Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've probably spent 8-9 hours on it this week. But I've asked for snow all winter so I'm not complaining. I feel bad for those in Wise and Lee County where buildings have collapsed because of all the snow. The EOC, food bank, and car dealership all fell in in Wise County. A church collapsed in Lee County. A lot of people don't have running water up there. I would say this would be the most snow on the ground for them at one time in 20 years (2-3 feet). My driveway is about 75-100 yards long and is uphill most of the way. The start of the driveway has a good curve in it. That's where the trouble is. I should of finished it yesterday while it was slushy. Man that's some really bad luck with the van sliding. You can't make up some stories, lol. She has had some bad luck right? Didn't she wreck last year? Or was that another member? Here is the start of my driveway looking back to the road. I couldn't shovel the stuff below. Its a solid sheet of ice and I'm out of salt. Yeah I can see how that could be trouble! My wife did play bumper cars last year, the county didn't brine the hill in front of the elementary school. Big pile up of cars slowly sliding into each other. A really nice BMW got hung up on her van's trailer hitch, really did a number on it (the BMW) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I hate picking on MRX...but this borders on absurdity...in the oft chance that 6 out of 7 models are wrong and you are right, the tenn valley gets no snow tonight (you as a wx met believe with 70% certainty), given the conditions of several of the locations wouldn't you go ahead and throw out the possibility of a WWA, especially considering how poorly short term forecasting has faired in the last week or so?. My road is black ice from day time melting and refreeze. You put an inch on top of that and I would have no clue that black ice is under the inch of snow tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Shew, im getting really tired of shoveling. 5 hours a day to shovel my driveway is too much for fat guy. lol. Just saw they issued a few winter weather adv. for a few counties in East Ky for tonight through tommorow. Thats just across the state line for me, just hope its not enough to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I hate picking on MRX...but this borders on absurdity...in the oft chance that 6 out of 7 models are wrong and you are right, the tenn valley gets no snow tonight (you as a wx met believe with 70% certainty), given the conditions of several of the locations wouldn't you go ahead and throw out the possibility of a WWA, especially considering how poorly short term forecasting has faired in the last week or so?. My road is black ice from day time melting and refreeze. You put an inch on top of that and I would have no clue that black ice is under the inch of snow tomorrow morning.Advisories are going up as it type this. I agree with everything you said though. They waited too late to put it out. Shew, im getting really tired of shoveling. 5 hours a day to shovel my driveway is too much for fat guy. lol. Just saw they issued a few winter weather adv. for a few counties in East Ky for tonight through tommorow. Thats just across the state line for me, just hope its not enough to shovel.Just think of it as burning calories! Yeah JKL beat Morristown to the punch as they normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any bets on this GFS? I'll wager it and the GGEM start heading back north a bit for storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any bets on this GFS? I'll wager it and the GGEM start heading back north a bit for storm #2. I'll say GFS stays the same and the GGEM is north by 50-75 miles. I bet the UKMET will be cash money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'll say GFS stays the same and the GGEM is north by 50-75 miles. I bet the UKMET will be cash money. GFS doubling down on the southern track. I'm just hoping the Euro and Ukie don't decide to shift to that tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wonder if Mark Reynolds will mention the WWA at 11:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS doubling down on the southern track. I'm just hoping the Euro and Ukie don't decide to shift to that tonight. You've got to know when to hold 'em Know when to fold 'em Know when to walk away And know when to run You never count your clown maps When you're sittin' at the table There'll be time enough for countin' inches When the dealin's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wonder if Mark Reynolds will mention the WWA at 11:00? He just did mention it but his wording didn't change too much. "1-2 inches on average for NE TN. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Dave Deirks was a little more open with possibilities that models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 He just did mention it but his wording didn't change too much. "1-2 inches on average for NE TN. " Guess he loves his in house model. Went down with the ship a couple of days ago using it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 He just did mention it but his wording didn't change too much. "1-2 inches on average for NE TN. " That may have been the most half assed weather forecast I've ever seen haha. Seriously, he used the Viper model again which spit out the same amounts and geographically showed the snow not making it north of grey tn (less then .5 inches at that) and not much further west then Greenville (?). Then strangely he wraps up the forecast with "most everybody in the tri-cities should see 