Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Quickly has become my LEAST favorite winter ever. It'll probably be one of those years where we finally get our blocking... in late March. Days and days of cold miserable rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Was thinking the same thing, late Feb blocking leading to a cold and rainy March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 As we all know...forecasting is very, very tough. However, I cannot remember a winter where there were so many bullish, snow filled predictions that have (so far...and I know it's far from over) crashed and burned. Forecasting is like winning the lottery; when success hinges on A, B, C, D, E & F being exactly right, it get's way too difficult to hit them all. Granted someone has to win...and we may before this season's over! But I'm not going to quit my job just because I have ticket to the next Pick Six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Quickly has become my LEAST favorite winter ever. Yeah, it has been pretty lame so far. Cold and dry or wet and warm. Take your pick. What makes it worse is that there hasn't even been any big fantasy events showing on the models for the valley. We can't even get fantasy snow! I wonder if we will manage to hit our average snowfall this year. That is all I want at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah, it has been pretty lame so far. Cold and dry or wet and warm. Take your pick. What makes it worse is that there hasn't even been any big fantasy events showing on the models for the valley. We can't even get fantasy snow! I wonder if we will manage to hit our average snowfall this year. That is all I want at this point. Yep, it's frustrating b/c we haven't really had a torch, and we can't even get the modeling to show us a good pattern. Well, except for the GFS 300+ in the last week. I am still holding out hope, not jumping a cliff like many. Many Nino's are back loaded, so time will tell where we go from here. Like you, I just want a couple of good snows and I am happy for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 We are in Roswell Ga,my son has a gymnastics meet tomorrow,got tickets to the Hawks game Sunday afternoon behind the hawks bench ten rows back #funtimewithmyboys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nicholas my boy won the gold medal today on the rings,he didnt have the greatest day but still finished 7th overall.We compete in Knoxville next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=903738452992672&set=vb.10,0000695779866&type=2&theater¬if_t=video_comment Video of the p-bars,Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Did they include a perfectly timed and perfect track Miller A into the new GFS for today? The snow map looks delicious and the setup is taking place well before hr 180. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Did they include a perfectly timed and perfect track Miller A into the new GFS for today? The snow map looks delicious and the setup is taking place well before hr 180. Interesting. 12z GFS Hour 228: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And the 12z Euro has a similar storm in the same time period. It stays south of us on that run but we're going to have to keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And the 12z Euro has a similar storm in the same time period. It stays south of us on that run but we're going to have to keep an eye on this. No doubt, individual ens will be interesting I bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 That was an almost perfect Miller A track for about as much of the Tennessee Valley as possible in a given storm. It was also followed by major cold, down towards 0 for a large area of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The euro control snow map won't ever come close to looking this good for the entire state of TN again....... I bet. We just jackpotted on it, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The euro control snow map won't ever come close to looking this good for the entire state of TN again....... I bet. We just jackpotted on it, haha. With visual goodness, 12z Euro Ensemble Mean Snow: Control: Units don't even matter, the point is the Euro (and GFS) are sniffing something out during this time period. That is exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Lots of tasty snow looks from the 18z individual GFS ensembles. ALL individual members had at least SOME accumulation shown in TN through day 16. Winter fantasy season has indeed arrived, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 THE TREND TOWARD A COLDER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TODAY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A FAIRLY LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT IS WORTH DISCUSSING AT SOME LENGTH. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC RUN BOTH FAVOR A SHORTER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WAVELENGTH FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WHICH PLACES LARGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH IN TURN SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS SOLUTIONS, BY CONTRAST, HAVE THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED FARTHER EAST NEARER THE GREAT LAKES, INDICATIVE OF A DRIER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK. TELECONNECTING UPON THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE IN ALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELDS A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF, WHILE A TELECONNECTION UPON THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ANALOGS, HOWEVER, TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD, AS DOES THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN TODAY'S FORECAST. UPON INSPECTION OF ALL THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER, THOUGH IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. GFS has been consistent, i must say.Here's a quote from today's CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looks like the Euro caved to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS is rolling Has the northeast storm stronger and a fair amount of cold air on us out to 165. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS is rolling Has the northeast storm stronger and a fair amount of cold air on us out to 165. GFS just took on about 10 flats on that 18 wheeler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's even worse than I thought after looking at the picture again. The 18 wheeler only has 14 wheels. Losing 10 of them has to be catastrophic! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's even worse than I thought after looking at the picture again. The 18 wheeler only has 14 wheels. Losing 10 of them has to be catastrophic! lol The "improved" GFS only has 14 wheels as a result of the sequester. Due to additional budget cuts, 4 of those aren't even allowed to touch the ground. Getting flats on all 10 remaining tires results in something so disastrous and dire that... only the 12z maps can describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The difference in the op GFS and the GEFS at 12z are laughable . The op is on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS showed the best fantasy storm of the season towards the end of the month.Negative tilted trough going through the Valley,goes into the NE for a 50/50 ,970mb pumping cold air down S,end of the run the thickness was down to 507 with the 850's down to -19.2C and still dropping,using the BNA text.850'S AT 0 all the way past Tampa.Just for fantasy purposes only. But we are fixing to head into favorable time for the MJO,As shown here the MJO is fixing to go into p8 though the signals are weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 From Larry's research in the SE forum, weak MJO or even circle of death is best for wintry weather in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 lol..thats the best fantasy storm ive seen in years,way to go new GFS.-30's in the OV,0 all the way to B'Ham and the Valley would get totally snowed in..now that's what i'm talking about..lmao..only if it were true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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