 23 -0.774 2014 1 24 0.276 2014 1 25 0.133 2014 1 26 -1.432 2014 1 27 -2.605 2014 1 28 -2.408 ao.sprd2.gif Does that bold well for our blocking over Greenland during the month of October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 6z Nam dumps a ton of rain tomorrow on LI and S CT-wonder if the 12z shows nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Does that bold well for our blocking over Greenland during the month of October? It would if we verify an October daily AO reading lower than -2.0. Octobers with a daily AO reading below -2.0: 2002 2003 2004 2006 2009 2010 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Suffolk Cty and CT special on the 12z NAM - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Suffolk Cty and CT special on the 12z NAM - Hopefully it clears out of this area by afternoon. On the 9PM flight from LGA to MCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Hopefully it clears out of this area by afternoon. On the 9PM flight from LGA to MCO. not buying it yet, but RGEM, HRRR and RAP all have it give or take a few miles. Would be a good dousing if it materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 It would if we verify an October daily AO reading lower than -2.0. Octobers with a daily AO reading below -2.0: 2002 2003 2004 2006 2009 2010 2012 It's starting to look better and better for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Multiple big rainers possible on the ECMWF as we finally break this borefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 It's starting to look better and better for this winter. I will like our chances if the AO drop below -2 verifies. NYC seasonal snowfall totals since 2002 following October daily AO reading below -2: 02-03........49.3" 03-04........42.6" 04-05........41.0" 06-07........12.4" plenty of sleet but later blocking lead to cold February with a -6.3 temperature departure 09-10........51.4" 10-11........61.9" 12-13........26.1".....Islip 46.9" with February 2013 blizzard jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 What was the AO during October 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Multiple big rainers possible on the ECMWF as we finally break this borefest. I think you may bust with your call for above normal the middle of the month. Though anything can happen the 10-15th look cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I think you may bust with your call for above normal the middle of the month. Though anything can happen the 10-15th look cool Big spread on the GFS ensembles as you would expect at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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