Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Basically, looks like the next two storms create short term 50/50s and "sort of" create high latitude blocking by slowing the jet. Each storm sets the table with cold for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My sister-in-law lives in the northwest quadrant. Two feet plus and they already have had like 4'. Sick, man. Just sick. Drifts will be historic. Basically, looks like the next two storms create short term 50/50s and "sort of" create high latitude blocking by slowing the jet. Each storm sets the table with cold for the next one. The blizzard train keeps rolling for them. Our storm could blow up again and give them another foot. That's really the only place that's had a snowy winter. Us, the Midatlantic, Philly-NYC, and the Ohio Valley have been well below normal. Your right all of these nor'easters are helping us out without the -NAO. I'm not worried really anymore if we don't see a -NAO develop. The Pacific and +PNA has really been helping us out. Somebody brought up 1960 as a analog. Of course that is an extreme analog that would take about 50 years to happen. I could see us getting into a 1960-lite version through March. But we know back in November where looking at analogs got us! I'll be happy if we get a few systems to finish off. Maybe we can finish close to average on snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 The blizzard train keeps rolling for them. Our storm could blow up again and give them another foot. That's really the only place that's had a snowy winter. Us, the Midatlantic, Philly-NYC, and the Ohio Valley have been well below normal. Your right all of these nor'easters are helping us out without the -NAO. I'm not worried really anymore if we don't see a -NAO develop. The Pacific and +PNA has really been helping us out. Somebody brought up 1960 as a analog. Of course that is an extreme analog that would take about 50 years to happen. I could see us getting into a 1960-lite version through March. But we know back in November where looking at analogs got us! I'll be happy if we get a few systems to finish off. Maybe we can finish close to average on snowfall. But November patterns often repeat and I think that is what is happening. We all knew that if that pattern showed itself during winter, it would be impressive. Trying not to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 If get I to normal for snow by the end of March I will be happy. I also think we reach seasonal norms for temps or get close. Basically, a fourth quarter comeback is now on the table. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 But November patterns often repeat and I think that is what is happening. We all knew that if that pattern showed itself during winter, it would be impressive. Trying not to get too excited. Yeah I just thought it would happen about the 3rd week of January. I bought into the hype. You never did and you've said all along that February was going to be where our bread would be buttered. I'm cautiously optimistic too. We still are going to need some good timing with these pieces of energy in the pipeline. That is something that has killed us all winter without a -NAO. We haven't been able to slow the flow down. I think we would of already had a few good events if the forecasts back in November(of a long and consistent -AO/-NAO) had panned. The Cohen teleconnections didn't work out this winter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 TDOT has already started putting out salt. I75 is covered just north of Nooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 TDOT has already started putting out salt. I75 is covered just north of Nooga. A strange decision with some potential rain showers this afternoon and early evening. Though they may not extend all the way down to that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 After coaching basketball all morning, plugged back-in. MANY thanks to tnweathernut for texting and keeping me updated. Looked like a banner day to follow the models. Great disco!!! This thing works out, Stove's sunglasses pic will be legendary and might need to be his new avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Busting out the classic, Cheryl Scott former WBIR weather girl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ok, probably time to create an observations thread for the event. Label the event and then tag it so we can find it later. Mods or those w/ mod-like abilities can then pin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not buying these model trends at all. I have a feeling that a lot of people will be caught unprepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A question, is this a storm with deform band potential or is this going to be a widespread moisture running into cold air? I know wrapped up systems have comma heads and such but this does not appear to be the type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that? Wondering the same thing, lol. To chase snow, eastern KY around London, Hazard, or Jackson looks like the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that? This would be my vehicle of choice, Stove...if I were so inclined. Which I'm not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LOL nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Obs thread is up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wondering the same thing, lol. To chase snow, eastern KY around London, Hazard, or Jackson looks like the sweet spot. As I was just watching Mark Reynolds (upper east tn) weather forecast he showed live viper future model. It's a little strange to me that hazard, and summerset are getting such higher storm totals. His Viper cast showed showed the most intense "precip" running from Knox north, northeast. I guess they are getting the benefit of much higher ratio's or the angel of the warm nose is such that it funnels enough warm air into SWVA to create the difference (8-12 wise, 12-15 KY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As I was just watching Mark Reynolds (upper east tn) weather forecast he showed live viper future model. It's a little strange to me that hazard, and summerset are getting such higher storm totals. His Viper cast showed showed the most intense "precip" running from Knox north, northeast. I guess they are getting the benefit of much higher ratio's or the angel of the warm nose is such that it funnels enough warm air into SWVA to create the difference (8-12 wise, 12-15 KY). I often question the validity of the forecasts in-house models (such as VIPIR) spit out. I've been told that some are a blend of model output, while others are simply the RPM. I haven't looked at any text output, but my guess is that area is where the best combination of moisture and atmospheric conditions exist. FWIW, it was but 24-36 hours ago that that sweet spot was modeled over East Tennessee. So close, yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lots of schools starting to close...Sullivan County just announced closed for tomorrow. I'm guessing they may miss the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ok guys, I'm in White House, TN north of Nashville. Should I go ahead and book the hotel room here or go further north ? How are things looking here ? I don't want to drive somewhere far away and see nothing but ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lots of schools starting to close...Sullivan County just announced closed for tomorrow. I'm guessing they may miss the whole week. Hawkins was closed tomorrow for the holiday already. I agree that the local counties will probably be closed all week. Just heard from my daughter that ETSU has cancelled classes tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dropping this in banter because lolDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Why would anyone want to chase ice? Also what kind of vehicle would be suitable for that? Zamboni! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Next time a southern slider is forecast, I'm going to hype snow totals for Dayton, Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWRAndy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well it sucks having followed this storm for a week for it to get better each day and then turn to all rain 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Always remember this. Latitude means everything. If you want to see forecasters/models get snow right every time, Yellowknife is a good place to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Always remember this. Latitude means everything. If you want to see forecasters/models get snow right every time, Yellowknife is a good place to start. They have the same problem forecasting rain as we do with snow this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow I guess this storm defines why we need mets as opposed to relying on autopilot. I still have no idea if I'll wake up to freezing rain/sleet to rain, or if I'll be looking at a monster snow storm at KTRI, less then 8 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 They have the same problem forecasting rain as we do with snow this time of year. They are like...boys, if we can really get a good warm nose we may finally get rain for the first time in eight months. It is always 31 and snowing. They even have a poster called warmsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.