1-2" inches of snow all the while half the graphics weren't actually working....might of been better off just saying "look, I've worked hard this week covering the last storm, I am tired, it's cold, I want to go home" EDIT: I actually like Mark Reynolds the best of the mets up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah haha. You've got sun angle, solar mins/max, sunspots, cloud thickness, etc. Oh, and don't forget that the atmosphere has to heal first. On a seriously note the sun didn't do jack squat on my driveway today. I'm thinking the whole valley gets 2-3 tonight and into the morning. I feel your pain on the driveway. I parked I 6 inches of slush. It froze and lifted my car just enough to get no traction. I had to pick it out with a coal pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 After shoveling my driveway for two hours yesterday, only to have it re-covered overnight.... I'm curious if anybody has ever tried one of the propane torch kits? http://m.northerntool.com/shop/tools/category_snow-ice-removal+torch-kits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Regarding cancelling winter: I have to be careful with my new found super powers.... Quick measurement has 2.5" now...looks to finally be winding down. Frozen II will feature Mr. Bob. Can you also make photogenic tornadoes that do not hit anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Regarding cancelling winter: Frozen II will feature Mr. Bob. Can you also make photogenic tornadoes that do not hit anyone? Still waiting for this to hit theaters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I feel your pain on the driveway. I parked I 6 inches of slush. It froze and lifted my car just enough to get no traction. I had to pick it out with a coal pick. Bless your heart...and back. The ice frozen underneath is the bear. I just spent 2 hours on my driveway and I'm still not 100% sure I can get out. Came back inside to discover the water is off and my neighbors confirmed it's an area wide outage. It's annoying but it could be worse! Could be power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Bless your heart...and back. The ice frozen underneath is the bear. I just spent 2 hours on my driveway and I'm still not 100% sure I can get out. Came back inside to discover the water is off and my neighbors confirmed it's an area wide outage. It's annoying but it could be worse! Could be power! Oh no Kev! Hope they get it fixed quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Oh no Kev! Hope they get it fixed quickly! It's okay Stove! Drinking melted snow water, taking a snow bath, etc fits in with my ongoing plan to make sure my 17 year old Son is tough enough! Me? Fuhgeddaboudit!!! edited to add: As someone who works outside for a living (surveyor), rarely do I see someone working outside and am thankful I don't have their job. However there are three exceptions. One of those would be the guys working for water utilities during this time of year. Those guys are on call and are called out at all times of the day or night to get down into a hole and work with running water in freezing temps. They are under paid for the most part and the lower paid guys do the worst of the work. They really do a great job and everyone needs to think about them at times like this... Oh, and the other two jobs I'm thankful someone else does? Those roofing or paving during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 How did KTRI only record .9" on Saturday!? No freakin' way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How does everyone think the models are going to wobble at 0z? I think we in the valley have to hope for more ampage like the NAMs of last night and this morning. That might have been a bias of the model though so it may very well end up a weaker compromise solution, say a blend of 18z NAM and 12z Euro. I guess that is what I'll realistically pick for the 0z NAM/RGEM/GFS runs. SREF is liable to go totes cray cray. I sure would love to see a juicier more north and west expansion of the precip as a trend though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 L-O-L on the start times: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Stove, I say a northwest expansion (on the models)of precip as the day progresses. Just a hunch based model trends as the event draws closer. There is a chance this is a nice storm for many. But we know the rules...it's the Valley and is a tough forecast during the best of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I don't get sick of snow but the last two weeks, just tracking threats alone, has been taxing. It's hard to find suitable places to park here from snow plow drifts. It will not hurt my feelings if this storm does a little brush job for upper east tn and plasters cha and other areas. Looks like 60s by next week so it's about to be over soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm starting to get a little nervous. Someone talk me off the ledge! It's 37 degrees here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm starting to get a little nervous. Someone talk me off the ledge! It's 37 degrees here! Precip rates will easily overcome that. You may start off as light rain but you'll quickly turn to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm starting to get a little nervous. Someone talk me off the ledge! It's 37 degrees here! You do understand wet bulb, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 What time does 18z nam start rolling? Sorry, usually not off work at this time. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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